What is a better # to lay for a NFL total...

[Moon88]

if you're taking a liking to the over? 37.5ov-106 or 38ov-102. Thanks

 

[SportSavant]

I dont know which is better... but I know which one I would bet...

37.5 -106 (perhaps I am a sucker... I dont know, but for only 4 cents, on a LOW total... this would be my decision....)

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

37.5 -1.06 is the right number. 37 and 38 are key, total numbers, to avoid a tie on 38 for 4 cents will payoff well long term...Best wishes...Moon88...OF

 

[Fezzik]

Agree with the froggie, but 37 is way more important than 38.

on/off 37 is worth about 9 cents. On/off 38 only around 5 cents.

Given this, fine to "buy" the 1/2 pt for an extra 4 cents in this case.

 

[tuleythetout]

What Fez said.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Since 1985 there have been 257 games hat closed with a total of 37 there were 5 pushes. In that time frame there were 251 games that closed with a total of 38, 7 of those pushed. So in terms of percentage 38 has a higher push probabilty than 37 does.

That si why I sometimes find it odd that peole agree with other swhen there is really no proof given.

While in theory a number might be more significant, in reality it is the opposite.

While past results may not have anything to do with future results, it is the only real way to find probabilities in a sport that is very difficult to predict.