Yes, everyone knows the Mac sucks as a whole. "Fade the Mac" blah blah blah. BUT..the Mac does have an ATS win this bowl season. Bowling Green, a team with a decent offense, beat a South Alabama team that could not keep up when it had the ball. Doesn't matter how good South Alabama's defense was perceived, the offense still had to outscore them and they did not. So what does this have to do with Western Kentucky?
First, lets take a look at the other two Mac teams who already played their bowls and lost. Western Mich and Northern Illy; both of whom are CLEARLY more well rounded then Bowling Green. Western Mich dominated B.G. the 2nd half of their match up back in week 7. B.G. did not score a point in the 2nd half. Obviously everyone knows what Northern Illy did, smashed them few weeks back in their CC.
So again, what does this have to do with Western Kentucky..
Well, the only Mac team with an ATS win this Bowl Season, just happened to get absolutely demolished by Western Kentucky week one. 53-29! When these Mac teams play a squad with a offense that EXCELS at either running or passing.. they give up a TON of points. Marshall throws the ball VERY well...destroyed their Conference champ. Air Force RUNS the ball very...Double Digit win against the 2nd best team in the conference that had a 10-3 ATS mark this season.. Well guess what, Western Kentucky DOES BOTH, VERY WELL.
They have an aerial attack that is ranked 3rd in the nation. Funny thing is, the guy in front of him (Shane Cardon ECU) has 28 more yards on 58 more attempts and the guy behind him has 167 LESS yards on 44 MORE attempts! That leaves the wash st dude who has 200+ more attempts ohyeah, they also run for 160 a game.
Now onto the Over...
42,32, 27. These are the amount of points Central Mich has given up in three different games this year. The common denominator was.. these were the highest passing per yard ranked offenses they had faced all year. Miami, OH, a terrible 2-10 team, ranked 39 in passing ypg (mostly cause they are always down) team was in the game the ENITRE time two weeks back. Western Kentucky can throw it substantially better than any of those 3 teams they have faced this year.
BUT THE TRUTH IS, WESTERN KENTUCKY'S DEFENSE IS ABSOLUTE TRASH. They are awful against the run and awful against the pass. They good news is, Central Michigan does not throw the ball well enough to take advantage of Western Kentucky's awful secondary to the point of their Qb moving the ball more consistently then Western Kentucky QB Doughty.
*Game Changer*
Western kentucky totals have gone over 68 in ALL GAMES except for these 4 situations...
Against Army 66 pts 2nd most rushes in FBS... 115th in TOTAL OFFENSE.
Against Navy 63 pts 3rd most rushes in FBS.
Against UTEP 62 pts 28th most rushes in FBS. 108th TOTAL OFFENSE.
Against UTSA 52 pts 121st TOTAL OFFENSE. Good defense.
Central Mich not even in top 50 most rushing teams(62)....71st in TOTAL offense, which is good enough against this bad defense.
There is nothing more satisfying then doing your Due Diligence all night and hammering a play and winning. But the truth is, this is a game against two teams that are not even close to top 25 teams, so anything can happen especially with a huge layover. Timing could be off, fumbles, tipped balls...you cant cap those things. But I except Doughty to have a game similar to Kato. Go out on a bang. Weather going to be nice, obviously. I fully except this total to rise. So onto the wagers
Over 68 2 units
W.K. TT over 36 1 unit
WK ML 1 unit
WK -4 .5 unit
WK-4/over 68 .5 unit
Why Moneyline? Because their defense, sucks. But ill take the MUCH better QB, against a defense that gets lit up against pass happy teams. I fully expect WK to outscore Central Mich, there SHOULD come a point when Western takes a lead and Central Mich is forced to abandon the run..when that happens...points will be scored. This should be one of those games where teams just get chunk yardage plays over and over. Gluck everyone!!!
First, lets take a look at the other two Mac teams who already played their bowls and lost. Western Mich and Northern Illy; both of whom are CLEARLY more well rounded then Bowling Green. Western Mich dominated B.G. the 2nd half of their match up back in week 7. B.G. did not score a point in the 2nd half. Obviously everyone knows what Northern Illy did, smashed them few weeks back in their CC.
So again, what does this have to do with Western Kentucky..
Well, the only Mac team with an ATS win this Bowl Season, just happened to get absolutely demolished by Western Kentucky week one. 53-29! When these Mac teams play a squad with a offense that EXCELS at either running or passing.. they give up a TON of points. Marshall throws the ball VERY well...destroyed their Conference champ. Air Force RUNS the ball very...Double Digit win against the 2nd best team in the conference that had a 10-3 ATS mark this season.. Well guess what, Western Kentucky DOES BOTH, VERY WELL.
They have an aerial attack that is ranked 3rd in the nation. Funny thing is, the guy in front of him (Shane Cardon ECU) has 28 more yards on 58 more attempts and the guy behind him has 167 LESS yards on 44 MORE attempts! That leaves the wash st dude who has 200+ more attempts ohyeah, they also run for 160 a game.
Now onto the Over...
42,32, 27. These are the amount of points Central Mich has given up in three different games this year. The common denominator was.. these were the highest passing per yard ranked offenses they had faced all year. Miami, OH, a terrible 2-10 team, ranked 39 in passing ypg (mostly cause they are always down) team was in the game the ENITRE time two weeks back. Western Kentucky can throw it substantially better than any of those 3 teams they have faced this year.
BUT THE TRUTH IS, WESTERN KENTUCKY'S DEFENSE IS ABSOLUTE TRASH. They are awful against the run and awful against the pass. They good news is, Central Michigan does not throw the ball well enough to take advantage of Western Kentucky's awful secondary to the point of their Qb moving the ball more consistently then Western Kentucky QB Doughty.
*Game Changer*
Western kentucky totals have gone over 68 in ALL GAMES except for these 4 situations...
Against Army 66 pts 2nd most rushes in FBS... 115th in TOTAL OFFENSE.
Against Navy 63 pts 3rd most rushes in FBS.
Against UTEP 62 pts 28th most rushes in FBS. 108th TOTAL OFFENSE.
Against UTSA 52 pts 121st TOTAL OFFENSE. Good defense.
Central Mich not even in top 50 most rushing teams(62)....71st in TOTAL offense, which is good enough against this bad defense.
There is nothing more satisfying then doing your Due Diligence all night and hammering a play and winning. But the truth is, this is a game against two teams that are not even close to top 25 teams, so anything can happen especially with a huge layover. Timing could be off, fumbles, tipped balls...you cant cap those things. But I except Doughty to have a game similar to Kato. Go out on a bang. Weather going to be nice, obviously. I fully except this total to rise. So onto the wagers
Over 68 2 units
W.K. TT over 36 1 unit
WK ML 1 unit
WK -4 .5 unit
WK-4/over 68 .5 unit
Why Moneyline? Because their defense, sucks. But ill take the MUCH better QB, against a defense that gets lit up against pass happy teams. I fully expect WK to outscore Central Mich, there SHOULD come a point when Western takes a lead and Central Mich is forced to abandon the run..when that happens...points will be scored. This should be one of those games where teams just get chunk yardage plays over and over. Gluck everyone!!!
