ucle steve here's a simple formula from bob mccune's book which shows you how to rate the teams.. there are two different methods bob talks about in his book, this is the much simpler method.
"an effective formula we use is to first take the batting average and add it to the on-base percentage and divide by 2. This becomes FACTOR A. FACTOR B is determined by taking the total bases, times runs scored, divided by games played. FACTOR A + Factor B becomes FACTOR C. The final power index number is achieved by dividing factor C by runs allowed."
All of the information that you will need to use can be found on USATODAY's website, just go to the baseball stats section and click on the archives and you can get many of the past season's stats.. i think it's under "team batting/pitching statistics"
Now you have an overall power number but then you need to figure out an estimated runs allowed by both teams. I like to use XERA or FIP ERA as it has more predictive power than regular ERA.. I estimate how many innings the starter will pitch.. if i say he pitches 6 innings i take 6/9 * XERA.. then i find the bullpen's home or road ERA and multiply that by (3/9).. Now you must also account for unearned runs. On the usatoday site just take runs - earned runs, and divide that number by the amound of games played.
If you are betting on totals you need to make an adjustment for the effects of the ballpark.. that equation i can find for you, it is in michael murray's book, "betting baseball".
So if i figure out that the yankees are going to give up 4.6 runs i take their team index number (the first equation) and divide that number by 4.6 and lets say i end up with a number of 38.9 (this is the number i have for today's game with pettite pitching). And for the devil rays i have a number of 17.57.. I take 38.9/17.57 and that gives me 2.21.. then i had a home field advantage of 11 cents (home field is generally 18 cents but the pitching numbers i use take home and road into account) so now for this actual game i have a line of Yankees -232, devil rays +232.
Now for bet sizing purposes i use a conservative kelly criterion fraction.. i use 1/6 kelly because i don't plan on going broke.. so let's assume my bankroll is 1000 dollars.. the proper kelly bet at 1/6 kelly with my line of +232 and the line i'm betting into at let's say +260 would be $5.28.. using kelly your bets on large underdogs are going to be much smaller than bets on favorites...it is mathematically sound however.
You need to be able to make subjective adjustments to your line as well.. how does one team fare against left handed pitchers? how good is team A on the road? in day games? etc etc.. so you would make your adjustments to the line by either adding cents for the favorite or taking away cents.
I hope this helps you
hopefully you have a program like excel to do most of the work for you
WOW. Thanks a bunch. this will give me something to do, something new to LEARN.
I can't thank you enough.
I love new stuff, and it's gonna be fun trying this out. I hope you stay in touch and let me know how it is working for you. Once I get familiar with it, I'll let you know. I'll keep some good records, as well.
Forgive the slight rant-post. Gets frustrating sometimes when you put hard work into something, and it gets run over by a drunk cab driver. Or, a bulldozer. OR, worse yet = a bullpen guy!
LOL. You know what I mean.
I'm going to work on this starting tomorrow. Is it OK to bug you if I have any more questions ???? Thanks in advance.
Hey, and good luck to you all season long.
Uncle Steve in Texas = (feeling weekend-ish)
:toast:
ope: 
