West Coast/Pac-10 Week 15

Conan · Dec 2, 2008

Season to date:
48-29 (62%) + 24.5 units

Not much going on this week for me.

It's tough winning at a 62% clip with 1/6 as many games to pick from compared to people who follow all of CFB. I'm glad theres's something that pops out and is worth betting. The WAC is done except for Hawaii. MWC too. I might want to play on Hawaii but I'll make up my mind a little later.

For now:

USC/UCLA U47.5**(best bet)
Both teams sport defenses that are better than their offenses
UA-10/ASU*
ASU is toast, has been most of the year
Cal-34/UW*
I think that the fade UW bandwagon is good for one more.

Addict101 · Dec 2, 2008

Like the under play, I'd be stunned if UCLA scored more than 10 on SC.

TOOTIGHT · Dec 2, 2008

I just worry about USC having a short field all day and pushing it over. Their defense is capable of putting up 14 to 21 points alone. Not sure about this one but I'm def. not on the other side. GL Conan!!

Conan · Dec 2, 2008

TOOTIGHT said:
I just worry about USC having a short field all day and pushing it over. Their defense is capable of putting up 14 to 21 points alone. Not sure about this one but I'm def. not on the other side. GL Conan!!

I see where you are coming from tootight, but you can't really count on Craft to throw as many pick 6's as he has the last 2 games in a row. USC believe it or not is not one of the best rushing the passer teams. Protection will be high on Norm Chow's list of to-do's this week. Count on it. Other than that, USC won't be rolling up the points on big plays. That's not whay they do. That's also not what UCLA's defense is known for.

I'm not saying that USC won't cover, but it won't be by much because it doesn't have to be. On the other hand, UCLA might cover here but I'm just not sure they can score enough to do so especially if USC's defense does manage to score. But any way you look at it, UCLA won't put up many points. 10 would be a banner performance but I don't think that will happen. Under is the play.

Right-Side · Dec 2, 2008

I highly doubt UCLA will score more than 7. There short inefficient passing game will be smashed by quickness of USC linebacking core. You have been Pac-10 money all year. I wish you the best of luck this week. RS

AlwaysKeen · Dec 3, 2008

GL conan...

Conan · Dec 3, 2008

Thanks guys for your support.

There is one thing I want to clarify about the under play that I think needs a little more explanation...

UCLA's D will bring their A-game. They are a force to consider with Walker running the show. I believe that they will hold USC's offense to the high 20's possibly low 30's at best.

On the other hand, UCLA's offense is terribly weak, especially their OL. There's a good chance they will get shut out, but scoring more than 7 points is going to be very tough for them. They may never even see the end zone. That seems likely.

So the point is, between UCLA's defense which is strong and should slow down USC's scoring, and their offense which is weak and cannot score, that leaves plenty of wiggle room for Craft to make more of the same mistakes and even hand over a TD or 2 to USC's defense in this game... and still stay under.

coitus_maximus · Dec 3, 2008

I am a bit worried that since neither team has anything to play
for whether the +33 to UCLA may be a bit too much. I think the spread may be very tight. Could see it as 42-10 USC or
a bit over.

I am staying away

Conan · Dec 3, 2008

coitus_maximus said:
I am a bit worried that since neither team has anything to play
for whether the +33 to UCLA may be a bit too much. I think the spread may be very tight. Could see it as 42-10 USC or
a bit over.

I am staying away

My feeling on the side here is that UCLA's D will have some success holding the Trojans back. USC's offense scoring 30's seems iffy to me. And then even if UCLA gets shut out, Craft would need to throw a few untimely picks for USC to cover. Not saying it can't happen, but I find it a difficult thing to count on, even with Craft's history. I agree that the line is very tight.

35-6 or 38-6 is my prediction about as close as I can figure. (7 points for USC's defense)

Conan · Dec 4, 2008

Here's how the UCLA/USC game sets up.

Here's the scenario...

