West Virginia

[SoonerBS]

Somebody help me out with this team a bit. Since they accepted an invitation to join the Big 12, all the talking heads around the conference are talking about how tough they will be and that they will be favored in a lot of their games. But, I'm not sure I see them as having the same or better a record than what they had this season. They played in a weak conference where they went 5-2 and three of those wins were only by 3 points or less. They have 10 senior starters that are graduating off this team and I don't know if there are any under class players jumping the ship for the pros. To me, most of their hype going into 2012 is their huge blowout win against Clemson. Let's face it though, guys, Clemson was just another ACC team (another weak conference) who was obviously not ready to play against a Holgerson offense.

The only thing I can see for a validation of promoting West Virginia into a Big 12 darkhorse role is the fact that the conference will be down this year. I think Oklahoma has to be the hands on favorite to win the conference this season with an experienced and talented QB coming back for his senior season. I also like the way they filled some holes in their recruiting this season with talented JUCO players that should be ready to play immediately. There is also another factor that makes Oklahoma's outlook much better this season that most do not know about -- the last season had a lot of internal player conflicts going on that highly affected the team play. Stoops kicked a bunch of the problems off the team and set it straight with the remaining players that there would be no more toleration of problems. Considering the personnel they had to play with in their bowl game against Iowa, I liked what I saw in attitude and player potential in that game. Anyway, Oklahoma State will be down along with Baylor and everyone else should be about the same as last season.

I think it is going to take a toll on West Virginia to play against stiffer competition week in and week out. I think you will see it with TCU as well. West Virginia may not see better defenses, but they are going to see overall better team speeds and offenses that can keep up with them if not exceed them.

I bring this all up because I think the Over/Under on team wins for West Virginia might be set around 8. I think that is too high. I can legitimately see them losing about 5 of the games that are currently scheduled: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, K-State and maybe even Baylor or Iowa State.

Am I missing something by not being on the WVU bandwagon?

 

[SoonerBS]

I might also mention that that November 3rd game on the road against Iowa State that Oklahoma is playing looks to be a definite letdown spot. They come off a home game against Notre Dame the week before and follow Iowa State up with a home game, and revenge spot against Baylor. You can go ahead and pencil that one in as a good ATS bet on Iowa State.

 

[Conan]

I bet you that when they travel to play Texas, their juices will be flowing 110%. Unless the whorns are experiencing an uptick in performance on the field, I would expect an upset SU win for WVA. Texas is still 50% hype any way you look at it. They talk way too much about things that will never happen and their AC turnover is something to behold.

 

[russ1945]

Other than the loss to Syracuse their 10-3 record speaks for itself. They return 8 on the offense (including QB) that laid 70 points on Clemson in their bowl game. Considering OU lost to Texas Tech I can forgive the loss to Syracuse. They will pay the price of traveling so far so often but this team is very capable. They have more fire power than the Whorns so who knows in that one. They return 6 on defense and 2 on Sp teams. Team on the rise in my opinion who seems to have found themselves in the bowl game. Their HC ain't off to a bad start at 10-3 and their loss to LSU was forgivable.

 

[cloverleaf]

Since WV dropped Florida State, the non-conference schedule is not very difficult (Marshall, James Madison, Maryland). They play all three games before opening conference play with Baylor. A plus for the Mountain boys is getting Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma and Kansas in Morgantown.

My guess is West Virginia is looking at an 8-4 season. (7-5 at worst and 9-3 at best)

 

[groundhog11]

we return 10 starters on off...all skill position players return...with our best o-lineman coming back after having knee surgery....another year with the off. to fine tune things...


the problem will be on def.....especially the d-line....the front 3 will be ok, but we have no depth on d-line....several players in the lb position got a ton of game experience of mulitple games last year which should help. same for the secondary...

schedule is favorable i think....occ games are all in motown....will be unbeaten in those. in conference play, only 1 big 12 team will have a bye before they play us, which is kansas...tough to prepare for this off in a week....also, kansas st, okla, and tcu games are all in morgantown.


no way baylor wins in motown for the big 12 opener....but i would still favor okla as the favorite...

 

[GoSooners]

ground hog...i heard today that WV hired DC Keith Patterson from Arkansas St. Malzahn was going to hire him to be his DC for the upcoming season. But WV pulled him away. DC was my biggest concern. Casteel was a very underrated DC in my opinion. SoonersBS...My opinion could change in a few months, but right now with who they have coming back, along with their favorable schedule, I think WV has a decent chance to win the "weakened" Big 12 or finish maybe a game behind OU depending on how the Sooners do when they go to Morgantown.

 

[GoSooners]

ground hog...i heard today that WV hired DC Keith Patterson from Arkansas St. Malzahn was going to hire him to be his DC for the upcoming season. But WV pulled him away. DC was my biggest concern. Casteel was a very underrated DC in my opinion. SoonersBS...My opinion could change in a few months, but right now with who they have coming back, along with their favorable schedule, I think WV has a decent chance to win the "weakened" Big 12 or finish maybe a game behind OU depending on how the Sooners do when they go to Morgantown.

I want to add that WV was a little bit of an inconsistent team last season. But my guess is it was more because of the Stewart/Holgerson debacle and Holgerson implemeting his system in his first season. Usually a team will be a little more consistent in their second year if the coach is worth his weight. Trouble is we've only seen one year of Holgerson. So it's not easy to rate him as a coach just yet. That's why my mind could change on this team the closer we get to the fall. Or through their first couple of games. I do think WV is going to be a very exciting team to watch. But like TCU, they are coming into a whole new situation where they better plan on scoring many more points to win games than they did in the offensively challenged Big East and MWC.

