What is Wrong with this Parlay Betting Method.

[wilheim]

The goal is to win just one parlay in an eight bet series.Here is the series breakdown.


5-10-15-25-40-55-80-100
In this series by winning any one parlay will create a profit.
Here is how much of a profit will be attained at each stage of the series.
BET Amount wagered Net Profit
#1 $5 + $13
# 2 $10 + $21
# 3 $15 + $25
# 4 $25 + $36
# 5 $40 + $50
# 6 $55 + $50
# 7 $80 + $61
# 8 $100 + $34



Rules to follow:
1) Starting with the first number in the series, make a 2 team parlay.

2) If you lose the first parlay, move up to the next number in the series, and make another 2 team parlay. Continue up the series until you win one 2 team parlay.

3) If you win your first parlay, add the profit to your bankroll and start another series.

4) Once you hit a parlay anywhere in the series. Add the profit to your bankroll and start another series.
You only have to hit one parlay in a series to show a profit.
Here is an example of hitting just 3 parlays out of 11 bets made.
Here is the series on how the wins and losses occurred.

L-L-L-L-W-L-L-L-W-L-W
BET Amount bet Result W/L Net Profit

# 1 5 lose -5 -5
# 2 10 lose -10 -15
# 3 15 lose -15 -30
# 4 25 lose -25 -55
#5 40 win +105 +50

Your series goal has been attained. Add $50 to your bankroll.

# 6 5 lose -5 -5
# 7 10 lose -10 -15
# 8 15 lose -15 -30
# 9 25 win +66 +36
Your series goal has been attained. Add $36 to your bankroll.
#10 5 lose -5 -5
#11 10 win +26 +21
Your series goal has been attained. Add $21 to your bankroll.
Results Betting this method - + $107
By hitting only 3 out of 11 parlays all the money lost on the losing parlays has been returned, plus a profit of $107 has been won.
I found this system at a gambling portal, I am not in any way responsible for its creation. Wil.













This message was edited by wilheim on March 09, 2004 at 07:22 PM.]

[This message was edited by wilheim on March 09, 2004 at 07:43 PM.]

[This message was edited by wilheim on March 09, 2004 at 08:40 PM.]

[This message was edited by wilheim on March 09, 2004 at 08:43 PM.]

[This message was edited by wilheim on March 09, 2004 at 08:45 PM.]

 

[Marco]

Currently mulling over this.....

Key is can you hit a two-teamer before you top out.....just like playing "double or nothing"....eventually you will win one but what are the stakes reaching up into?

I would try this out on paper for awhile just to see how things would have worked out had you put some real green into it....

good luck whatever you choose....

 

[Jazz]

odds to lose one parlay: 75% (LL ... LW ... WL ... 3 out of 4 occurrences, excluding ties)

odds to lose 8 parlays consecutively: .75 **8 = approx. 10%

average profit when one in a series of 8 hits: $36.25

Assume you play 100 series of parlays (not parlays themselves!) - you can expect to:

lose 10 parlay series (i.e., ten times you lost 8 parlays in a row) - total loss = $330 * 10 = -$3,330

win 90 parlay series at average $36.25 profit = +3,262.5


Summary: over 100 series, your net loss would be $67.50 ... not bad, but not what you're looking for. You can adjust the calculations to account for ties, it's just that I don't have the time - you could also fiddle with the average profit, which I arrived at by simply adding up all the possible profits and dividing by 8. Finally, you can also factor in an individual bet win expectation higher than the 50% I assumed in this example.

 

[wilheim]

Thanks Jazz, how are you by the way? Hope all is well. I would imagine with reduced juice, (if it is available when betting parlays), might make the method a slight earn.


wil.

 

[Jazz]

np, Wil - doing fine, just busy with non-gambling stuff these days - with reduced juice, yes, but the question is how much you can expect to cart away for all that effort, and whether it's enough for you to try it for.

 

[RobFunk]

like looking at a 2 yr old crayon writing and trying to make sense of it.

 

[wilheim]

True might be a lot of work for very little ROI. Just assuming a player could win 50% of his plays (no mean feat), laying -105, what would the ROI be for 100 series? Math wizzes help out please.


wil.

 

[Journeyman]

Have you ever tried it Wil?

 

[wilheim]

Rob I condensed it to make it easier to read.


Jman, not for real money, I have started to do a simulated series. It is to early to post any meaningful data.

wil.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Jazz,

Good analysis, but I have to point out an error in your estimation of average win on the parlays...I would have thought you'd catch it yourself since each parlay has an expected loss of 10% of the stake so any combination must have an expected loss of 10% of the total stake.

In the case of a win the smaller values are more likely to occur than the larger ones, so the real average win (in the 90% of the cases when the series wins) is:

.25*13 + .75*.25*21 + .75*.75*.25*25 + ... + (.75)^7*.25*34 = 25.27

Substituting this new figure into your equations gives

Lose 10 parlays for $330 = 330 * 10 = 3,300
Win 90 parlays for $25.27 = 25.27 * 90 = 2,274

for a net loss of $1,026 in 100 series or just over $10 per series.

Doesn't look too good from here!!!!!

 

[trytrytry]

your average expected loss is the same average expected loss that the 2 team parlay is offering. Put it this way, the 13-5 2 team parlay you are playing at any given time does not know that this is is some series and could care a less.


Its a new independant event and a negative expectation. Now that is if the game you are playing is 50-50. If you think your handicapping can get you 55% winners than this will work. (along with many other ways to wager that do not allow you to risk too much of your bankroll and risk going broke when you have the best of it)

 

[Jazz]

Darryl: thanks for the info, yes, I did think of that but decided to blow it off in favor of a flat average because I didn't have the time to spend to grind the numbers. Thanks

 

[drunkguy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Just assuming a player could win 50% of his plays (no mean feat), laying -105, what would the ROI be for 100 series? Math wizzes help out please.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Wil - let me ask you this question: will hitting 50% at -105 on straight bets win you money?

A parlay does not increase your chances of winning, it just starts multiplying things together so you get to your endpoint faster.

A 55% bettor will win more money faster betting parlays as compared to straight bets.

A 45% capper will lose more money faster betting parlays.

A parlay cannot turn a -EV situation into a +EV situation (unless correlated - topic for another discussion)

This is a spin on the old Martingale system everyone has seen for roulette. Problem is, the house has an advantage on every bet made (the vig), so this can never work to your advantage(unless of course your capping is good enough to bring you into +EV).

Figured you to know all this wil.

 

[wilheim]

Drunk always appreciate your input. To be honest I am not a big figure the percentage to the 4th decimal point man. Just wanted to get some feed back. You never know, sometime these kind of threads take on a life of their own. Other times they die a rapid death on page 2.

wil.

 

[drunkguy]

 

[vinividivinci]

Wil

After you get this all figured out just get in touch and we will set up your account. Parlay and teaser system players are always welcome.

Would you rather have a country ham or a quart of Jack Daniels for your annual holiday gift?

Please advise.


VVV

p.s. I'm sure not necessary but LOL!!

 

[wilheim]

Vin, how r ya? I almost forgot you. I was posting up contests. Lets see, the JD is no good, on the wagon for almost 15 years. A country ham will have to do. I will give you my first parlay for tommorow nights NBA games. Hmmmm. I got it.

Going a against the grain with two visiting favs.

Cavs -1 -110
Twolves -3 -110 5$ to win 13$.


wil.

 

[TheGeneral+]

I like my chances fading the over with the system after a couple/three straight overs on the weekly 7 pm ESPN game.

Have fun Men.

 

[Jazz]

listen to Vin, Wil, he ain't saying this because they go broke on these!

"Parlay and teaser system players are always welcome."

Take the ham but dump the system

 

[vinividivinci]

Wil

Sorry my man, your parlay action is just a little too sharp for my office to handle!!

Best of luck with the games, my friend!!


VVV

[This message was edited by vinividivinci on March 10, 2004 at 02:18 PM.]