Math has no place in gambling actually. There is no way to determine which team is a better value using math, unless it is in a series play r a future bet where odds can be compared and correlated. I will have mor eon that in a post I made the other day.
But people that look at anumber and think they have a 60% edge or even a 65% or 55% or whatever are kidding themselves. It isn't like there re a finite set of possibilities (like in cards or dice) there are infinite factors, and each subsequent result actually "taints" the overall pool.
For example say there have been 1487 games that something has occured in the history of the NFL. 867 of them have turned out a certain way and 627 have turnd out another. Some people would say that is an edge of 58% one way, and bet accordingly. Now let's assume that there are 16 examples of it in one year, say those games fall at 1-15 against the 'expected edge'. Doubtful but possible. That might either meanthe edge was based on something totally irellevant or it might mean that it is a case by case thing. Either way the next year when people look at that "edge play" they are still going to see a 57.75% 'edge', still supposedly worth betting, but they might be less inclined to utilize it if it is on a neagtive run, or has apattern that might suggest the resukts are an anomoly.
Anything and everything can happen in footbal, there are no edges, you bet and hope your teams hangs on or gets a backdoor cover, it all depends on how the game unfolds.
To me, being on the right side is when a game is totally domiated by another side, and a kick off return and a punt return both or several turnovers, or anthing that isn't very likely happens. One fluke to me shouldn't be considered having the right side and losing. I think it takes several things to go wrong.
But people that look at anumber and think they have a 60% edge or even a 65% or 55% or whatever are kidding themselves. It isn't like there re a finite set of possibilities (like in cards or dice) there are infinite factors, and each subsequent result actually "taints" the overall pool.
For example say there have been 1487 games that something has occured in the history of the NFL. 867 of them have turned out a certain way and 627 have turnd out another. Some people would say that is an edge of 58% one way, and bet accordingly. Now let's assume that there are 16 examples of it in one year, say those games fall at 1-15 against the 'expected edge'. Doubtful but possible. That might either meanthe edge was based on something totally irellevant or it might mean that it is a case by case thing. Either way the next year when people look at that "edge play" they are still going to see a 57.75% 'edge', still supposedly worth betting, but they might be less inclined to utilize it if it is on a neagtive run, or has apattern that might suggest the resukts are an anomoly.
Anything and everything can happen in footbal, there are no edges, you bet and hope your teams hangs on or gets a backdoor cover, it all depends on how the game unfolds.
To me, being on the right side is when a game is totally domiated by another side, and a kick off return and a punt return both or several turnovers, or anthing that isn't very likely happens. One fluke to me shouldn't be considered having the right side and losing. I think it takes several things to go wrong.
Dante, i look at it like this...if it is a bad beat i say i was on the "right" side
eventhough i lost! If i were on baltimore monday night or the yankees last night
i just missed the game! If i had the under 34 which is tought to bet anyway and
the score was 0-0 at half time and 7-3 after three qtr's and it went over the
total in the fourth qtr like 4 bizarre touchdowns, i would then say i lost but i was
on the right side! ga
eventhough i lost! If i were on baltimore monday night or the yankees last night
i just missed the game! If i had the under 34 which is tought to bet anyway and
the score was 0-0 at half time and 7-3 after three qtr's and it went over the
total in the fourth qtr like 4 bizarre touchdowns, i would then say i lost but i was
on the right side! ga
I think you can equate it to %s. It's like in baseball and your a head by a run in the ninth inning your opponent has a man on base and has a batter that hits 350 against righties and 220 against lefties. You put your lefthanded pitcher in and the guy hits a 2 run dinger to beat you. DId you make the right move? % say yes, but you still lost.
:scared: :neenee:
:umn: :nuts: 
You could be the best capper in the world... But if you pay too much Vig... Or fail to get the best number...ie bet +9.5 when +10's are out there... you will lose... Math is very important
I am sure Wantitall didnt mean it exactly as it came accross....
Shrink "no disrespect" & "DUMBEST" do not go together in the same sentence....
I think "Want" means there is no way to measure your edge accurately (if you have an edge). For me gambling on sports is all about math. If the New York Yankees were playing my local highschool girls softball team and the NYY were only a -150 favorite, you can't tell me that I wouldn't have a huge mathmatical edge if I took the bronx bomers. I have no way of determing what that edge is exactly and no one could for that matter (not even you Shrink).
