What Kind of Liability to the Books have on ATL Future Bets (and could this impact the line)?

[chonce]

FOrgive me if that has already been discussed but, I read somewhere that ATL had the 2nd most amount of Future Bets, including with some long odds at the start of the year.

The line is stuck on 3 with modest movement in the juice, despite NE money coming in. Might the book be hedging against ATL future bets to some extent? How many tickets do they have to payout for ATL 100-1 or even longer odds?

But I don't know what the volume of future bets is compared to straight bets on the SB. But this does make sense if one things this line seems a little too short. Vegas may want Pat's money to hedge against these futures.


Thoughts?

 

[LENBO]

Here is part of a piece from the LVRJ on the subject.


While it would be considered only a minor upset if the surging Falcons beat New England, some bettors made wagers on them at 100-1 odds after they lost their season opener to Tampa Bay.
Westgate sports book manager Jeff Sherman said one bettor has a $1,000 ticket on Atlanta to win the Super Bowl at 100-1 odds and Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito and William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich each took smaller bets at 100-1.
CG Technology sports book director Jason Simbal said he took a $5,000 wager on the Falcons at 40-1 odds but added his book still will make almost $1 million in futures if Atlanta wins.
“We’d actually do better on the Falcons (winning) than the Patriots,” Simbal said. “In fact, before the season started, they were the second-least bet team. Only the Titans had less.”
The other sports book directors agreed.
“They’re not a real public team,” Esposito said. “Even after their hot start, there were still a lot of nonbelievers.”

 

[chonce]

Here is part of a piece from the LVRJ on the subject.


While it would be considered only a minor upset if the surging Falcons beat New England, some bettors made wagers on them at 100-1 odds after they lost their season opener to Tampa Bay.
Westgate sports book manager Jeff Sherman said one bettor has a $1,000 ticket on Atlanta to win the Super Bowl at 100-1 odds and Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito and William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich each took smaller bets at 100-1.
CG Technology sports book director Jason Simbal said he took a $5,000 wager on the Falcons at 40-1 odds but added his book still will make almost $1 million in futures if Atlanta wins.
“We’d actually do better on the Falcons (winning) than the Patriots,” Simbal said. “In fact, before the season started, they were the second-least bet team. Only the Titans had less.”
The other sports book directors agreed.
“They’re not a real public team,” Esposito said. “Even after their hot start, there were still a lot of nonbelievers.”

Thanks! This answers my question. Sounds as if ATL future bets were not as common as it sounds -- people who bet those long odds are not large in numbers (and who knows how many people bet stuff like NE Team Wins OVER (10.5?) or NE to win AFC etc...

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

FOrgive me if that has already been discussed but, I read somewhere that ATL had the 2nd most amount of Future Bets, including with some long odds at the start of the year.

The line is stuck on 3 with modest movement in the juice, despite NE money coming in. Might the book be hedging against ATL future bets to some extent? How many tickets do they have to payout for ATL 100-1 or even longer odds?

But I don't know what the volume of future bets is compared to straight bets on the SB. But this does make sense if one things this line seems a little too short. Vegas may want Pat's money to hedge against these futures.


Thoughts?

I read most Vegas sports books hardly took any early futures bets on Atl, they would have much higher liabilities with NE who have been fav all year....here in Aus I took 50/1 Atl then topped up more when they drifted to 66/1....there's no way the line has anything to do with Atl futures I assure you

 

[bigwang]

I read in paper that the Vegas Dave kid who hit royals and broncos futures last year can cash in a few million with the Falcons winning. Not sure how true it is though.

 

[dotcomceo]

that vegas dave is a fraud he literally bets like 2/3 of teams on futures then when one wins he claims he knew it all along and sells his service to them, he's a complete hack

 

[bigwang]

that vegas dave is a fraud he literally bets like 2/3 of teams on futures then when one wins he claims he knew it all along and sells his service to them, he's a complete hack

Sounds likely but you have to think he is ahead on futures if he cashed 7 figures on royals, broncos and Falcons to win NFC.

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

I read in paper that the Vegas Dave kid who hit royals and broncos futures last year can cash in a few million with the Falcons winning. Not sure how true it is though.

even if true this result would be a drop in the ocean compared to what vegas would have stood NE to lose through futures wagers given they have essentially been fav all season long and a popular team

 

[bigwang]

even if true this result would be a drop in the ocean compared to what vegas would have stood NE to lose through futures wagers given they have essentially been fav all season long and a popular team

Not when the odds on pats are less than 6/1 on majority of tickets compared to 50-75/1 on atl. Far more exposure on atl.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Here is part of a piece from the LVRJ on the subject.


While it would be considered only a minor upset if the surging Falcons beat New England, some bettors made wagers on them at 100-1 odds after they lost their season opener to Tampa Bay.
Westgate sports book manager Jeff Sherman said one bettor has a $1,000 ticket on Atlanta to win the Super Bowl at 100-1 odds and Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito and William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich each took smaller bets at 100-1.
CG Technology sports book director Jason Simbal said he took a $5,000 wager on the Falcons at 40-1 odds but added his book still will make almost $1 million in futures if Atlanta wins.
“We’d actually do better on the Falcons (winning) than the Patriots,” Simbal said. “In fact, before the season started, they were the second-least bet team. Only the Titans had less.”
The other sports book directors agreed.
“They’re not a real public team,” Esposito said. “Even after their hot start, there were still a lot of nonbelievers.”

