12/18/2008
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE EARLY BOWL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As promised I'll guide you all the way through the bowl slate this season as to what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about each and every game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The action starts Saturday with FOUR interesting matchups. We normally reserve the weekends here for a look at sharp action in the NFL. So, I decided to devote this late-week edition to study what the sharps are thinking about the college games. On Monday, we'll pick up with another hunk of bowl games...then continue to do them in batches the next several days. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Nobody wants to read about all 34 games at once! And, in many of the later games, the sharps are still waiting for some public action to "counter-punch" against. The story is yet to be written, meaning it's yet to be told from my perspective to you. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Today we'll look at the five games scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. Just check back here at the website on a regular basis to make sure you're continually up to date on the betting news from Las Vegas and Reno. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]EAGLE BANK BOWL
NAVY VS. WAKE FOREST
This isn't exactly a blockbuster debut. But, it's a game that could turn out to be very entertaining. Navy's option offense is known to give some teams fits. Their undersized defense allows opponents to score as well. So, you often have back-and-forth entertaining football when Navy plays in a bowl game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sharps stepped in early on Navy +3.5, and the team side line has sat at Navy +3 ever since. There hasn't been much action since the move because the sharps were happy with their position. This was strictly a value play at the field goal line rather than an all-out endorsement of the Midshipmen. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total here jumped from 41 to 43 early, with clear support for the Over from the guys who specialize in totals. I mentioned that Navy's defense tends to lead to back-and-forth type games. As long as the weather is okay, the sharps are expecting some points to be scored here. The number is low because of Wake Forest's penchant for playing defensive battles in ACC action. That's less likely in a bowl game where the intensity may not be there. Wake Forest gets up for rivals in a way that may not apply to facing Navy. Remember, this is a Wake Forest team that had a shot to win the ACC not many weeks back...and DID win the ACC two seasons ago. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I should note that sharps are watching the weather very closely this weekend all across the East Coast and Midwest. Should it be an issue here, the totals guys will buy back on the Under at 43 or 42 and see if they can hit a side or middle while only risking the juice. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In short...at the openers, it was Navy and Over. There has been very little action since then as the public doesn't bet early and the sharps were happy with their portfolios. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW MEXICO BOWL
FRESNO STATE VS. COLORADO STATE
We had a HUGE move here from Fresno State -4 down to Fresno State -2.5. Some of you may be wondering why I emphasized HUGE. Any line that crosses the three, and doesn't go back represents a very strong move. Three is the most common result in football. Money tends to move toward the three. The fact that it didn't swing back to Fresno State -3 after crossing suggests the sharps think Colorado State has a great chance to win straight up. Sharps didn't go for the middle...they stuck with their full investment on the Rams at +4, +3.5, and at +3. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has come down a little from 61 to 60.5. This is another game where weather could be an issue. Guys would have liked the Over had this game been played in December at either campus site. Mid-December in New Mexico means you have to see what the game day conditions are. Should they be great, we may see some sharp Over money just before kickoff. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, Colorado State and the Under get the early sharp nod. Sharps aren't necessarily betting CSU much at +2.5...but the fact that they didn't reverse course tells you they're expecting a straight up win. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
MEMPHIS VS. SOUTH FLORIDA[/FONT][FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
There was strong early support here for both the dog and the Over. South Florida opened at -14, and got bet immediately down to -12.5 The total went from 51 to 53. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why the big moves?[/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]First of all, most sharps love taking double digit dogs in bowl games...particularly the early ones. Any big favorite playing an early bowl is likely to be a good team who's disappointed to be stuck in a no-name early bowl! Flat performances are common. So, if you don't tell the sharps who's playing...but tell them the spread is -14, they'll take the dog blind. In this case, South Florida has been playing with so little fire this year that the choice was easy. Sharps took Memphis +14, +13.5 and at +13. They're hoping the public comes in on the favorite so they can get some more at +13 or better. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total move is because Florida weather usually helps postseason scoring (good conditions, and anyone from North of Florida is prone to wilt in the heat defensively). And, South Florida in particular is a team that can play high scoring games. When they care, the offense keeps attacking all game. When they don't, turnovers set up easy points for the opposition. Frankly, I think both of these were pretty bad openers. Oddsmakers should have known sharps would hit the dog and Over in this matchup. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU VS. ARIZONA