Wild example but I'm using it to make my point so save your insults
Hitman
Wild example but I'm using it to make my point so save your insults
Hitman
Hitman, exactly. People think a 15 cent move awya from them gives them an edge, well it does if they had the original number because then they couold bet both sides and not lose.
But the only way to know if you have any kind of edge at all is to have a reference point, period. And even then, if you are betting one way, then you still have a watered down edge. I bet anyone would have said that Balt PLUS 2.5 was a great EDGE, well guess what, it lost. Actually in reality Balt PLUS 7 wasn't even that good, but that kind of cover may come under the ehading of having the righ tside and losing, as Balt had a gimmick play for a long TD, then an over turned call (correctly so BTW) and the very next play was a punt return for a TD.
But to try and say that you can look at a game and say you have an edge by a certain amount is craziness. People now think that Minn has more value because theline has gone up on them. Maybe so, but if they lose what does the value really do for you? Getting the extra penny or nickle or dime only matters when you WIN, not just because you got it.
But as my WHOLE statement said, math is only relevant when you can use correlatuions to figure out a true perceived value, win or lose. But that also entails having the ability to buy the other side back for a profit as well.
All you jokers that make your own line or own number go back and look at all the games you have done. I would bet my bankroll that you were more or less right btween 48-52% of the time either way, to me that is a losing propsition, and basically a coin flips chance. So where does math really matter in that sense?
But the only way to know if you have any kind of edge at all is to have a reference point, period. And even then, if you are betting one way, then you still have a watered down edge. I bet anyone would have said that Balt PLUS 2.5 was a great EDGE, well guess what, it lost. Actually in reality Balt PLUS 7 wasn't even that good, but that kind of cover may come under the ehading of having the righ tside and losing, as Balt had a gimmick play for a long TD, then an over turned call (correctly so BTW) and the very next play was a punt return for a TD.
But to try and say that you can look at a game and say you have an edge by a certain amount is craziness. People now think that Minn has more value because theline has gone up on them. Maybe so, but if they lose what does the value really do for you? Getting the extra penny or nickle or dime only matters when you WIN, not just because you got it.
But as my WHOLE statement said, math is only relevant when you can use correlatuions to figure out a true perceived value, win or lose. But that also entails having the ability to buy the other side back for a profit as well.
All you jokers that make your own line or own number go back and look at all the games you have done. I would bet my bankroll that you were more or less right btween 48-52% of the time either way, to me that is a losing propsition, and basically a coin flips chance. So where does math really matter in that sense?
"People think a 15 cent move awya from them gives them an edge"
for that one game you are probably right but taken over a season you are dead wrong. bet 200 baseball games in a season you say you will win between 48-52 5%. We will split it down the middle and say you hit 50 % that is 100 games that you won an extra 15 cents, thats 15 units over the season, that is difference between losing $ and winning.
for that one game you are probably right but taken over a season you are dead wrong. bet 200 baseball games in a season you say you will win between 48-52 5%. We will split it down the middle and say you hit 50 % that is 100 games that you won an extra 15 cents, thats 15 units over the season, that is difference between losing $ and winning.
Most people would say that if you bet against a line move you wouldn't hit 50% to begin with, but that is another argument.
But that is the thing, to majke it relevant at all you would have to bet ALL the games. So are you betting those games because of the supposed value gained? Or because they fit the line move theory of gaining extra money when you can?
To me that isn't exploiting an edge, it is betting every single game you think you are getting something for. Kind of like going into 7-11 and buying all the cokes you see that are normally 1.00, for 75 cents because they have value in that time. But go up the street to the supermarket or Wal Mart and they are 35 cents. Is Coke really worth 35 cents is probably the ultimate "value" question. Would you rather pay 35 cents for Coke or 50 cents for Pepsi? That is an argument a guy told me a while ago, and it makes sense if told right. One side is the fave (Pepsi 50 cents), the other side is the dog (Coke 40 cents) Is there really that much difference in tast to pay more?