OK, so that is the story. 2nd least most bet on future.

A few idiots on Boston radio said they heard/read that it was 2nd most bet on future and that was why the line wasn't higher because the books need NE action.

I had to explain to a few of my friends that ATL really has no fan base and there is no way in hell they were the 2nd most bet on future. Turns out they were 2nd least.

 

[chonce]

Not when the odds on pats are less than 6/1 on majority of tickets compared to 50-75/1 on atl. Far more exposure on atl.

Right,especially with public betters who just take a lottery ticket on long odds and hope for the best ,,,less fun for lay 150 to win 100 3 months down the road on NE....but laying 100 to win a bazillion (or whatever ATL was) ...different story.

But the above poster found an article saying the liability isn't so bad.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Futures tickets don't matter compared to the superbowl. It dwarfs them.

Maybe if a team like the Cowboys or Eagles was 60-1 at the beginning of the year then it would matter but there just aren't enough Falcons tickets out there.

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

Not when the odds on pats are less than 6/1 on majority of tickets compared to 50-75/1 on atl. Far more exposure on atl.

You have no clue how these books work....you know why teams drift from 50/1 to 100/1??? Because they can't write a ticket on them!! Anyway what someone just said is true futures are always a lot less $ value wise than the action on the final game.

 

[azbob]

If you bookmark the LV Review Journal there is a betting tab...about 2-3 times per week they print articles, (for example the one quoted above) with local LV insights on issue like this. The former columnist there, Matt Youman who is very good, recently left the paper to join Musberger's new network.

 

[bigwang]

You have no clue how these books work....you know why teams drift from 50/1 to 100/1??? Because they can't write a ticket on them!! Anyway what someone just said is true futures are always a lot less $ value wise than the action on the final game.

so based on your logic, if the number on atl starts at 100/1 and drops down to 25/1 before week 8 it is because people aren't betting them? not sure if you understand simple economics.

agree that futures in general are not a big deal to books but if a few shops do have 7 figure liability with a Falcons win, they will sweat game. nowhere near enough pats future money to offset that and considering the average win for entire state of nv books is around 7 mil...1-2 mil paid out on a future to one guy is a big deal.

 

[bigwang]

I wonder if they record bet outcomes for the 30 teams who don't make SB when they are eliminated or after SB is over.

 

[LENBO]

I wonder if they record bet outcomes for the 30 teams who don't make SB when they are eliminated or after SB is over.

Before and they are very happy not to see the Packers .

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

so based on your logic, if the number on atl starts at 100/1 and drops down to 25/1 before week 8 it is because people aren't betting them? not sure if you understand simple economics.



what you said makes no sense and is the opposite of what i said, a movement of 50/1 out to 100/1 before the season is due to ONE reason--lack of bets at the 50's....once the season starts books will adjust prices even before money rolls in, for example you're not going to offer 66/1 if a team is say 4w 1L, when futures prices drop after a weekend's games it has nothing to do with $ they've just taken on that team its about pricing them correctly in your book based on how you assess their chances

 

[mickj]

Not when the odds on pats are less than 6/1 on majority of tickets compared to 50-75/1 on atl. Far more exposure on atl.

read the article:

Westgate sports book manager Jeff Sherman said one bettor has a $1,000 ticket on Atlanta to win the Super Bowl at 100-1 odds and Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito and William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich each took smaller bets at 100-1.
CG Technology sports book director Jason Simbal said he took a $5,000 wager on the Falcons at 40-1 odds but added his book still will make almost $1 million in futures if Atlanta wins.
“We’d actually do better on the Falcons (winning) than the Patriots,” Simbal said. “In fact, before the season started, they were the second-least bet team. Only the Titans had less.”
The other sports book directors agreed.
“They’re not a real public team,” Esposito said. “Even after their hot start, there were still a lot of nonbelievers.”
While it would be considered only a minor upset if the surging Falcons beat New England, some bettors made wagers on them at 100-1 odds after they lost their season opener to Tampa Bay.
Westgate sports book manager Jeff Sherman said one bettor has a $1,000 ticket on Atlanta to win the Super Bowl at 100-1 odds and Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito and William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich each took smaller bets at 100-1.
CG Technology sports book director Jason Simbal said he took a $5,000 wager on the Falcons at 40-1 odds but added his book still will make almost $1 million in futures if Atlanta wins.
“We’d actually do better on the Falcons (winning) than the Patriots,” Simbal said. “In fact, before the season started, they were the second-least bet team. Only the Titans had less.”
The other sports book directors agreed.
“They’re not a real public team,” Esposito said. “Even after their hot start, there were still a lot of nonbelievers.”

 

[chonce]

OK, so that is the story. 2nd least most bet on future.

A few idiots on Boston radio said they heard/read that it was 2nd most bet on future and that was why the line wasn't higher because the books need NE action.

I had to explain to a few of my friends that ATL really has no fan base and there is no way in hell they were the 2nd most bet on future. Turns out they were 2nd least.

Yes, those idiot are the insufferable Mike Felger and Tony Mazz, drive-time hosts who troll our entire region.