General:
I look for teams that are being totally dominated in the first half and have been unable to move the ball either on the ground or through the air while their opponent is able to move the ball. This shows me a mismatch. Then I'm willing to either lay a few points or sometimes even get points. An example was in last night's game between Miami and Florida State. In the first half, Florida State was unable to move the ball and had only 44 yards at the half while Miami had moved the ball for approximately 140 yards both on the ground and in the air. The 10-0 score was misleading as a result of the two turnovers, one for a touchdown. With the second half line at Miami -3, I felt comfortable given how the game was being played. Just happened to turn out successful.