West Coast/Pac-10 Week 6

[Conan]

3 quickies that I wish I could bet now but for some reason I can't hook up to Bookmaker through my ISP. Has anyone else had this problem today?


Stanford +7/ND* -- The game means a lot to Stanford. A marquee matchup for them. Another statement game for Harbaugh. I'm going to wait on the status of Gerhardt before I bet this one or I might get a better number later. Anthony Kimble isn't too bad of a backup. Stanford QB Pritchard has been improving.

AZ-19.5/UW* -- UW is in a bad way. Locker with a broken thumb. No defense to slow down the Wildcat scoring machine.

UCLA-16.5/WSU* -- OK let's just say I'm fading both Washington teams this weekend. UCLA's offense seems itchin' to break out. Couldn't ask for a better opponent.

I'm going to open a couple of accounts this week, probably reup 5Dimes or open a new account at BetJM, neither of whom I have wagered with lately. I need to shop these lines more and Bodog is worthless to me unless I see some kind of squirelly line I want to play with whatever chump change left in my account.

 

[krk1030]

Bookmaker has been down all day.

 

[Conan]

Bookmaker has been down all day.

Heh. I thought it was me. Someone posted their lines here. Wonder how he got them? The lines I used are at the greek.

 

[SunDodger]

Looks good, Conan.

The Husky defense is SO BAD. They are allowing over 7 yards a play. I see only one game left they have chance at winning.

Suprised to see your Beavers are +10.5 dogs this week at Utah. What do you think of that game??

 

[Conan]

Looks good, Conan.

The Husky defense is SO BAD. They are allowing over 7 yards a play. I see only one game left they have chance at winning.

Suprised to see your Beavers are +10.5 dogs this week at Utah. What do you think of that game??

I've been thinking a lot about the upcoming Beaver game since yesterday. If I hear any talk at practice like, we'd better focus on Utah, then I know there's problems with a let down or a look back... lack of focus. Anything... anything at all and I'll fade them. They have not demonstrated that they can put it all together on the road and that would be something meaningful to see. So I have my doubts. Furthermore, Utah isn't a team to work out your problems with when you play them. They'll eat you alive. But if the line keeps rising and I hear things like the players are relaxed but practicing hard and working up a good sweat when they have a final walk through Wednesday, I'll bet them.

I watched the replay of the USC game a couple of times and their quickness was literally blinding and confusing to watch. I was in awe but I'm not quite sure what I saw... some kind of double zone penetration was mentioned. WTF is that? You can tell I don't quite read where they are at yet but it seems to be good. (I think)

If they win this game they might be ranked afterwards. There's a 1 in 100 chance they get the Rose Bowl with Penn. St. in Jan. Wouldn't that be interesting?

Aside from all that, I don't think they'll get their asses kicked badly on the road Thursday night on TV. Been there done that. I'd like to see if the Beaver side will get more points though first.

 

[Conan]

OK I'm down with these for now...

ASU+9.5/Cal* I see no reason why Rudy Carpenter can't keep moving the ball vs a pretty weak passing defense in Cal. Jahvid Best is hurting. Dislocated elbow, ouch. I wonder if it's the the arm that he usually uses to carry the ball?

UCLA-17/WSU* As I mentioned, UCLA's offense seems to be waking up. Rusing the ball especially which is the WSU defense's biggest problem.

AZ-19/UW* Down down down the Huskies play goes. What a horrible defense, again. They play in Arizona no less vs one of the best offenses in the Pac-10. It will probably get ugly.

Oregon+16.5/USC* USC's defense will be slowed down a notch or 2 with Maualuga sporting a sore knee and Shareece Wright out of the game. Who else? I'm also thinking that USC's young OL may not find Oregon's experienced DL very easy either. Sanchez may be throwing more often than he would like. I just don't see USC rolling the Ducks badly here. Less than 2 TD's if both teams are on their game at the coliseum. Could be less than that. 16.5 seems a little bit disrespectful of the best rushing offense in the Pac-10. Masoli looked pretty good throwing the ball last week but USC will present a bigger challenge compared to WSU. That goes without saying. Perhaps the Ducks are catching the Trojans at a bad time. They must be reeling from an upset that came totally out of the blue... and were they ever beaten badly! That just seems like a lot of points to lay vs Oregon. Typical price for USC bettors to be paying.

Or.St.+11/Utah -- I'd really like to pull the trigger on Oregon St. here but experience says going to Utah is not very easy. It's gonna take some points for me to consider betting the Beavers. At 11 I'd lean Utah. But is this Beaver team the usual? Dunno.

 

[Delta00]

Totally aggree on ASU, UCLA and Stanford.

Don't know what to make of Oregon State really. Moeavo had hte game of his life at USC and isn't representative of what he will usually do. That being said, I have been less impressed than I thought I would be with Utah's defense thus far, Michigan marched right with them, in their first game of the season. Public perception has to be sky high of the Beavs right now and to install them as 11 point dogs to a non-BCS team makes me think Vegas is writing between the lines here.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

I posted Zona & Oregon tonight as well.. good to see we are on the same side..... I am still looking at ASU/CAL game. I want to talk with a few people that are involved with the program, in Tempe about the mind set of ASU right now after the back to back defeats. Kegan should be back for this game. They need to get a stronger running game going! I will get back here with any info that may be of help!

 

[Conan]

Couple line corrections. I just found a better deal at Carib on the Stanford and UCLA games... so here's the revised bets. I've placed them as follows:

Stanford+7.5/ND* ??? (I'm waiting on a better number in this one)
UCLA-16.5/WSU** (best bet)
ASU+9.5/CAL*
OR+16.5/USC*
AZ-19/UW*

 

[Conan]

I posted Zona & Oregon tonight as well.. good to see we are on the same side..... I am still looking at ASU/CAL game. I want to talk with a few people that are involved with the program, in Tempe about the mind set of ASU right now after the back to back defeats. Kegan should be back for this game. They need to get a stronger running game going! I will get back here with any info that may be of help!

