I guess others can explain it better but I'll try. A correlated bet is a bet whose outcome is not independant from the outcome of another bet.
For example if you bet on team A to win the first half and also bet on team A to win the game these bets would be correlated as if you win the first bet, meaning team A leads at half-time, chances are obviously good that team A will take the game as well.
Another example are bets on a heavy favourite to cover a big spread and a bet on the Over of that same game. If the favourite scores enough to cover the spread chances are that the total will go Over.
For example if you bet on team A to win the first half and also bet on team A to win the game these bets would be correlated as if you win the first bet, meaning team A leads at half-time, chances are obviously good that team A will take the game as well.
Another example are bets on a heavy favourite to cover a big spread and a bet on the Over of that same game. If the favourite scores enough to cover the spread chances are that the total will go Over.
easiest way to explain it is when you see a high-powered offense matched up against a stingy defense.
a high scoring game favors the team with the offensive firepower.
a low scoring game favors the team with the strong defense.
thus, if you like the dog, you also would likely lean to the under. if you like the favorite, you would lean toward the over.
correlated plays are more common in basketball when you have dramatic difference in tempo and philosophy (i.e. butler vs. maryland, which i believe ended up as dog/under in the tourney game)
a high scoring game favors the team with the offensive firepower.
a low scoring game favors the team with the strong defense.
thus, if you like the dog, you also would likely lean to the under. if you like the favorite, you would lean toward the over.
correlated plays are more common in basketball when you have dramatic difference in tempo and philosophy (i.e. butler vs. maryland, which i believe ended up as dog/under in the tourney game)
Correlation = a coefficient that ranges from 0 to 1.
1 = totally correlated
0 = no correlation at all
... and anything in between (like 0.35 and 0.68) is the degree of correlation.
Another meaningful number is r^2 (r x r) too.
Matt's example is one where r = 1, like he says ... another would have been taking NYG +2.5 and NYG +121 on the ML last night ... anyone who wins the moneyline bet would also win on the pointspread, so you would want to parlay that if you could ... but you can't.
There are other examples of correlated parlays, and one is in MLB ... where you take the home team -1.5 and the under ... that is because if a home team is winning big, then they probably won't bat in the 9th inning ... and for a 9 inning game with a total of 9, that means 0.5 runs is scored every half inning and you only have 8.5 innings played. BetJM and Pinny used to not allow you to parlay run-lines with totals for that reason (not sure if they still don't) ... and that is why they don't post run-lines in Cubs games until they post the totals ... 1.5 runs is worth a lot more in a game with a total of 7 than it is in a game with a total of 11.5.
There are other correlated parlays in football, like Alabama -34.5 and over 41 ... but while the correlation isn't 0.99 here, it is still very high.
Ganchrow could explain correlated football parlays to you a lot better than I could ... and I hope he does.
1 = totally correlated
0 = no correlation at all
... and anything in between (like 0.35 and 0.68) is the degree of correlation.
Another meaningful number is r^2 (r x r) too.
Matt's example is one where r = 1, like he says ... another would have been taking NYG +2.5 and NYG +121 on the ML last night ... anyone who wins the moneyline bet would also win on the pointspread, so you would want to parlay that if you could ... but you can't.
There are other examples of correlated parlays, and one is in MLB ... where you take the home team -1.5 and the under ... that is because if a home team is winning big, then they probably won't bat in the 9th inning ... and for a 9 inning game with a total of 9, that means 0.5 runs is scored every half inning and you only have 8.5 innings played. BetJM and Pinny used to not allow you to parlay run-lines with totals for that reason (not sure if they still don't) ... and that is why they don't post run-lines in Cubs games until they post the totals ... 1.5 runs is worth a lot more in a game with a total of 7 than it is in a game with a total of 11.5.
There are other correlated parlays in football, like Alabama -34.5 and over 41 ... but while the correlation isn't 0.99 here, it is still very high.
Ganchrow could explain correlated football parlays to you a lot better than I could ... and I hope he does.
lets say you could wager in a parlay on the folowing 2 teamer
1.. Jman leaves as a mod in next month YES +1200
2. ICEMAN named a mod in next month Yes +500
That is a correlated parlay parlay parlay....
the outcome of the first is correlated with the chances of the second thus you get a better price with the parlay than "true odds"
1.. Jman leaves as a mod in next month YES +1200
2. ICEMAN named a mod in next month Yes +500
That is a correlated parlay parlay parlay....
the outcome of the first is correlated with the chances of the second thus you get a better price with the parlay than "true odds"
