West Coast/Pac-10 Week 3

[Conan]

My instabet fingers were flying as fast as I could make them fly but I missed out on 1/2 point having seen Oregon -6 and USC -8.5 and lost the opportunity within 30 seconds of seeing those numbers before my very eyes...

Anyway, this is what I did manage to play right off the bat.
I may hit them again or I may change my mind later on but that's doubtful.

All are single unit plays for the time being. But the first one I might ramp up to ** would be SJ ST. @ home vs the team that nearly beat Notre Dame!!!! (but got beat by a D1-AA team the week before.)

Good luck you guys. I'll be back with some write-ups and/or talking points about most all of these plays.

Oregon -6.5/Purdue (**GOW potential)
Cal-13/Md (**GOW potential)
Baylor+2.5/WSU (@ Baylor -- huh???)
USC -9/OSU
SJ St.-6/SDSt. (**GOW potential)

Also:
Michigan -1 @ ND (out of my area of expertise but after what I saw LW...)

This info is right out of the chute. I'm sure things will change but if you are looking for something to bet now, I'd advise the 3 with GOW potential.

Just one note on SJ St.... they out statted Nebraska for most of the game and I know they put a scare into the Huskers. I was AMAZED at Kyle Reed's performance in his first start as QB ON THE ROAD in a very difficult place to play! SJ St's defense was all it was cracked up to be and SJ is very tough at home. Hell, SJ is a **.

 

[GoSooners]

I guarantee you San Jose played a better team Saturday than SDSU did.

 

[Conan]

Here's something that I just found on Maryland, Cal's opponent...

The Terps were the ACC's lone embarrassment on Saturday, as they fell to Middle Tennessee State. (Hey, at least UVA won). There were missed assignments, the quarterbacks couldn't hit open receivers, and the defense was on the field for too long because it couldn't stop the 5-yard short patterns. (Maryland's time of possession was 20:11, its lowest since 2002 against Notre Dame). Maryland has something to fix in every phase of the game. Kicker Obi Egekeze is now 0-for-4 on his field goals this season and has missed five straight dating back to the 2007 Emerald Bowl. The Terps finally have a 100-yard rusher and a backup and only carried the ball 19 times.

 

[liftnbet]

like most
gl..
already have teaser which i rarely do:
Georgia + .5
USC -3

 

[Conan]

Here's a nice little game flow summary I found about SJSt. Overall they impressed me. I watched them beating Nebraska for 3 quarters until the Huskers got a couple breaks which shifted the momentum.... I was on the edge of my seat watching an upset in the making until later in the 4th quarter. Yonus Davis ran over the Nebraska defense better than anything I saw the Huskers bring to the game among other things -- like a very good defense.


Granted, this is not an elite Cornhuskers team, but if the Spartans play 60 minutes against their league foes the way they played 45 minutes against Nebraska, they'll be a factor in the Western Athletic Conference race.
Aided by a favorable start time — the 9:30 a.m. kickoff coincided with their morning practices — they sacked quarterback Joe Ganz twice on Nebraska's opening drive. Clinically efficient behind Reed and tailback Yonus Davis, the Spartans then covered 59 yards in five plays for a touchdown.
"We played off that momentum for three quarters," receiver Kevin Jurovich said.
The Spartans discovered their running game (42 yards against Davis, 137 against Nebraska). Reed was on target with his short- and middle-distance passes. The offensive line protected Reed and opened running lanes.
The SJSU defense was even better. Using their speed advantage, especially on the ends, the Spartans pressured Ganz, contained the Huskers ground game (99 yards) and allowed only two long touchdown drives.
And nobody in blue and gold appeared flustered by the opponent, the setting or the sea of red in the stands.
"It was a little louder,'' Jurovich said, "but you just get in a zone and play football.''
All that was enough to get SJSU in range of the upset. But Reed's injury, missed opportunities and a handful of mistakes were the difference.
The Cornhuskers returned an interception 49 yards for one touchdown and the fourth-quarter kickoff for another.