:aktion033

Great minds think alike.

:toast:


PS... UW'S rush defense is atrocious. UCLA's OL and running game showed a pulse last week vs. Fresneck. Messed me up. So be it. They should make back vs the Huskies what they cost me last week. UW's defense is like a get well card for UCLA. I'm sure Norm Chow recognizes the opportunity.

 

[Conan]

Public perception has to be sky high of the Beavs right now and to install them as 11 point dogs to a non-BCS team makes me think Vegas is writing between the lines here.

Yes. And so my lean towards Utah would be justified. The so called "sky high on Oregon St. public" just bet the game up to 11. I think we are dealing with sharps regarding that move. But what do they know? Do they know what I know? I'm going to do some research on this situation where the Beavers are concerned. I got a feeling they won't turn up looking so good. Every time I step back instead of taking a leap of faith they prove me wrong. On the other hand, every time I take a leap of faith, they prove me equally wrong. Maybe I should call upon some better judgment. I still lean Utah.

 

[GarryP]

Oregon+16.5/USC* USC's defense will be slowed down a notch or 2 with Maualuga sporting a sore knee and Shareece Wright out of the game. Who else?

Shareece Wright, starting corner, out with fucked up neck...pinched nerve. (possible cover-up because of legal problems:think2

Maualuga....well, you all saw him go down against Oregon State.

Brian Cushing broke a bone in his hand against Oregon State....will play with a cast. It's funny, Cushing has been hurt all 4 years. Fuck his brittle ass!

Taylor Mays has a chest bruise, was spitting up blood at Oregon State. Had to come out of game for awhile.

FUCK PETE CARROLL!!!!!! 4 years of MEDIOCRITY and counting....

 

[hm2.0]

I can't disagree w/ any of your picks.

I wanna take UCLA but I'm not sure their O is up to the task , then again Wazzu will surely screw up enough to give the Bruins plenty o' opportunities to score. I have Stanford.

Utah, well w/ the current no. not so sure. Utes are a complete squad even though Johnson isn't the same since his knee inj. - mobility is not the same. But coming off cloud nine and having to play in the clouds of SLC is a prescription for a major letdown for the Beavers.

gl, Conan.

 

[silver7]

Like The Ducks

Not as sold on Sanchez as everyone else, plus a ton of injuries & coaching edge. Also WASU is pitiful, see Bruins DD W going away. BOL

 

[Bocabill]

Really like your UCLA play BOL!!!

 

[doctorsarvis]

I think an OSU letdown at Utah is inevitable. It was such a monster upset vs. USC, they will not be able to be as jacked up on the road. Utah is looking to make its own statement on national TV. Beavs are obviously not going to sneak up on them. UT has a very balanced offense and stingy defense. I think it's a tough, tough spot for Oregon State and the Utes will cover the 10.5 or 11 pretty easily.

 

[Conan]

I can't disagree w/ any of your picks.

I wanna take UCLA but I'm not sure their O is up to the task , then again Wazzu will surely screw up enough to give the Bruins plenty o' opportunities to score. I have Stanford.

Utah, well w/ the current no. not so sure. Utes are a complete squad even though Johnson isn't the same since his knee inj. - mobility is not the same. But coming off cloud nine and having to play in the clouds of SLC is a prescription for a major letdown for the Beavers.

gl, Conan.

hm2.0

I've looked back over the past few years to see how the Beavers respond after a big win. It looks to me that pulling off a big upset win doesn't seem to affect their play the following week. BUT, where they play does seem to matter in a big way, especially if they play a quality opponent. It looks rather hopeless. To bet Utah looks a little risky because of the number, but much more of a risk to count on a close game as far as the Beavers are concerned. Revenge spot here too for the Utes. Oregon St. beat them in the opener last year but they were without Johnson in the first game @ Reser.

 

[Conan]

Year to date:
16-8 (67%) +11 units

Week 6 Recap:

Stanford+7.5/ND* ??? (I'm waiting on a better number in this one)
UCLA-16.5/WSU** (best bet)
ASU+9.5/CAL*
OR+16.5/USC*
AZ-19/UW*

I will probably bet Utah Thursday but it will be small.

 

[Conan]

:aktion033

Great minds think alike.

:toast:


PS... UW'S rush defense is atrocious. UCLA's OL and running game showed a pulse last week vs. Fresneck. Messed me up. So be it. They should make back vs the Huskies what they cost me last week. UW's defense is like a get well card for UCLA. I'm sure Norm Chow recognizes the opportunity.

ooops... my bad... just substitute WSU/Cougars in for UW/Huskies in the above. Washington teams look a little bit like bookends this year, though the edge goes to UW. Still a couple of really bad bad defenses.

 

[Cappin'Guru]

Couple line corrections. I just found a better deal at Carib on the Stanford and UCLA games... so here's the revised bets. I've placed them as follows:

Stanford+7.5/ND* ??? (I'm waiting on a better number in this one)
UCLA-16.5/WSU** (best bet)
ASU+9.5/CAL*
OR+16.5/USC*
AZ-19/UW*

Conan,

I think that UCLA will start clicking again this week versus a very soft WSU defense. This one could be considered done by the first quarter if Craft can handle himself with poise.

Notre Dame play scares me a bit. I think you are right in waiting to find a better number then +7.5. BOL to you this weekend! I was MIA this weekend, I just had too much stuff going on.

GL out there on the West Coast! :money8: