What percentage of gamblers do you think bet the same amount every game?

[valdosta]

I imagine it's pretty low. Around 20% or do you think even less than that (just guessing).

 

[THE SHRINK]

Less...

Much less...

 

[t3a]

I think only a person who makes one bet ever.

Most people I know who start betting , immediatley double their bet size right after their first loss, trying to get it back

 

[valdosta]

....

damn, 2 out of 10 seems pretty low to me I'll admit that I don't but you also can't argue with success (I am in my 4th winning year out of 4 so far). I think some plays are better perceived value which is why everyone ends up not being able to stick to the same amount. That and lack of discipline, which can crush any gambler.

 

[Concorde]

Dont have any idea about the % vald. Chasing is my best enemy. Unfortunatelly i think that it is too for a good number of players.

 

[aceduecetrey]

Less than 1% would be my guess if they bet offshore and less than 10% if they bet w/ a local.

 

[Journeyman]

I would say less than 3%...I pretty much do bet the same but do occasionally up my wagers ....I wish i could do this 100% of the time

 

[valdosta]

damn...

I didn't realize it was so low :lolBIG:

 

[aceduecetrey]

The main exception that I know of is when a old timer is set up wih a local and has just one figure that he bets on every game.

 

[TTinCO]

There are probably enough "system players" around to kick it up over 5% or maybe a bit higher.

 

[WildBill]

I change bets over the course of a year, but stay at the same levels for some time. I think at least 20% fit my pattern of sticking to one size on a given day. If you are asking who stays at one level for a full year, that number would be much lower.

 

[Fezzik]

WB, I'm shocked you bet the same on every bet.

We live in square city. Surely, you see lines that are obscenely good every time you make the rounds?

How can you not bet more on Vermont +11s when the offshore line is 10?

 

[WildBill]

Its because I work and can't run around to get action down...

I bet the same because I am and will always stay a handicapper. I know I give up some edge sticking purely to making picks and backing just those, but its time value of money when you have a job that pays well. If I was a full-timer like you best believe I would be working the circuit and getting those soft numbers that I still spot and play on occasion. Finding middles and outlaw lines is certainly a good angle on the game, but it doesn't come without a time commitment and cost.

 

[Fezzik]

Start backing up the truck in the best situations

And we might lose 3 excellent articles every week.

Seriously, every one of the best betting pros I knows varies his bets considerably, employing at least some correlation to an attempted Kelly bet structure.

Some of the very best handicappers are clueless to this concept, however. Solid betting and solid handicaping often have little correlation!

 

[Horseshoe]

Most all of the originators play varying sizes for a variable of reasons.

 

[tatehill2000]

FEZZIK,,,, I DO Vary my bets,,,, Please take a second to Explain the "Kelly" method??? I have another Mehtod I am working on now to be Combined with my "QUITFACTOR " formula,,,

thanks for your help,,
tater

 

[Fezzik]

Kelly says "bet proportional to your edge"

This will grow your bankroll faster than any other method, and will theoretically make it impossible to go bankrupt.

To summarize

1) Estimate your probablity of winning a certain bet (Caveat, 99.9% of bettors suck at this)

2) Bet size based on your edge in 1.

Example, you have a 53.4% bet at -110. You know you need 52.4% to break even vs. -110 vig, so you have a bet that is 1% above breakeven, meaning you have about a 2% edge. Bet 2% of bankroll when playing full Kelly/

A lot of bettors do idiotic things like saying "I expect to win 58% of my bets regardless of the line available, etc.". Time does not permit me to spend the dozens of pages I could ripping this all to shreds.

 

[Doug]

I gotta agree with Fezz here, I can't precisely mathematically absolutely determine my edge ( on a sports bet) like I could, in theory with a computer analyzing the remaining cards left in a single deck BJ game.

To me Fezz, will bet anything if he has a perceived advantage. 3 points off in hoops qualifies easily, a scalp in anything you can bet on.

The guy is smart enough to nail this stuff easy, for a small edge for himself !

Is he a tout, I'll leave that unanswered !, answer is obvious.

Follow a great tout, you only get the leftovers, maybe enough to win !


This Fezzik guy is smart enough to win and market himself. He'd rape an average dummy on a bad prop, Hell he will hit 55 % , he ain't bad !

 

[ElIguana]

It would stand to reason that only guys who are not capping their own games and are just "following a system" would be the ones who bet the same on every game, primarily because they can't (or don't want to) spend the time needed to discern how much to put on each play.

IMO, the only thing worse than chasing losses is not having the onions to up your wager (within reason) on a game where there is great value. In Blackjack, when you have 11 and the dealer is showing a 6, do you not double down EVERY TIME????!!!!

 

[Rainbow]

All of the successful betters that I know defintely do.
large plus large medium large minus
medium....
small.... been like that for years.