I hope not Borat, but I do know that WHEN I have plus 7 on a game, as a rule, the Underdog will ALWAYS foul with under 5 seconds left...
The Favorite will miss the first foul shot and make the second..
Then the losing team will take a meaningless three that goes in and out at the buzzer...
THE SHRINK
The Favorite will miss the first foul shot and make the second..
Then the losing team will take a meaningless three that goes in and out at the buzzer...
THE SHRINK
You are correct, 6 is the best number, because of the ways you can get it. 2 treys or 3 twos. No other number can do that. Of course 1,2 and 3 are good, but like The Shrink says, you get fouls and those small numbers do not hit. You are better off having the game tied, if you are on a small number. But, as far as the 7, it does nothing for me. I generally do not buy numbers, in fact I do not. However, I will check 20 outs for the best, and the best price. There is no magical 3 like the NFL. But in my experience, 6 is a huge number. Provided one early regular season team, and a play in NBA capping forum. Hopefully makeup for Cards baserunning champs of the postseason. 
Last edited:
That's right. And on most games a good shopper can get a '6' instead of a '5'' or a '7' instead of a '6' or viece versa for the favorite. You imrpove your return tremendously by doing this. It can turn a 50% play into a 55% play and vice versa.Fishhead said:
Line shopping is more important for NBA sides than for any other single sport (except maybe for props and futures).
You are on the money as usual D2. In the NBA playoffs alone I had a number hit 6 times, where I had the extra hard to find hook. And it was a rogue apex number, The unit gain was between 14 and 15. But they were crazy numbers, 11's, 8's, a 6 and a 3. If I remember correctly. Those wins were just from screen watching, or feel for the movement. The numbers fall regularly, especially the totals. I lost track of how many halves I hit. I know 3 in the last two Finals games. I stagger along at football, make money in bases for once, but the NBA, I will tell you where the line is going, and what it should be. I watch or roll tape on every game I can, monitor every injury. I picked apart the Chinaman's stuff for years, reverse capping, why does he like this? Probably the best long term NBA capper I have ever seen. Last person in the world you want to disagree with. Gleaned a lot of game there. Incorporate my own stuff and do some deep analysis. If I am on my game, I will tell you position by position, what will happen. I will throw out what is supposed to happen, and objectively form my own opinion. After I get down I will post a play or two. You more than anyone D2, knows my writeups. Props, halves, money lines, that is what I do.
As far as the 7 and 6 comparison, I am practically alone. You view the 7 as a cutoff for fouling, I view the 6 as a goal for the losing team. They want a two possession game. If they are down by 8, they attempt a two. Down by 9, attempt a three. Either way, they are going for that two possession game, from their need. How many games get to the 6, at the end? They shoot the trey, clang it and foul. Some stiff bricks both, and think how often that happens, Loser gets one more chance for 3, misses, gameover. The team with lead, wants to maintain the 3 poss game, the team behind has to make it a 2 poss game. But from a value standpoint, alone, I like the 7. 6 1/2 is always a goal. But to reiterate the point, I would not focus on the original number, but the best number available. That will make a difference in the long term, that a key number will never equal. Ribbit.:heh:
As far as the 7 and 6 comparison, I am practically alone. You view the 7 as a cutoff for fouling, I view the 6 as a goal for the losing team. They want a two possession game. If they are down by 8, they attempt a two. Down by 9, attempt a three. Either way, they are going for that two possession game, from their need. How many games get to the 6, at the end? They shoot the trey, clang it and foul. Some stiff bricks both, and think how often that happens, Loser gets one more chance for 3, misses, gameover. The team with lead, wants to maintain the 3 poss game, the team behind has to make it a 2 poss game. But from a value standpoint, alone, I like the 7. 6 1/2 is always a goal. But to reiterate the point, I would not focus on the original number, but the best number available. That will make a difference in the long term, that a key number will never equal. Ribbit.:heh:
13? If true, methinks that is a statistical anamoly. Given the choice, I'll take a middle on a '5' line over a '13' line any day of the week. That said, I can remember offhand hitting a few '13' middles and sides over the last couple years. I certainly wouldn't pass them up if the odds are right.
Damn, now I'm getting exicted about hoops. =)
Damn, now I'm getting exicted about hoops. =)
I only have the NBA 2003-2004 season data handy at the moment (including playoffs). Here's how the margin of victory broke down:
1: 4.2%
2: 5.3%
3: 6.1%
4: 6.0%
5: 6.4%
6: 7.0%
7: 6.8%
8: 6.1%
9: 5.9%
10: 5.0%
With a bigger sample size, 7 would prove to be tops. But still, this gives one a reasonable feel for key numbers.
1: 4.2%
2: 5.3%
3: 6.1%
4: 6.0%
5: 6.4%
6: 7.0%
7: 6.8%
8: 6.1%
9: 5.9%
10: 5.0%
With a bigger sample size, 7 would prove to be tops. But still, this gives one a reasonable feel for key numbers.
