quantumleap said:
By betting against the poor road teams it usually is playing the favorites but what I have been coming across is if you find the poor teams to bet against rather than say heavy favorites there are games on their road trip that the oddsmakers find the 2 teams as even.
Lets take TB for instance. On their last road trip it took till game 4 to get the win but it was against Seattle that they lost by more than 3 runs. The payout was Huge.
I think you are very much on the right track to find a a system of over 2 runs. It would be nice to see what you come up with as well.
Are you thinking a progression style of play or just single game bets?
Love to hear your thoughts.
FullyEclipsed
what id like to come up with and i did enjoy the different ideas--- is a system that offers:
1. 100% mechanical: just plug it in and it works.
2. Flat betting as a requirement: progressions are too dangerous (for me).
3. Moneyline dogs, that hit 50%. simply collect the juice.
4. Multi-sport, works for all of them.
Now wouldnt that be nice..
I have been working on one since saturday and am test driving it today..
Here's to .500
1. 100% mechanical: just plug it in and it works.
2. Flat betting as a requirement: progressions are too dangerous (for me).
3. Moneyline dogs, that hit 50%. simply collect the juice.
4. Multi-sport, works for all of them.
Now wouldnt that be nice..
I have been working on one since saturday and am test driving it today..
Here's to .500
FullyEclipsed said:
I'm thinking that one wouldn't have to bet progressions if the percentage were an advantage simply by making single bets. I haven't crunched the numbers though so I don't know if that system would cover without progression bets.
Have you thought about excluding teams that didn't fit the system? In other words, find the teams at this time of the season that didn't have a positive return using the system and exclude them?
quantumleap said:
I completly understand that it is better to work on a system that doesn't require making a progression. I think that a good system like that is something that takes a lot of time to research but once it is in place it should be fairly easy to keep the numbers updated.
For me personally I don't mind playing progression on a system. I think the key to that is to not have several series going at once and also for it to not be the main way of making your bets.
Meaning I just have it on the side of everything else and it won't break me by any means and it seems to be doing really well for me so I have plenty of winnings that I am playing off of.
To answer your question about exluding teams. This system can't be any more basic. It is stricly using the last 20 road games and playing against teams that are averaging 2 more on the ERA to Runs scored.
Teams have gone in and out of play but for the most part KC and Min have been the 2 teams that I have been crushing the books on.
As you have said there are so many times that the winning team wins by 2 or more runs. I am just trying to cash in on the big payday of the -2.5 runs.
Good luck in all your research in working a good system.
my new sides system is 13-7, +18.93 for all of its plays the 1st 3 days.i have not played all of those yet because it is too early to tell how successful it will be....
there is good logic behid it though:
i use these ratings:
AEQR, AEQRA: EQR and EQRA, adjusted for strength of schedule: the
quality of their opponent's pitching and hitting. If AEQR is higher than EQR,
the team has faced better than average pitching; if AEQRA is higher than EQRA, the team has faced worse than average hitting.
the numbers indicate how much a team has over-achieved (been lucky) and vice versa.
i add up these rating differentials and divide by 2 to see how many units i should bet on the under-achieving team...
the marlins vs. reds would be the biggest play because the reds have gotten 4.8 more wins then they "should" have and the marlins (believe it or not) have missed 5.7 wins that they "should" of had....therefore the play would me Marlins ML for 4.8+5.7 = 5.25 units.
there is good logic behid it though:
i use these ratings:
AEQR, AEQRA: EQR and EQRA, adjusted for strength of schedule: the
quality of their opponent's pitching and hitting. If AEQR is higher than EQR,
the team has faced better than average pitching; if AEQRA is higher than EQRA, the team has faced worse than average hitting.
the numbers indicate how much a team has over-achieved (been lucky) and vice versa.
i add up these rating differentials and divide by 2 to see how many units i should bet on the under-achieving team...
the marlins vs. reds would be the biggest play because the reds have gotten 4.8 more wins then they "should" have and the marlins (believe it or not) have missed 5.7 wins that they "should" of had....therefore the play would me Marlins ML for 4.8+5.7 = 5.25 units.
encouraging start bznofx.........
mine has gone 5-6 (+0.25 units) in its first 2 days of wagering, with real money..
back testing on mine was really good but i cant be convinced of anything until the real money is placed...
im posting a trial run of 50 plays, but thats just for posting purposes... My goal is to go 25-25 and collect all the juice, as this is a ML dog system...
my ultimate goal is to adapt this system to the 4 major pro sports and wager like this from now on..
looking for that edge to win exactly 1/2 of my wagers placed, by betting on LIVE dogs..
out for the evening, good luck guys..
mine has gone 5-6 (+0.25 units) in its first 2 days of wagering, with real money..
back testing on mine was really good but i cant be convinced of anything until the real money is placed...
im posting a trial run of 50 plays, but thats just for posting purposes... My goal is to go 25-25 and collect all the juice, as this is a ML dog system...
my ultimate goal is to adapt this system to the 4 major pro sports and wager like this from now on..
looking for that edge to win exactly 1/2 of my wagers placed, by betting on LIVE dogs..
out for the evening, good luck guys..
