What are your thoughts on sure bets (-3600 or above)

[gman79]

I realize there is technically no such thing as a sure bet, but what about those odds that are so slanted that the other side hits like once in a hundred years?

I've recently grown my account from $300 to $2500 through some lucky bets and blackjack. Now I'm growing it $80-$85 at a time by putting it all on the line with live betting on bets that I feel are pretty safe (-3600 or above).

At matchbook, someone gave me -20,000 odds that the oregon state game would go under 51 halfway into the 3rd quarter. The score was 3-0. There was no way it would hit, so I bet it all and won. It's a small amount, but it adds up quick and there is an astronomically small amount of risk. To minimize risk, I tend to keep bets to the last minutes of the 4th quarter, unless it is so close to a sure bet like the one above. What do you all think about this strategy?

 

[caseymcgillis]

it is a losing strategy in the long run.

there has been threads on this type of thing before ( betting favs above -2000 etc )

 

[SkateSharpener]

Is this a joke? And you your signature says "bet chaser" LOL too funny!

 

[gman79]

Is this a joke? And you your signature says "bet chaser" LOL too funny!

No, it's not a joke.

Let's make it safer. What about laying -10,000 or -20,000 odds? I could probably win for decades before even coming close to a loss. By that time, I would have plenty of money socked away. Do you honestly think it is possible for a team to come back 35 points in a single quarter to win?

I searched and couldn't find any similar threads. If anyone has useful criticism of this strategy, I welcome it. Otherwise, thanks for reading, but move along.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Do this quick risk/reward assessment: You are risking a giant amount, perhaps your entire bankroll, for a reward that is so tiny it may not even reach $20. All it would take is a single loss to wipe out hundreds of wins.

The bottom line is it's a bad betting strategy. You're far better off risking smaller amounts for larger payouts.

 

[SayHeyKid]

Not worth it, especially for a college total. Can you imagine how easy it would be to lose that under if the game ended up going into overtime 10-10 or something? If you're EVER going to lay -20,000. Never do it on such a thing as a college total.

 

[custom2006]

I realize there is technically no such thing as a sure bet, but what about those odds that are so slanted that the other side hits like once in a hundred years?

I've recently grown my account from $300 to $2500 through some lucky bets and blackjack. Now I'm growing it $80-$85 at a time by putting it all on the line with live betting on bets that I feel are pretty safe (-3600 or above).

At matchbook, someone gave me -20,000 odds that the oregon state game would go under 51 halfway into the 3rd quarter. The score was 3-0. There was no way it would hit, so I bet it all and won. It's a small amount, but it adds up quick and there is an astronomically small amount of risk. To minimize risk, I tend to keep bets to the last minutes of the 4th quarter, unless it is so close to a sure bet like the one above. What do you all think about this strategy?

I have done similiar bets (maybe 10) at Matchbook awhile back and like you, I did build my bankroll somewhat. But, as the other members are saying...it is not worth it! I had a close call on a game once and as the minutes ticked down all I remember thinking is "I risked $500.00 to win $75.00....how stupid of me" So, I did win that time but I told myself I would never do that again...and I have not Now, what I will do at Matchbook sometimes is wait for my team to score (for example) a touchdown when they are at +3.0 at gametime, now they are essentially 10 points up...then I will place my bet against someone....because there is always someone at Matchbook betting...my odds may be -135 or something, but overtime I have done well that way....that is an advantage/risk that I am willing to take....not -2000 etc....

 

[OnWisconsin]

-20,000 to one odds? holy lord. i'm the kind of guy who starts out with a $500 bankroll, cahes out profits once every 2 weeks, or if i'm below 500 i stick it out or bump it back up if i'm seriously down. i thought about doing what you're talking about but dismissed the idea. if it were that easy we'd all be rich. like someone said above, all it takes is one loss to wipe you out, and considering that it takes a lot of time to build a wad by taking these odds, a stanford/usc will come along. personally, i like to find a +3500 game once a week to put 10 bux on.

 

[XXXylic]

wow what books offer these huge lines?

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

I was *this* close to putting $100 on Texas at +350 the other night when they were on their final drive. Pussed out big-time though and kicked myself when they scored that TD.

