West Coast/Pac-10 Week 4

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I don't think I'm going to make any selections yet because I think I'm going to see some better numbers as the week unfolds.

BoiseSt.+12/Oregon -- What tells me what I want to know is the look on Chip Kelly's face when Roper went down. What also tells me something is how Bellotti let his offense run the ball in for the OT win instead of just kicking a chip shot through the uprights on the previous play. I will need to look more at Boise St. to make this play. My first impression though is that Oregon's defense will hold the game in check about as well as it's rushing game will hold Boise St. in check. It's not that I don't think Oregon won't win the game, it's whether or not they can pull away from the Broncos. I don't think they will but the line could be close to reality. HFA wins the game but by how much?

Zona/UCLA... the question is here who will bounce back? Who has the weapons to bounce back? UCLA's defense went absolutely south and their offense never came back from their last known migration south. Zona got tagged because they couldn't run the ball. Here, they may not need to. I still don't know how UCLA can score. It might be a good thing to see where Kahlil Bell is at healthwise.

Stanford/SJ St. Last year was a lesson for the Spartans who were very weak offensively and had several key defenisve players out with injuries. Not this time. SJ brings a much better balanced team into this game and a legitimate all WAC QB contender who can run the ball as well as any of them. Also, Kyle Reed has completed over 75% of his throws. I might see something a little better than 9.5 points if I wait. I'm counting on last year's score and the seniors at Stanford selling this side. SJ is laden with Sr's too and Yonus Davis runs just as well as anyone they got at Stanford. SJ brings as good a DL into this game as anything Stanford has seen. Remember they hung in there at Nebraska most of the game giving the Husker's rushers fits for 3 quarters before they blew it on mistakes.
 

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I guess to clarify,

Boise St. and SJ St. may be worth waiting on, but Zona needs to be bet soon. I already saw the line move to a point from a pick.

I'm on Zona before it runs much further.

Arizona -1/UCLA*
It will be a while before UCLA recovers from it's unexpected win vs. UT and the worst loss it's suffered since 1929 @ Utah.
 
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Like the Zona pick myself for the reasons you've stated amongst others. As long as it doesn't reach anywhere close to 3 I'll be awaiting any late news coming into the game.

GL Conan
 

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Boise St. has a keeper for the next 4 yrs. in QB Moore. But he is a RS frosh and they've kinda kept the wraps on the O for the first 2 games. Not sure how much of the playbook they'll open up. Good arm and some mobility.

gl.
 

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Boise St. has a keeper for the next 4 yrs. in QB Moore. But he is a RS frosh and they've kinda kept the wraps on the O for the first 2 games. Not sure how much of the playbook they'll open up. Good arm and some mobility.

gl.

Speaking of abbreviated playbooks, what about Chris Harper? Does he run almost all day? He may be a keeper at QB too, especially with a chance like this to establish himself. Can he? He might. But the way QB's work their way up the depth chart at Oregon gives me the creeps. By the time Roper gets off the DL, Harper could be the more experienced.

Seems to me that his presence should slow down their point production somewhat, but only to a point, until he has his playbook down. The kid can run with the best of them. I don't see Boise St. putting the "Maualuga" on Harper the way USC did to Pryor in the 2H. FWIW

So can Boise St. slow them down, can the Broncos keep up? Its a possibility I can't ignore. Depends a lot on the Ducks rushing game, Blount, JJ etc. (plus Harper and a few passes?) I'm going to chew on this one for a while.
 
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I'm warming up more to the idea that Boise will be able to keep themselves in this game with their defense. Certainly both teams bring better defenses into this game than we've expected from them in years past. The total also intrigues me... when one is posted somewhere. As Hm2 pointed out, Boise brings a pretty good QB into this game. Coming off a nice win vs BG adds to their credibility. I know the Ducks have a lot of great athletes playing for them. I still question whether or not that will be enough to put over 2 scores between them.
 