This is easily the best matchup so far...but the sharps aren't betting much! There's respect for both programs. I knew guys in particular who were looking to bet Arizona in the right kind of matchup. They were hoping for a better option than laying a field goal to somebody like BYU. The Cougars have a decent history in this bowl game, even if their fans are famous for coming to town and not spending much money! [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There's been nothing of note on the team side yet. The total has gone up a tick from 61 to 61.5. We've had some very weird weather in Nevada this week...so the totals guys are definitely waiting to see what the game day conditions are going to be. I'm guessing that will trigger affection for either the Under or the Over. Both offenses are at the mercy of game conditions to a degree. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, there's no guidance I can give you regarding the sharp approach to this game. They will definitely go against the public if square money takes the game off that field goal in either direction. Keep that in mind as you monitor pointspreads on game day. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ORLEANS BOWL
TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
We move to Sunday now for the last game of the weekend. It's the New Orleans Bowl, which may not get much of a TV audience outside the Southeast. Seriously, who would watch THIS game instead of Carolina/NY Giants at the same time in the NFL? Well, gambling degenerates would....so both games will be on the big screen TV's in Nevada sportsbooks. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps liked Troy and the Under at the early numbers. Troy -3 has been bet up to Troy -4.5. Everyone remembers that Troy almost knocked off LSU in Baton Rouge. That got a lot of respect. Southern Miss is in its first year under a new head coach and a new offense, and may not be ready for the challenge that a postseason game presents. The opening total of 56 was bet down to 54.5. I'm told that's because of some personnel situations. I'm not much of a totals guy anyway...and I REALLY don't want to spend my time figuring out totals developments in a game like Troy/Southern Miss. Guys in the know liked Under 56, Under 55.5, and Under 55. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE EARLY BOWL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As promised I'll guide you all the way through the bowl slate this season as to what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about each and every game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The action starts Saturday with FOUR interesting matchups. We normally reserve the weekends here for a look at sharp action in the NFL. So, I decided to devote this late-week edition to study what the sharps are thinking about the college games. On Monday, we'll pick up with another hunk of bowl games...then continue to do them in batches the next several days. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Nobody wants to read about all 34 games at once! And, in many of the later games, the sharps are still waiting for some public action to "counter-punch" against. The story is yet to be written, meaning it's yet to be told from my perspective to you. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Today we'll look at the five games scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. Just check back here at the website on a regular basis to make sure you're continually up to date on the betting news from Las Vegas and Reno. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]EAGLE BANK BOWL
NAVY VS. WAKE FOREST
This isn't exactly a blockbuster debut. But, it's a game that could turn out to be very entertaining. Navy's option offense is known to give some teams fits. Their undersized defense allows opponents to score as well. So, you often have back-and-forth entertaining football when Navy plays in a bowl game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sharps stepped in early on Navy +3.5, and the team side line has sat at Navy +3 ever since. There hasn't been much action since the move because the sharps were happy with their position. This was strictly a value play at the field goal line rather than an all-out endorsement of the Midshipmen. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total here jumped from 41 to 43 early, with clear support for the Over from the guys who specialize in totals. I mentioned that Navy's defense tends to lead to back-and-forth type games. As long as the weather is okay, the sharps are expecting some points to be scored here. The number is low because of Wake Forest's penchant for playing defensive battles in ACC action. That's less likely in a bowl game where the intensity may not be there. Wake Forest gets up for rivals in a way that may not apply to facing Navy. Remember, this is a Wake Forest team that had a shot to win the ACC not many weeks back...and DID win the ACC two seasons ago. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I should note that sharps are watching the weather very closely this weekend all across the East Coast and Midwest. Should it be an issue here, the totals guys will buy back on the Under at 43 or 42 and see if they can hit a side or middle while only risking the juice. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In short...at the openers, it was Navy and Over. There has been very little action since then as the public doesn't bet early and the sharps were happy with their portfolios. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW MEXICO BOWL