 

[BigM+]

love love love the cal pick

i cant believe that spread

 

[Conan]

love love love the cal pick

i cant believe that spread

Note the time on my first post. It was within 20 minutes of the lines going up. I'd bet this one all the way up to 20... maybe more.

 

[BigM+]

yea i wasnt calling you out im just saying, hell of a fucking spread, phenomenal value for anything under 17, if not 20

 

[Railbird]

a homecoming for many sdsu players, lindsey impressive for sdsu. dont underrate cal poly.

 

[Railbird]

Conan,

You bring up Cal Poly, but dont forget 1AA" UCDavis was life and death with Jose in week 1. Im on the other side in case your interested.

 

[Conan]

Not sure what you meant by "homecoming" for SDSU players Railbird.
Are you saying that a lot of SDSU's depth chart consists of bay area recruits?
The game is @ SJ. I think they usually play much tougher at home.

Funny that I posted the question... Who's better, Cal Poly SLO or Notre Dame in the Notre Dame thread I started. I saw the same question tossed around in some editorial columns yesterday. I had no idea.

Also, did you happen to catch Kyle Reed's play in the Nebraska game Saturday? Blew my mind. He brings the epitome of a running QB threat to the Spartan offense. His passing was also on target. Impressive. Not saying he won't have a 2nd game jinx, which is possible. But that's an unknown. Keep in mind his stats in the Neb. game were abbreviated because he got knocked out with a concussion in the 3rd Q. The SJ defense also looked solid. Their DL handled Nebraska's offense with ease all game. I don't mean to sound arrogant, but I expected it.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

I really like Oregon this week...Could be a big one for me....

 

[Conan]

I'm tempted to add Arizona-10/NM. Not sure if I believe all the hype about NM... first real test for the Wildcats etc. etc. blah blah... Lobos haven't gotten off to much of a start so far. OK they beat AZ last year. That means it's payback time. (on the road) AZ D has checked out OK thus far. Tuitama has been looking great. Offense is looking balanced and live as expected.
NM avg. 13 ppg. Tends to turn the ball over a lot.
AZ 56 ppg so far. Why stop there?
10 points seems reasonable to me.

ASU-22/UNLV... maybe I feel a little different about the Devils this week. 22 is the same line that opened vs Stanford. Carpenter dispatched with that personally as I thought he would. UNLV is probably a similar grade (or less) opponent as Stanford, but I sense a little bit of desert rivalry here. I know that Phoenix folks don't think much of Las Vegas, there being some type of posturing between them in ways other than football, and I think UNLV will come wearing its best game face. Short trip over there etc. takes a lot of the travel aspect out of this. But to ignore the look-ahead factor would be making a big mistake regardless of what Dennis Erickson says. As a matter of fact, between ASU's Pac-10 opener last week and UGA next week, that lands the Rebels in a sandwich game. So it's UNLV or no play at all.

 

[PBRMeASAP]

I attend Purdue and was at the Northern Colorado game this past weekend. We usually destroy these cupcake teams and then...well everybody knows how Purdue football goes. Do not let the 42-10 score fool you. The NC QB had all day to throw and we missed a ton of tackles. Had it not been for horrible punting and a couple of blocked punts this game is way closer than this. It was our first game of the year but NC is not even a good AA team. I hate to bet against my Boilers, but this line seems like free money to me. Good luck.

 

[Conan]

I really like Oregon this week...Could be a big one for me....

PP. In one of my posts that died in the database crash, I had said to UoD that I figured it would take the CFB nation possibly as much as 1/2 a season to come to grips with Oregon's offense this year. I know that there are a few on this board that already appreciate what Chip Kelly has done and IS DOING but when you see an opening line UNDER a TD for Oregon vs an opponent like Purdue, you know a lot of people just don't get it.

 

[FairWarning]

Conan, why would you lay points with Michigan vs ND? You may have seen ND last week, but I have seen Michigan twice now. I'll back the home team who can move the ball revenging a 38-0 game (which should have been worse but Carr was too classy). That was also ND's first game, last Saturday.

