Likewise, brother. Some of the beers will be on me. Looking forward to the bash, as last year was such a blast. How are your legendary NBA plays coming along this year? I may be getting out of Vegas real soon. I will make an official announcement if and when that happens.tatehill2000 said:
ILLINI ,,
there is no such thing as failure,,,,, only PROGRESSION,,,, this is a GREAT thread for what IM about to say,,,
you Moved to VEGAS to TAKE ASHOT at doing it full time,,,, (this may not be the best BETTING PATTERN FOR YOU)
(refer to earlier posts)
I know your view from our meeting,,, so I know your Integrity for CAPPING and what your trying to acomplish,,,, doing it the way you are is tough,,,,,(I dont know all your personal issues) just the ones mentioned,,,
keep the faith,,, stay conservative,,,,,, and find your GROOVE,,,
the NBA plays are actually doing well,,, lol,,, how crazy huh??? I will tell you in person exaclty what the %s are,,,,,
all the best bro,,,Im hittin the hay,,,
tater
there is no such thing as failure,,,,, only PROGRESSION,,,, this is a GREAT thread for what IM about to say,,,
you Moved to VEGAS to TAKE ASHOT at doing it full time,,,, (this may not be the best BETTING PATTERN FOR YOU)
(refer to earlier posts)
I know your view from our meeting,,, so I know your Integrity for CAPPING and what your trying to acomplish,,,, doing it the way you are is tough,,,,,(I dont know all your personal issues) just the ones mentioned,,,
keep the faith,,, stay conservative,,,,,, and find your GROOVE,,,
the NBA plays are actually doing well,,, lol,,, how crazy huh??? I will tell you in person exaclty what the %s are,,,,,
all the best bro,,,Im hittin the hay,,,
tater
tatehill2000 said:
that approach wouldn't work for me...say i had 365 plays a year, and i only bet my absolute strongest play a day...sure i could easily raise my ROI, maybe even up to .08 or .09 cents on the dollar, but there wouldn't be enough plays each year to guarantee (or virtually guarantee) my profit!
sure, if one year went exactly as planned and i hit dead-on my new, let's say, .09 cents ROI, then i would certainly make enough to live from...
but the variance on 365 plays is soooooo much wider than on the larger pool of 1,500 plays, even with the given that the win expectation will be larger on the 365 plays (because you're being more selective)
over 365 plays (1 per day for one year) ANYTHING can happen. what if i have a bad 6 month stretch (hey, it's only 180 plays, even the best capper can lose a bundle over a small 180 play stretch)??? i could make no profit, or virtually no profit, over an ENTIRE YEAR of betting.
for my needs, that's just not acceptable. i need a larger pool of bets to guarantee, or nearly guarantee my expected ROI (win expectation)
with 1,500 plays, you're going to come pretty damn close to hitting whre you expect to hit (your ROI)...with 365 anything can happen over a calendar year.
sure, if you do it 10 years in a row, 365 plays each year, your yearly profit averaged out will be dead-on (that's 3,650 plays)...but for someone who draws a salary from gambling winnings, that's not acceptable. a YEARLY profit MUST be assured, or virtually assured.
that's why the "grind" method is ideal (more bets, smaller amounts risked) than the "big game hunter" (less bets, larger amounts).
well, for me at least. i hope this clarifies better why i prefer to play more plays at a lower bet size and win expectation (ROI).
thanks so much for the nice words...i'll probably post some baseball plays once the season starts. but i have to be honest, this is my first MLB season here at RX.com and if choptalk and bucsfan are as good as everyone says they are...
then they're probably much better MLB cappers than me. and i'll end up using THEIR plays to check my own and maybe help me find a few winners or talk me out of a few losers (if i'm on the other side).
i can't wait for opening day!
then they're probably much better MLB cappers than me. and i'll end up using THEIR plays to check my own and maybe help me find a few winners or talk me out of a few losers (if i'm on the other side).
i can't wait for opening day!
hey man,,,,,, your honesty is more than most give,,,,,
so thanks for putting it out htere,,,, Buc is incredible,,,, JOURNEY is INSANE,,,,,
if you check your plays through them Im sure you lll make $$$$
this site is about honesty (most dont have) and exchange of theories,,,
go get em bro,,, Iwill check yoru threads,,,,,,,,
tater
so thanks for putting it out htere,,,, Buc is incredible,,,, JOURNEY is INSANE,,,,,
if you check your plays through them Im sure you lll make $$$$
this site is about honesty (most dont have) and exchange of theories,,,
go get em bro,,, Iwill check yoru threads,,,,,,,,
tater
Agree Christian, the grind method offers the most potential. I spray around the board per day with 4 or 5 full unit plays, 4 or 5 1/2 unit plays, and maybe 4 or 5 1/4ish unit plays. I play whatever I feel has value and bet more based on how much value I think there is. Used to play the "Best picks" approach and eventually my greed took me over as I hated looking at the scores and seeing those opinions that were right that I should've at least had a little bit on. As my capping got better though I've found this is definately the way to go to maximize the cash if I'm to make a consistent income from this.
tatehill2000 said:
I'm not sure what you mean and don't like the sound of it, but maybe I'm misundertanding you.
Christian, I think you'd be surprised at the variance over 1500 games. Say you know you'll hit 54.5% longterm, over the next 1500 all you know that it is unlikely that you won't profit, and you'll probally be within a couple of %.
Assuming you have made 4500 plays at 4% return, 2% most probally fine, but if you are serious then it isn't too conservative to be betting 1%
quantumleap said:Christian said:Christian:
I hope I don't sound argumentative here but I do believe there are some people who can vary their bets between 2-5% without going bankrupt, CoachLT being one of them.
Quantum, thanks for the encouragement. Every one has their own strengths and quirks. Nimue was dead on about some limit players getting booted. I am amazed that so many play ALL the sports. As a personal quirk, I HATE 95% of of ALL pro sports. The players don't care and the owners are in it to make money. Being a winner is secondary. I will NEVER play more than 1% of BR on NFL football. Now the CFL is a whole different animal. I follow a couple of CFL guys, Sharky 99 is a great one, and will go as high as 2%. CFL limits are a lot lower.By hating the pro sports I would be setting myself up for failure before making the first play. By restricting myself to mainly CFB, I do limit the number of yearly plays. I am too old to change my method and that is my story and I am sticking to it!:lolBIG: LT
I believe sports betting is about being selective and aggressive. If you have confidence in your picks you should wager aggressively and take advantage of the fact that you can be selective. Ideally, instead of betting 1-2% of your bankroll on a variety of plays you should narrow down your plays and bet aggressively, about 4-5% of your br, on the ones you feel are the strongest. If you have the discipline to be very selective i believe betting 5% of your bankroll is the best way to put the books at a disadvantage. The last thing the books want to see are players being very selective and betting more when the player feels they have an edge. THis is exactly why it should be done.
Of course this is much easier to say than to do. If you are looking to make money long term i think this is the best way to approach it.
Of course this is much easier to say than to do. If you are looking to make money long term i think this is the best way to approach it.
Most people's bankrolls are a smaller than they think. Once a bettor loses half his bankroll or thereabouts they often won't be able to continue betting the same amounts. So if you're betting 2% of what you think is your bankroll it's almost like you're really betting 4% (of what you're actually willing to lose before quitting).