FRESNO STATE VS. COLORADO STATE
We had a HUGE move here from Fresno State -4 down to Fresno State -2.5. Some of you may be wondering why I emphasized HUGE. Any line that crosses the three, and doesn't go back represents a very strong move. Three is the most common result in football. Money tends to move toward the three. The fact that it didn't swing back to Fresno State -3 after crossing suggests the sharps think Colorado State has a great chance to win straight up. Sharps didn't go for the middle...they stuck with their full investment on the Rams at +4, +3.5, and at +3. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has come down a little from 61 to 60.5. This is another game where weather could be an issue. Guys would have liked the Over had this game been played in December at either campus site. Mid-December in New Mexico means you have to see what the game day conditions are. Should they be great, we may see some sharp Over money just before kickoff. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, Colorado State and the Under get the early sharp nod. Sharps aren't necessarily betting CSU much at +2.5...but the fact that they didn't reverse course tells you they're expecting a straight up win. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
MEMPHIS VS. SOUTH FLORIDA[/FONT][FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
There was strong early support here for both the dog and the Over. South Florida opened at -14, and got bet immediately down to -12.5 The total went from 51 to 53. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why the big moves?[/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]First of all, most sharps love taking double digit dogs in bowl games...particularly the early ones. Any big favorite playing an early bowl is likely to be a good team who's disappointed to be stuck in a no-name early bowl! Flat performances are common. So, if you don't tell the sharps who's playing...but tell them the spread is -14, they'll take the dog blind. In this case, South Florida has been playing with so little fire this year that the choice was easy. Sharps took Memphis +14, +13.5 and at +13. They're hoping the public comes in on the favorite so they can get some more at +13 or better. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total move is because Florida weather usually helps postseason scoring (good conditions, and anyone from North of Florida is prone to wilt in the heat defensively). And, South Florida in particular is a team that can play high scoring games. When they care, the offense keeps attacking all game. When they don't, turnovers set up easy points for the opposition. Frankly, I think both of these were pretty bad openers. Oddsmakers should have known sharps would hit the dog and Over in this matchup. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU VS. ARIZONA
This is easily the best matchup so far...but the sharps aren't betting much! There's respect for both programs. I knew guys in particular who were looking to bet Arizona in the right kind of matchup. They were hoping for a better option than laying a field goal to somebody like BYU. The Cougars have a decent history in this bowl game, even if their fans are famous for coming to town and not spending much money! [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There's been nothing of note on the team side yet. The total has gone up a tick from 61 to 61.5. We've had some very weird weather in Nevada this week...so the totals guys are definitely waiting to see what the game day conditions are going to be. I'm guessing that will trigger affection for either the Under or the Over. Both offenses are at the mercy of game conditions to a degree. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, there's no guidance I can give you regarding the sharp approach to this game. They will definitely go against the public if square money takes the game off that field goal in either direction. Keep that in mind as you monitor pointspreads on game day. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ORLEANS BOWL
TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
We move to Sunday now for the last game of the weekend. It's the New Orleans Bowl, which may not get much of a TV audience outside the Southeast. Seriously, who would watch THIS game instead of Carolina/NY Giants at the same time in the NFL? Well, gambling degenerates would....so both games will be on the big screen TV's in Nevada sportsbooks. [/FONT]
[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps liked Troy and the Under at the early numbers. Troy -3 has been bet up to Troy -4.5. Everyone remembers that Troy almost knocked off LSU in Baton Rouge. That got a lot of respect. Southern Miss is in its first year under a new head coach and a new offense, and may not be ready for the challenge that a postseason game presents. The opening total of 56 was bet down to 54.5. I'm told that's because of some personnel situations. I'm not much of a totals guy anyway...and I REALLY don't want to spend my time figuring out totals developments in a game like Troy/Southern Miss. Guys in the know liked Under 56, Under 55.5, and Under 55. [/FONT]