 

[hanabada]

ASU-22/UNLV... maybe I feel a little different about the Devils this week. 22 is the same line that opened vs Stanford. Carpenter dispatched with that personally as I thought he would. UNLV is probably a similar grade (or less) opponent as Stanford, but I sense a little bit of desert rivalry here. I know that Phoenix folks don't think much of Las Vegas, there being some type of posturing between them in ways other than football, and I think UNLV will come wearing its best game face. Short trip over there etc. takes a lot of the travel aspect out of this. But to ignore the look-ahead factor would be making a big mistake regardless of what Dennis Erickson says. As a matter of fact, between ASU's Pac-10 opener last week and UGA next week, that lands the Rebels in a sandwich game. So it's UNLV or no play at all.

I think playing UNLV in the first half is a better choice, UNLV tends to have the 3rd quarter blues and in game 1 let Utah St. back in, and let Utah get away. Coach Sanfords tends to play to cover and get the back door rubbish points. This was evident last year, when the game was already decided and he went for 2 and getting the cover. Currently leaning to UNLV, but will wait for friday to decide.

 

[FairWarning]

I attend Purdue and was at the Northern Colorado game this past weekend. We usually destroy these cupcake teams and then...well everybody knows how Purdue football goes. Do not let the 42-10 score fool you. The NC QB had all day to throw and we missed a ton of tackles. Had it not been for horrible punting and a couple of blocked punts this game is way closer than this. It was our first game of the year but NC is not even a good AA team. I hate to bet against my Boilers, but this line seems like free money to me. Good luck.

Nice info here.

 

[Conan]

Conan, why would you lay points with Michigan vs ND? You may have seen ND last week, but I have seen Michigan twice now. I'll back the home team who can move the ball revenging a 38-0 game (which should have been worse but Carr was too classy). That was also ND's first game, last Saturday.

Fairwarning. I was watching the SDSU/ND game off and on and for a time I was really rooting for the Aztecs. They seem to come up with one quality performance every year out on the road vs an opponent they won't beat and that's when they play their best game.

For a good portion of the game when SD was in it, they appeared to be in control. Charlie W was caught on camera a few times with that sh*t eatin' worried look you've seen before and I thought he might just be done for. Had he lost the game, all of CFB would start wondering again if ND made a huge mistake for ever hiring him. I still think that might prove to be true. Their performance last week just plain sucked. If that's the way they are going to play, they won't get by either Mich team this season.

Actually when I checked my betting ticket the line was at -1. I guess that makes 3 games that changed within 30 seconds as I was making my wagers. It's a PK now so apparently I jumped a little too soon, but it's still basically a SU winner bet.

I'm no B-10 or ND expert but I know what I saw in that SD St. game. SD is not a good team. This much I can tell you. And like I said, I've seen that look on CW's face before. I think we will be seeing it again, perhaps more often than people think at this point in the season.

RR's going to come through sooner or later. This seems like as good a time as any. ND's defense is terrible and I doubt they will be able to deal with RR's spread too well, even at this early stage of his program. Other than that, I'd bring this up in a B-10 thread or maybe there's a ND homie around here that's pretty well read and caught up on the Irish, hopefully someone who doesn't think with his heart.

For all the ND hype I've been hearing about, how much more improved they will be this season, blah blah blah, I've seen absolutely nothing thus far to indicate it will happen. They looked just as bad as ever in their struggle in their own house trying to beat SD St. who is a doormat in the MWC.

Yes this is a ND fade.

 

[Conan]

I attend Purdue and was at the Northern Colorado game this past weekend. We usually destroy these cupcake teams and then...well everybody knows how Purdue football goes. Do not let the 42-10 score fool you. The NC QB had all day to throw and we missed a ton of tackles. Had it not been for horrible punting and a couple of blocked punts this game is way closer than this. It was our first game of the year but NC is not even a good AA team. I hate to bet against my Boilers, but this line seems like free money to me. Good luck.

I appreciate the input PBRMeASAP.
Yeah. I think I'll bump Oregon up a unit again this week.
The Ducks get off on these national TV games, prestige etc.
Bellotti's pulling out all the stops widening his recruiting base.

So it's Oregon-6.5/Purdue*
And it's Oregon-7/Purdue*

Oregon **