One team playing with nothing to lose, a pretty good defense but a very young and inexperienced OL that could also use a shot of talent. However their defense is pretty strong in all aspects of the game and their D's brain trust is HC material. I have a hunch that they will treat this game like their bowl game because there will be no post season for them and it is also their biggest rivalry game of the year. Maybe UCLA comes up short, and maybe their QB will throw away a TD or 2 to USC, but their defense will be playing its heart out.

The other team, USC stands to gain nothing other than to cinch their expected Rose Bowl berth with a win. No chance at picking up BCS points or poll ranking no matter how they look winning. They too bring a considerable defensive game. However, they will not be approaching this game feeling the same kind of excitement that UCLA does because they largely see this game as a job to get done and that' largely the extent of their motivation. No biggie. Fine.

No way do I see Sanchez and the USC offense marching up and down the field at will nor scoring points at will. That isn't to say that they can't put up 4 or 5 TD's during the course of the game, but I think 3 or 4 is more realistic -- but perhaps UCLA's defense will have a good day and USC's scoring will be limited to a point. It's been done before.

Bottom line, I think the spread could be rather rich... save for the "POSSIBILITY" that UCLA's QB Craft will provide USC 14 points or so by throwing a couple or few bonehead picks. I realize that's a distinct possibility, but in this game, I think he will play more focused as will the rest of his teammates. I think UCLA, as a team, will show up and play more focused in this game than any other game this season except for perhaps week 1 vs TN.

They could still get blown out, but I would expect to see a somewhat controlled sort of blow out. The reason why is because both teams playing their A game means you will see a lot more defense than offense... because that's what both teams do.

Now let all that random stuff happen. Make way for the intangibles to occur. Let the penalties, turnovers and points come or be denied. I still see the underlying factors in this game being played out the way I explained it. Throw in a little too much sloppiness and USC may indeed get the cover. But that's what will have to happen, and it will take lots of it for USC to both cover and put the total over 47.5. UCLA won't be chipping in their share of points. That is perhaps the one thing about this game that is a near certainty.

Hmmmm.... maybe a team total under bet? I hadn't thought of that 'til now.

YourAllAmerican · Dec 4, 2008

Conan said:
Hmmmm.... maybe a team total under bet? I hadn't thought of that 'til now.

I've been waiting to see a UCLA TT ever since I started looking at this game. The Under there may very well be my favorite angle.

It would take some guts to bet it, though. It may come in between 7.5 and 9.5, meaning all it could take is a lucky kickoff return to screw the bet. I still think it's worth a long, hard look.

Mr.Cover123 · Dec 4, 2008

I love the USC under too. As long as USC doesn't score 40 it should hit easily.

UCLA TT is set at 7.

Conan · Dec 4, 2008

Mr.Cover123 said:
I love the USC under too. As long as USC doesn't score 40 it should hit easily.

UCLA TT is set at 7.

7? I'd buy 1/2 point to insure getting paid but it's not worth it. However I might consider +350 on a shutout... for value sake. There might be an adjusted line out there to make a bet like that. I'd be checking the game props closely. Something might come up.

VoiceofReason101 · Dec 4, 2008

You must be one happy camper.

Conan · Dec 4, 2008

I don't get it VOR... are you talking about me being overjoyed to see Sarkisian leave USC? Or maybe you were being sarcastic about me being so "thrilled" at the tight TT on UCLA. I usually just take what the board gives me, but I think there might be a prop or two in this game that turn out to be gimme's. The fact is that for the past couple of weeks, the lines have been pretty tight and won't let up until bowl season, if we are fortunate.

We're only talking 2 weeks away from now, but next week should be a bye for just about everyone. I'm dying to see the line in the Holiday Bowl. I believe we will get Texas Tech vs Oregon... your typical 100 point shootout unless it's Mizzou/Oregon in which case it will be your typical 80 point shootout.

VoiceofReason101 · Dec 4, 2008

Conan said:
I don't get it VOR... are you talking about me being overjoyed to see Sarkisian leave USC? Or maybe you were being sarcastic about me being so "thrilled" at the tight TT on UCLA. I usually just take what the board gives me, but I think there might be a prop or two in this game that turn out to be gimme's. The fact is that for the past couple of weeks, the lines have been pretty tight and won't let up until bowl season, if we are fortunate.