After having tried your strategy for a few bucks here and there, I've realized that it's far better to let a team get down early, and then get really good plus-money on in-game betting and hope they come back.

 

[sumday]

It won't work. You can keep winning for months or more and be wiped out in one bet. Then what are you going to do? Start it again? You'd die of old age before you even break even again. There are far better strategies man.

 

[GimmeDattt]

All I am going to say is this. You can put in a years worth of plays and lose 1 and find yourself behind.

That Oregon St game. What happens if McCoy breaks a big run and it is 7-3. Say we get to overtime at 13-13. 26 you have 25 to give. Is it that impossible that they somehow match touchdowns. Match FG's and you lose.

Teams have erased 30 point leads before and will in the future. Unders have been destroyed in the 4th q. See Lions-Bears. Crazy shit happens in sports. Thats why most people can't win at it.

But the thought of going 300-1 and being down money just isn't going to win you money.

 

[whalewager]

books love players that do this...does that tell you anything?

very little reward for a lot of risk

 

[the_czar]

Let's See

You could have laid large odds on any of these. This is just a sample off the top of my head. I am sure others could chime in with many pages.

Mike Tyson beats Buster Douglas in 1990
USC beats Stanford in 2007
Virginia Tech beats Temple don't remember the year
West Virginia beats Pittsburgh in 2007
(Along with that game that LSU was 100-1 to win the National Championship prior to kickoff so there odds against were probably 200 or more against)
Eagles won't win NFC or 2009 Super Bowl after week 16 of regular season (maybe/maybe not)
Red Sox don't win 2004 World Series after game 3 of ALCS
(or on a lighter note Red Sox don't win 2007 World Series after game 4 of ALCS)
Yankees don't win 2001 AL after game two of Divisional Series
2008 Rays don't win AL
1999-2000 Rams don't win Super Bowl.
2000-2001 Ravens don't win Super Bowl
George Mason won't make final four in 2006.
Bills won't win AFC during game with Oilers in 1991 or was it 1992.

 

[scott366870]

my example is when I bet 5k on the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Texans when they had their first game as an expansion team.

I played the money line and the results were disasterous

watch out!!!!

 

[Snookslayer]

I tried one of those types of bets a few years back. There was some damn European soccer game on ESPN2 that I just happened to flip by in the final minutes of the game. The score was 0-2 with about 4 minutes left. By pure coincidence I was on-line making some bets and for some inexplicable reason I browsed by the soccer section and discovered they had "live game" soccer bets (at the time I didn't even know such bets existed). Then I noticed they offered a bet for the game that was on my tv. The bet was that the losing team wouldn't score 2 points and tie the game in the final 4 minutes for something like -6500. Now I don't know squat about soccer and I'd never bet on a soccer game in my entire life, but c'mon.... 2 goals in less the 4 minutes? After being shut out the entire game!?!? No way hell!!!!

You can guess what happened next. Half my bankroll gone in the blink an eye. It was all I could to keep from throwing my television out the window. I'm still not sure which is more unbelievable - the fact that I was stupid enough to risk over $600 for a measily $10, or the fact that they actually came back.

Now let's never speak of this again.

 

[whalewager]

I do it and have been for 33 years. My betonsports acct is at 3 million big ones right now the last time I checked. I need to go recheck that thing. I have been hiding this from my wife so we could retire in peace one day...I am so proud of myself.

Live your dreams son....here come the drumssssssss

 

[just_me_sam]

Lose one game and then tell me if you think it still works....

 

[artiesliver]

That's right, all it takes is one loss and you're in a hole.

Only things in life guaranteed: death, taxes, and Boston Sucks!

 

[TraderMike]

All I can say is that as a stock options trader I have seen the impossible happen overnight and have seen peoples lives ruined over a single short side trade with once in a century typre odds of going agianst them. Although I am using the markets as an example, it applies here. Just as it is dumb selling optin contracts at a nickel for a living, it is not prudent to the favorite side of extreme longshots because, as we have seen in the markets this year, variance is very real and extreme abberations can strike at any time. Bear Stearns, Countrywide, just to name a few.