What price should this prop be ?

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First score in the KC vs. Oakland game will be


Touchdown

Field Goal or Safety


If game ends 0-0 , no action.


Am I wrong thinking the TD should be about -175 and the FG and Safety about +150 like this


TD -175
FG or Safety + 150

Something like that or would you make it -110/-110.
 
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The safety would never be that low. The safety is always the longest shot out of the bunch & by a decent margin.
 

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I think he is grouping the FG and the Safety together so it is a 2-way line, EGD. That said, I really dont know.. someone probably has statistics.
 
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Hmm I've never seen the FG & Safety grouped together. Interesting

GG of pool before FSB. We should do it again sometime
 

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Danny,

Maybe I am reading something wrong but that looks like a scalp to me.
 

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Once again, I don't know what this line should be priced, but it seems to me that the 2-way line is a bad deal, because what you really want to bet on is "Will it be a TD or FG".

Don't tell me you are honestly worried about a safety coming up. So by betting into the 2-way line, you are basically paying for the odds of the Safety when you don't care about it. Find a 3 way line and bet the FG or TD by themselves, and you should get a better price. If a safety happens, write it off to a fluke and move on.
 

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Yes. Wunderdog. I saw the Td -125 up last night and I thought that seemed very low for any game let alone a game with strong Offenses and not so strong Defenses.

Most all games have the TD as a favorite on that prop, and this game being a 47 1/2 total I felt should have the TD as a bigger chalk. Problem was that I couldnt find a line on that prop at any other book last night to make sure.

I checked this morning and Olympic had the FG or safety at +140 and I still got the TD -125 at Intertops.
 

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FSB,

Yes I am honestly worried about it. There is no way I would play this scalp


First score will be

TD -125
FG +140

I wouldnt do it because if I did I promise you the first score would be a safety.

I got at Intertops

TD -125

at Olympic

FG or Safety +140
 

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The only thing that sucks is Intertops would only let me play it for $550.

I got $550 to win $440

and then I have FG or safety

$410 to win 574

So I only win $30 or $24 anyway.
 

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Danny.. well seeing as you can get a 15-cent scalp by all means have at that line.

I wasn't talking about scalping. I was saying the average bettor wanting to gamble on one side of the prop should take:

FG +150

instead of FG+Safety +140

as an example.

As in my opinion in the long run those 10 cents would pay for the occasional crazy-ass safety. Hell 5 cents would probably pay for the occasional safety.

I'd Imagine the odds of a safety hitting on any given first score of the game are beyond 20-1... aren't they?
 

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Yes thats true. The FG +150 would be better value than FG and safety +140. I just hate to put myself in position to lose because of Murphy's law. How true it is.
 

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yeah well in your situation I would do exactly what you are doing, Danny.. lock in the cash. No sense to leave a backdoor in a perfectly good scalp.
 

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Holy Sh*t. First score of tonights game is Safety. That was something like +9000.
 

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