We're only talking 2 weeks away from now, but next week should be a bye for just about everyone. I'm dying to see the line in the Holiday Bowl. I believe we will get Texas Tech vs Oregon... your typical 100 point shootout unless it's Mizzou/Oregon in which case it will be your typical 80 point shootout.

Steve Sarkisian's departure would be the one. Recall us talking about it a few weeks ago. Haven't done any research on it dude so wanted to get your thoughts on likely candidates for the job?

Are you excited? Just curious

I agree wholeheartedly Conan, lines have been tighter than a virgins rectum. With value being one of the main factors in my system I can't find anything worth hammering (so I instead turn to my gf as a consolation prize)

I haven't played a total all year dude but I find them fascinating and this is one that should really capture the imagination. I mean they can put up 80 and people will still bet the over.

Nice looking card this week bud wish you nothing but the best. :103631605

fastfreddy · Dec 5, 2008

I really think USC skunks the Bruins Sat. Pathetic offense vs stifling defense = USC 41-0.

fastfreddy · Dec 5, 2008

It seems the colege football season just flies by. Thanks for the weekly writeups and GL the rest of the way. freddy

gmoney72 · Dec 5, 2008

<TABLE class="tablehead teamTop colOne" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead><TD width="15%">DATE
</TD><TD width="45%">OPPONENT</TD><TD width="20%" align=middle>W-L (CONF)</TD><TD width="20%" align=right>RESULT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>9/01</TD><TD align=left>No. 18 Tennessee</TD><TD align=middle>1-0 (0-0)</TD><TD align=right>W 27-24 OT</TD><TR class=evenrow><TD>9/13</TD><TD align=left>@ No. 18 Brigham Young</TD><TD align=middle>1-1 (0-0)</TD><TD align=right>L 59-0</TD><TR class=oddrow><TD>9/20</TD><TD align=left>Arizona</TD><TD align=middle>1-2 (0-1)</TD><TD align=right>L 31-10</TD><TR class=evenrow><TD>9/27</TD><TD align=left>No. 25 Fresno State</TD><TD align=middle>1-3 (0-1)</TD><TD align=right>L 36-31</TD><TR class=oddrow><TD>10/04</TD><TD align=left>Washington State</TD><TD align=middle>2-3 (1-1)</TD><TD align=right>W 28-3</TD><TR class=evenrow><TD>10/11</TD><TD align=left>@ Oregon</TD><TD align=middle>2-4 (1-2)</TD><TD align=right>L 31-24</TD><TR class=oddrow><TD>10/18</TD><TD align=left>Stanford</TD><TD align=middle>3-4 (2-2)</TD><TD align=right>W 23-20</TD><TR class=evenrow><TD>10/25</TD><TD align=left>@ California</TD><TD align=middle>3-5 (2-3)</TD><TD align=right>L 41-20</TD><TR class=oddrow><TD>11/08</TD><TD align=left>Oregon State</TD><TD align=middle>3-6 (2-4)</TD><TD align=right>L 34-6</TD><TR class=evenrow><TD>11/15</TD><TD align=left>@ Washington</TD><TD align=middle>4-6 (3-4)</TD><TD align=right>W 27-7</TD><TR class=oddrow><TD>11/28</TD><TD align=left>@ Arizona State</TD><TD align=middle>4-7 (3-5)</TD><TD align=right>L 34-9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So You think USC will only score how many points? Oregon State score 34 on UCLA, Cal 41, AS 34, Oregon 31, Fresno 36, BYU 59 and Tenn 24. Cmon now. Do You remember What Tennessee was doing on defense at UCLA in that game. I think they intercept UCLA in this game at least 5 times or more. USC scores 50 on UCLA here. It's going to get UGLY. Rivalry Rivalry, blah blah blah. UF/FSU was a rivalry that turned ugly last week too. I would be careful playing under that total in this game.

douglas · Dec 5, 2008

A quick thanks for all your work with this conference ....
As I have said before .....many a Saturday night / late afternoon when a winner is needed .......your a must read ......
Bol the rest of the way .
Douglas