I don't know how others have broken these games down but thought I would throw in my 2 cents. This for me is a great night considering I am a Boiler Alum and have grown up a Mizzou fan. I believe one of them will pull the upset tonight though unsure which one it will be. Anyway here are some thoughts from my point of view on why Mizzou and Purdue may not only cover tonight but win outright.
Purdue vs UConn....After beating Washington on Saturday, the Boilers actually flew straight to Arizona and did not go back to campus. They have been secluded in their rooms besides normal basketball duties. This is a team that was a preseason top 10 team and in some publications and polls in the top 5 right along with Huskies. Injuries were a main reason Purdue did not win regular season title. Lifetiime Purdue is 4-0 vs UConn with last win in 1992. Thabeet,Adrien, and company are definitely tough for Boilers to deal with inside but Boilers inside people in Johnson, Hummel, Calesan are very capable 2 way offensive players who shoot the 3 pointer as well as have nice inside games. This will cause trouble for Uconn's big men having to play away from the basket. Purdue's guards are very adapt at driving to hoop as well. Whether UConn wins or loses, this may be the first game they will show chinks in their armor from losing star guard for the season. Boilers are a very strong defensive team having held opponents to 38% shooting and under 60 ppg. If this is the type of tempo and game that is played, 7 points will be too many. I expect this to come down to the last minute of the game either way which I believe will be an advantage for Boilers. Boilers can play a physical style similar to Pitt who Connecticut struggled with. As a sidenote, I truly wonder how much alleged infractions of UConn program will affect team tonight. You can say all the right things but its hard for me to believe that negativity to the program does not affect them somewhat mentally. Most of these Boilers are from Indiana and have played together during the summers so I feel the want to factor is very strong for Boilers in this game. Either way, Boilers +7 is the right side to be on tonight.
Mizzou vs Memphis: Memphis comes into this game having won 27 in a row. There is a ton of history between these programs and coaches. Many people may not know that Calipari was one of the 3 finalists a decade ago along with Quin Snyder and Bill Self before Mizzou settled on Snyder which set program back a decade. Mike Anderson was the last coach in conference USA to beat Memphis and Calipari before the streak started for Tigers for consecutive wins so they know each other quite well. Looking at the stats, they look quite even but I would have to say the competition Mizzou saw in Big 12 vs competition Memphis saw in Conference USA was like night and day. As a result, I believe Memphis stats would actually not be as good if they played schedule Mizzou did. Many people have been talking about this game's key being Memphis ability to break press. I for one think they will score some easy baskets at times but the freshman point guard is very prone to turnovers so Mizzou should get their way at times as well. I put this as even. The next thing is the misnomer that Mizzou is not a half court team and that Memphis's leading defense will stymiie Tigers and not allow them to get into the press. Mizzou is actually very able to play half court as they avg. 8 touches per possession in half court and are very efficient with inside out play going through Carroll. I put this as even. I believe there is 3 keys to this game:
1. Free Throw shooting: Both teams are teams not know for shooting great at the charity line. It will be key in this game. Memphis hit 17 for 22 vs Maryland which is encouraging while Mizzou hit all key ft's down stretch vs Marquette.
2. 3 Point Shooting: Memphis is going to get their points inside with Taggert,Dozier, etc. but what Mizzou can not afford is for them to stay hot from 3 point area where they were 10 for 19 the first game. Mizzou will need Lawrence and rather English or Taylor to play strong behind the line in this game.
3. Foul Trouble: Both teams are pretty deep with slight edge to Mizzou here but Mizzou has to keep a few key players out of foul trouble. Memphis can't afford to get Dozier in foul trouble as well.
Overall, I expect this not to be a high scoring game as many may think it might. I expect a game actually played in the 60's to low 70's. Mizzou is the team with most tourney appearances without a Final Four appearance. I don't know if this is the year either but after breaking through unexpectedly, they have a feel of it especially with their luck in Boise last weekend. The fact that these teams are somewhat rivals from years past should also add some physical play to the game. I do believe Mizzou can win this game outright but think for sure Mizzou +4.5 is the right side.