 

[groundhog11]

im kind of glad casteel left. i like his defense except he never brought enough pressure. a bend but dont break defense. his def was really good when he had a bunch of seniors...also, the Def coaches and holgs didnt get along either. casteel could of stayed but holgs made it clear that lockwood(secondary coach) and kirlav(d-line coach) would not be back next year so casteel stayed loyal,took a paycut then went with rrod to arizona. they got in a fight over...holgs said no contact, tackling on the dline during the season and well everyone of the def coaches thought there should be contact...lol.

 

[groundhog11]

I want to add that WV was a little bit of an inconsistent team last season. But my guess is it was more because of the Stewart/Holgerson debacle and Holgerson implemeting his system in his first season. Usually a team will be a little more consistent in their second year if the coach is worth his weight. Trouble is we've only seen one year of Holgerson. So it's not easy to rate him as a coach just yet. That's why my mind could change on this team the closer we get to the fall. Or through their first couple of games. I do think WV is going to be a very exciting team to watch. But like TCU, they are coming into a whole new situation where they better plan on scoring many more points to win games than they did in the offensively challenged Big East and MWC.

wvu was really inconsistent last year....play to level of competition....the louis game, wvu just beat themselves....syr game they got whipped.

with the new kickoff rule, our kicker couldnt make it to the endzone, so teams would start out at the 40 against us. hopefully, there will be more touchbacks this year.

 

[taylor13]

Local radio station here in DFW had Oliver Luck on the other day. Mr. luck said realistically, its gonna take a couple years to adjust to the Big 12 as far as winning a championship. He said west va doesn't have anywhere near the talent the better teams have. Straight from the AD's mouth.....I'm sure west va will have some games circled and look really good in a few games, but I wouldn't get your hopes up. They are about to see a completely different caliber of players compared to what they are used too.

I do think TCU @west va will end up being the best game of the year in the big 12

 

[groundhog11]

as of right now, i think wvu will go 9-3 to 10-2 next year.....losses at texas, at home to okla ....split vs. tcu/kst...

 

[SoonerBS]

I just think you guys may be evaluating WVU from a Big East view instead of considering what the results are going to be once they get into the grind of playing consistently better teams every week. I also have a question about Holgorsen's ability to stay consistently cool and calm through a season in the Big 12.

I think they will only win 8 games or less and if I get the opportunity to play that number for an UNDER 9 play, I will do it. I usually don't bet those kind of prop bets because I don't like having my money tied up for 3 or 4 months, but I think it is going to be tougher than what a lot of people do for WVU to have the same success in the Big 12 than what they had in the Big East. I think it is going to be interesting to see what Vegas thinks as well whenever they put the numbers out there on the Overs/Unders.

 

[GoSooners]

I just think you guys may be evaluating WVU from a Big East view instead of considering what the results are going to be once they get into the grind of playing consistently better teams every week. I also have a question about Holgorsen's ability to stay consistently cool and calm through a season in the Big 12.

I think they will only win 8 games or less and if I get the opportunity to play that number for an UNDER 9 play, I will do it. I usually don't bet those kind of prop bets because I don't like having my money tied up for 3 or 4 months, but I think it is going to be tougher than what a lot of people do for WVU to have the same success in the Big 12 than what they had in the Big East. I think it is going to be interesting to see what Vegas thinks as well whenever they put the numbers out there on the Overs/Unders.

I'm keeping an open mind about this team because they traditionally play tough at home. And the travel problems to Morgantown will be there for the rest of the Big 12 as well as it will be for WV when they play on the road. I'm thinking they'll probably be a team like Baylor was in 2011. Strong offense, bad to average defense, and tough to beat at home. But vulnerable on the road. Baylor won 10 games in 2011, so winning 8 or 9 games isn't out of the realm of possibility with WV's schedule. I do agree with you about Holgerson. He gives me the impression he could unravel at the seams if things start to go south for his team. Plus the Karma factor sometimes catch up with these new coaches in their second year after after their teams surprise in the first season. And I would say making it to a BCS bowl and winning it was a pretty big achievement for a first year coach. I DO think people will make too much out of that game with Clemson. Clemson totally shot themsleves in the foot in that game, and then just gave it up. The fumble on the goal line and WV bringing it back for a TD was a back breaker that totally changed the momentum of that game. It's not taking away from WV's win. But those two teams weren't as far apart as the score. So from a betting perspective, WV could be a little overvalued to start the 2012 season.

 

[Conan]

All very interesting points that are interesting because this is new Big-12 stuff. WVA fleeing the Big-E for the B-12 is about the only thing I consider to be a positive development as far as the conference goes... that plus dumping their commish at the insistence of OU's AD which not even Texas attempted to stop. (as far as we know)

I wonder what the Mountaineer fan base thinks of all this?
That will also impact how well they do in the B-12 conference.

 

[919]

I fully expect WVU to light it up offensively and average around 40+/game with the firepower coming back and Holgorsen's history. Tavon Austin is electric. He may be the most talented skill position player in school history. That said, they will need to put up a ton because the defense will be giving up a bunch. Expect a lot of overs.

 

[cloverleaf]

Great thead Sooner.

Men/lady this is what RX College Football is all about. Damn good stuff.

Why my crowd likes the RX during the offseason.

 

[919]

wvu was really inconsistent last year....play to level of competition....the louis game, wvu just beat themselves....syr game they got whipped.

with the new kickoff rule, our kicker couldnt make it to the endzone, so teams would start out at the 40 against us. hopefully, there will be more touchbacks this year.

Getting Deforest, considered a top special teams coach, will help here. Also like that the coaching staff has a bit of Big12 flavor. Their knowledge of the league should help to ease the transition.