But then again it isn't all that far fetched, they are letting you bet on just about everythinf else, probably Coke V Pepsi is next.
But the bottomline is, that when you have to bet every single game in order to gain something, that isn't an edge, it is getting the best cut rate prices on every game going.In essense it diminishes the argument of math having a place, in the context most take it to mean. Because if you bet every game, then there is no need to weight a side as better or wose, you simpley bet the best number available at a particular side.
But that is the thing, to majke it relevant at all you would have to bet ALL the games. So are you betting those games because of the supposed value gained? Or because they fit the line move theory of gaining extra money when you can?
To me that isn't exploiting an edge, it is betting every single game you think you are getting something for. Kind of like going into 7-11 and buying all the cokes you see that are normally 1.00, for 75 cents because they have value in that time. But go up the street to the supermarket or Wal Mart and they are 35 cents. Is Coke really worth 35 cents is probably the ultimate "value" question. Would you rather pay 35 cents for Coke or 50 cents for Pepsi? That is an argument a guy told me a while ago, and it makes sense if told right. One side is the fave (Pepsi 50 cents), the other side is the dog (Coke 40 cents) Is there really that much difference in tast to pay more?
But then again it isn't all that far fetched, they are letting you bet on just about everythinf else, probably Coke V Pepsi is next.
But the bottomline is, that when you have to bet every single game in order to gain something, that isn't an edge, it is getting the best cut rate prices on every game going.In essense it diminishes the argument of math having a place, in the context most take it to mean. Because if you bet every game, then there is no need to weight a side as better or wose, you simpley bet the best number available at a particular side.
What is meant when someone says "We lost but we where on the right side"
lamer excuse,
no doubt about it...
lamer excuse,
no doubt about it...
OK, how about math has no place in trying to determine if a side is better than another side or not.
Here is the conundrum that is pefectly set up tonight. NYY were as low as -149 in tonight's games. I have now seen them as high as -240, also saw Minn as high as +210 at a couple shops.
So here it is, which side has the better value at those odds? There will be a winner and there will be a loser, so even if you think one side has value, if they lose, then was it really value?
The only value in taht game was getting on NYY earlier yeserday at -149 if you could get it, or the -151 it was at all day. Then waiting it out and getting the +200 on Minn now. Obviously that is a major guessing game, and one that has taken on a life of its own. But I posted in here a couple days ago that NYY at -151 wouldn't last long, and you might see -170/+163. I had no idea that it would do what it did.
So is that value? Getting the most bang both ways, guaranteeing a win no matter who wins? To me that is the true value. NOT LOSING is always the best scenario to me.
You can figure out odds and correlate, and that is when math matters. Like my post from the other day said, anyone taking NYY at -170 to win the series was making a mistake. That had to do with math, but it had nothing to do with their chances of winning or losing that game or even the series. it had to do with actually figuring out what you should be paying rather than what is offered.
So maybe I wasn't clear. But math has no plce in trying to actually pick one side or the other. If it was as simple as math then everyone with a calculator would be winning.
Here is the conundrum that is pefectly set up tonight. NYY were as low as -149 in tonight's games. I have now seen them as high as -240, also saw Minn as high as +210 at a couple shops.
So here it is, which side has the better value at those odds? There will be a winner and there will be a loser, so even if you think one side has value, if they lose, then was it really value?
The only value in taht game was getting on NYY earlier yeserday at -149 if you could get it, or the -151 it was at all day. Then waiting it out and getting the +200 on Minn now. Obviously that is a major guessing game, and one that has taken on a life of its own. But I posted in here a couple days ago that NYY at -151 wouldn't last long, and you might see -170/+163. I had no idea that it would do what it did.
So is that value? Getting the most bang both ways, guaranteeing a win no matter who wins? To me that is the true value. NOT LOSING is always the best scenario to me.
You can figure out odds and correlate, and that is when math matters. Like my post from the other day said, anyone taking NYY at -170 to win the series was making a mistake. That had to do with math, but it had nothing to do with their chances of winning or losing that game or even the series. it had to do with actually figuring out what you should be paying rather than what is offered.
So maybe I wasn't clear. But math has no plce in trying to actually pick one side or the other. If it was as simple as math then everyone with a calculator would be winning.