I am dreaming of a Purdue/Mizzou Final 8 game Saturday which odds are won't happen but like I said in beginning of thread, one of them will break through tonight and I do believe both will cover. I would love to hear others thoughts.
Purdue vs UConn....After beating Washington on Saturday, the Boilers actually flew straight to Arizona and did not go back to campus. They have been secluded in their rooms besides normal basketball duties. This is a team that was a preseason top 10 team and in some publications and polls in the top 5 right along with Huskies. Injuries were a main reason Purdue did not win regular season title. Lifetiime Purdue is 4-0 vs UConn with last win in 1992. Thabeet,Adrien, and company are definitely tough for Boilers to deal with inside but Boilers inside people in Johnson, Hummel, Calesan are very capable 2 way offensive players who shoot the 3 pointer as well as have nice inside games. This will cause trouble for Uconn's big men having to play away from the basket. Purdue's guards are very adapt at driving to hoop as well. Whether UConn wins or loses, this may be the first game they will show chinks in their armor from losing star guard for the season. Boilers are a very strong defensive team having held opponents to 38% shooting and under 60 ppg. If this is the type of tempo and game that is played, 7 points will be too many. I expect this to come down to the last minute of the game either way which I believe will be an advantage for Boilers. Boilers can play a physical style similar to Pitt who Connecticut struggled with. As a sidenote, I truly wonder how much alleged infractions of UConn program will affect team tonight. You can say all the right things but its hard for me to believe that negativity to the program does not affect them somewhat mentally. Most of these Boilers are from Indiana and have played together during the summers so I feel the want to factor is very strong for Boilers in this game. Either way, Boilers +7 is the right side to be on tonight.
Mizzou vs Memphis: Memphis comes into this game having won 27 in a row. There is a ton of history between these programs and coaches. Many people may not know that Calipari was one of the 3 finalists a decade ago along with Quin Snyder and Bill Self before Mizzou settled on Snyder which set program back a decade. Mike Anderson was the last coach in conference USA to beat Memphis and Calipari before the streak started for Tigers for consecutive wins so they know each other quite well. Looking at the stats, they look quite even but I would have to say the competition Mizzou saw in Big 12 vs competition Memphis saw in Conference USA was like night and day. As a result, I believe Memphis stats would actually not be as good if they played schedule Mizzou did. Many people have been talking about this game's key being Memphis ability to break press. I for one think they will score some easy baskets at times but the freshman point guard is very prone to turnovers so Mizzou should get their way at times as well. I put this as even. The next thing is the misnomer that Mizzou is not a half court team and that Memphis's leading defense will stymiie Tigers and not allow them to get into the press. Mizzou is actually very able to play half court as they avg. 8 touches per possession in half court and are very efficient with inside out play going through Carroll. I put this as even. I believe there is 3 keys to this game:
1. Free Throw shooting: Both teams are teams not know for shooting great at the charity line. It will be key in this game. Memphis hit 17 for 22 vs Maryland which is encouraging while Mizzou hit all key ft's down stretch vs Marquette.
2. 3 Point Shooting: Memphis is going to get their points inside with Taggert,Dozier, etc. but what Mizzou can not afford is for them to stay hot from 3 point area where they were 10 for 19 the first game. Mizzou will need Lawrence and rather English or Taylor to play strong behind the line in this game.
3. Foul Trouble: Both teams are pretty deep with slight edge to Mizzou here but Mizzou has to keep a few key players out of foul trouble. Memphis can't afford to get Dozier in foul trouble as well.
Overall, I expect this not to be a high scoring game as many may think it might. I expect a game actually played in the 60's to low 70's. Mizzou is the team with most tourney appearances without a Final Four appearance. I don't know if this is the year either but after breaking through unexpectedly, they have a feel of it especially with their luck in Boise last weekend. The fact that these teams are somewhat rivals from years past should also add some physical play to the game. I do believe Mizzou can win this game outright but think for sure Mizzou +4.5 is the right side.
I am dreaming of a Purdue/Mizzou Final 8 game Saturday which odds are won't happen but like I said in beginning of thread, one of them will break through tonight and I do believe both will cover. I would love to hear others thoughts.