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I agree, Chip looked in shock, I think that is way too many points.

As far as UCLA goes, I don't think Bell makes a huge difference, they have no offensive line, Cowan and Olsen are probably thankful now they got hurt so they don't have to get pounded every week.
 

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Conan, I was looking at your thread and the Oregon game moved at the same time. Are they trying to tell us something? Good Luck
 

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May be I should just shut up.

:nohead:


I think the books are going to get a worse total to sell than the side.
Oregon can beat these guys by 10 points but anything beyond the mid 40's here is too big. I'm thinking 48-52 is what we will get.
 

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Thanks Pags. This will be a good year for SJ St.
Both sides of their lines are loaded nice.

I think I'm pretty well set. 2 Dogs and Zona, but I'd really like to see that total on the OR/Boise game.

I did manage to find 11.5 with Boise but I don't like the line. This game will be decided 10-13 points unless Boise makes a 4th Q run. I think they will be in it to the end -- within 2 scores. Oregon's QB situation is the compelling reason, but it could be a lot worse.
 

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One more interesting point about Oregon that's worth noting here...

Anyone who watched the Purdue game MUST have noticed their placekicker Matt Evenson, the guy who kept putting the kickoffs out of the end zone. He also nailed 4 FG's with confidence and ease.

This means Boise will have to drive the entire field after every field goal Evenson puts through the uprights. :>Grin>
 

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I completely agree with the Arizona play. I thought the line would be between 5-7 with AZ favored. Az choked last week , but they are nowhere near as bad off as UCLA is right now.
 

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One more interesting point about Oregon that's worth noting here...

Anyone who watched the Purdue game MUST have noticed their placekicker Matt Evenson, the guy who kept putting the kickoffs out of the end zone. He also nailed 4 FG's with confidence and ease.

This means Boise will have to drive the entire field after every field goal Evenson puts through the uprights. :>Grin>

Matt is a great story. Played ball locally in Portland at Franklin High and he was a walk-on at Oregon. Good track athlete in high school did the triple jump. Anyhow, he's improved every year and last year was a semi-finalist I believe for the Lou Groza or Gorza award. "best kicker award".

I play tennis with his dad and his dad is an Oregon State alumni. He wasn't thrilled about his boy going to UO, but OSU coaching staff didn't really give him the time of day to walk-on. Our loss (OSU), especially since we (not that I play or anything) don't have Serna now and our kicking game is in shambles. Punting for OSU is even worse, but don't get me started.
 

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that Evenson is by far the best kick-off kicker I've seen so far this year...he's just money...
 

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I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and make Zona a **.

Of all the totals plays I've seen, I like UCLA under the best.

Another WC team I'm considering betting this week would be Fresno St.
After hanging close to Wisky last week, it seems like they were swinging a lead bat, now comes Toledo.
 

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So far...

AZ-1/UCLA** (up to -4 as a regular pick)
SJSU+9.5/Stanford* (over a TD)
Boise St.+12/OR* (too risky <10)
UCLA/AZ U54*

You'd think that with all those new QB's playing at Autzen the defenses will have a day of it. Probably a good under play if mistakes and TO's don't get too wild.
 

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Recap through week 3:
11-5 total record (69%) +9 units

This week:
AZ-1/UCLA** (up to -4 as a regular pick)
SJSU+9.5/Stanford* (over a TD)
Boise St.+12/OR* (too risky <10, but I think Oregon will have to earn this win)
UCLA/AZ U54*

I'd also recommend a small shot on the SU win for SJSU if you have it to spare and would like a little extra entertainment. I don't count these plays as regular selections but I've got 1/2 unit on it.

BOL to everyone

PS... good luck on the ASU play UoD... I'd like to play it but I'd feel a little better about if if ASU didn't have a history of blowing it vs marquee opponents. They have yet to post a defining win under Erickson. Maybe this will be the week they do.
 

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