What % of your bankroll would you bet if your analysis came up with this?

[valueman]

I was studying form for the big race on Saturday - Victor Chandler Chase (in the UK) and priced up a horse at 11/4 before knowing the jockey. After finding out who the jockey is (not happy) i have revised my odds to 9/2.

The horse in question is trading at 25/1 and my success rate over a number of years is such that I beleive my odds. What percentage of your bankroll would you bet in this circumstance?

 

[castaway]

why be geedy.........make your normal BIG bet. What's the name of the horse?

 

[acw]

It depends on how sure you are about your 9/2. I have learnt over a no. of years that mixing with the public is kind of essential to get a more accurate advantage. At least you do seem to have one here!

 

[valueman]

I'm on already so no harm in divulging the name - farmer jack. I've been cautious and gone with a 4.3% bankroll bet.

 

[valueman]

No one knows anything about Uk jumps racing here and i wouldn't give this out on a UK forum.

 

[JudgeWapner]

With those odds,i wouldn't feel the need to go above 1% of my bankroll.

 

[acw]

I see you are not the only one that likes the horse, as it has already shortened!

GOOD LUCK!

 

[BoratSagdiyev]

I see some really good value man. I would bet 5% without winking an eyelash.

 

[Woody0]

This is an interesting question valueman and I would like to suggest one approach.

You handicap your horse at 9/2 but let me change it to 5/1 to be a little conservative and for illustrative purposes. Now the horse race can be compared to a dice throw with the chance of your horse winning being the chance of throwing, say, a six.

A prime concern now is the total loss of bankroll before a six is thrown (or a horse of this calibre wins). Now in one trial the chance of a non 6 is 5/6 or 0.833. The chance of a non 6 in two trials is 0.833 X 0.833. The chance of a 6 not being thrown in n trials is 0.833 to the power n.

This equation, 0.833 to the power n, allows us to select the level of risk to total bankroll. If we use the 5% level meaning the chance of a 6 not being thrown (or the horse not winning) being less than 5% then n is 17. This analysis suggests using 1/17 or almost 5.9% of bankroll.

The chance of losing 17 consecutive bets of this quality (0.833 to the power 17) and hence the entire bankroll is 4.5%.

Since your bet is 4.3% of bankroll you could theoretically make 23 bets of this size and your risk of total loss i.e. 23 consecutive losses(0.833 to the power 23) is 1.5%. This is indeed quite conservative and I suspect that you have carried out an analysis similar to that above.

Good luck!

 

[dif]

with that odds -I have to say...not more than 1.0% man.

good luck

 

[valueman]

thanks for that woodyO - i have a staking plan that must have had that type of analysis behind it - felt as if i should be staking more but i won't be complaining if it wins.

 

[acw]

valueman,

Do you have an account with BetDaq too?
Anyhow they are down so often that they make Beverlyhillsbookie look like pussy cats!

 

[valueman]

no - betdaq's software is so bad it's unreal - volumes aren't high enough to ofset the lower commissions compared to betfair - i rather get 8/1 than 7/1 and pay 1% more commission.

betdaq are safe though just have problems.

as for farmer jack - it ran like its odds but on the positive side i had a nice 10/1 winner - artic jack went off at 6/1 so made a reasonably good profit on the day.