What key things do you look for when looking for value in a hockey wager?

[ATX]

I've never wagered on a hockey game in my life.

In baseball I pay a lot of attention to last 3 WHIP. In hockey I would imagine goal tending is a big stat. What statistics are most relevant for wagering on a side or total?

Are home dogs good or are road dogs better for value?

And is it better to use ML's or pucklines or a mixture of each?

Any rule of thumb as far as what type of ML to stay under? For example I rarely lay -140 in baseball b/c most teams dont win 60% of their games. Would appreciate any tips on totals as well.

Of course, I'm not going to wager much to start, so no need to warn me. I'm thinking about throwing down maybe .1% of BR and maybe some .2% LOCK games, lol.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Some key things I look at:

Shots on goal

Penalties

Power Play Production

Penalty Killing

The biggest thing I look at is scheduling & motivation as it is just a fact teams will be up for certain games & dull for others.

 

[jam]

Hey ATX,

EveryGamblersDream is bang-on about the importance of a team's motivation when handicapping.

I look for good teams that have played way below expectations for a couple of games (thus the coach is all over them... not to mention their fans and local media), or a team that has played very well and dominated in scoring chances (not shots on goal - ignore this, half the off-ice officials in the States are clueless) and ran into hot goaltenders or just bad luck.

I've only found three games to play so far this year. First was Edmonton over Buffalo (ML) last Thursday night. The Oilers had just been shutout the previous two games on the road. They were obviously hungry and steamrolled at home.

The second was the Leafs at Montreal on Saturday night. Toronto had yet to win, there was the revenge factor after the game the previous Saturday, and the Leafs are simply a much better team than Montreal.

I also LOVED Dallas over Washington on Friday, but unlike the other games, I didn't bet it because I found the line too scary. If you saw Dallas lose to Boston 2 nights earlier, you saw that they were ALL over them, just couldn't bury. Whereas the Caps looked absolutely horrible against the Leafs and Habs. Bruce Cassidy looks like a deer-in-the-headlights behind the bench. I wouldn't consider them the kind of team to be on the verge of a breakthrough effort like the examples above.

The best advice I can give is to watch as much hockey as possible. I don't bet on games involving Tampa or Columbus or Nashville because I never see them play. Nor do the hockey writers. They see the same highlights we do for the most part. that's why they picked Paul Coffey for the Norris back in the lockout season because he had the most points when he was the third best overall defenceman on his team (Lidstrom, Konstantinov). Fools.

The next game in my sights right now is next Sunday, Phoenix at Vancouver... the Coyotes third game in 4 nights (Canucks have 3 nights off before that). Phoenix actually has the same situation hosting Toronto on Thursday night. Hmmmm.

[This message was edited by jam on October 20, 2003 at 08:02 AM.]

 

[crazyivan24]

http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=428090432&m=59010836

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Excellent points EGD and jam. These situations don't show up in the stats sheets but oftentimes play an important part in the outcome.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

I'd like to further comment on the motivation/scheduling angle. This angle has already worked for me in a big way this early season.

One such game that highlighted my best day of the season so far is when Dallas went to Buffalo to play a 4PM game on Thanksgiving Day(Canada).

I thought the Stars wouldn't be too thrilled with having to come play a 4PM game on the east coast to start the week to begin with.

The main thing that drew me to the Sabres is the fact they started off 0-2 & held a closed door meeting after the second game. They were embarassed & some sounded desperate. I thought their motivation coupled with what I thought would be a lack of motivation from the Stars led me to step out on them.

One suggestion which I'm sure you thought of is to read local papers. The offical team websites can be good but they don't always have the articles from the local beat reporters & I like to fish for those.

 

[ATX]

thanks for the responses

my main problem is that here in Austin, Texas we get zero on motivation or hockey news for the most part.

I think my best shot is to read the books themselves and look at pure numbers.

One of my strengths MAY be that I am completely unbiased (GO STARS!! lol) as far as certain teams are unbeatable or <locks> in some games.

Any input as far as ML or totals moves or public fading? Which books are sharper with hockey or totals and any big public teams this year?

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

The biggest public team imo will be my very own Colorado Avalanche.

When you nightly put out Forsberg, Tanguay, & Hejduk on your top line & Sakic, Karia, & Selanne on your 2nd line, you will be backed heavily. This team has the best top 2 lines in hockey & are pretty much an all star team in of itself with 5 of these 6 definite HOF's

Another public team imo will be my other team which is my hometown team, the NY Rangers. They have missed the playoffs 6 straight seasons but every year it is supposed to be the year they come back & become a legitimate cup contender again so they will get some action as well.

 

[LogansRun]

Some good points brought up already but also look at the starting goalies. Whenever one of the top teams starts a backup, that team will still be priced as if the number 1 starter is playing. The backup on virtually every team is usually a 0.500 goalie so taking the dog +0.5 or ML can present some good opportunities. This is especially true when the better team is playing back to back or 3 games in 4 nights.

 

[iceman2002]

Bettiing on home dogs is profitable in hockey. Also look for a team that played the night before and bet against them.

 

[ATX]

thanks again, guys.

I posted a thread last year right before the season started about a pretty profitable angle I came across.

I believe it was "bet against a team playing it's 4th game in 5 nights", maybe? cant remember. Or maybe it had to be road games?

How much more profitable is it to play ML's on dogs as opposed to the +.5 or +1.5?