West Coast/Pac-10 Week 14

[Conan]

I had to jump on all 3 of these because I think every one will get bet up (if the early money is right.)

Boise St.-18.5/Fresno St.**(best bet)
A major difference in class here. No chance for the Bulldogs on smurf turf. Should be a blowout. Boise may want to score style points to give their BCS hopes a lift. But otherwise they should whup the disappointing Bulldogs up and down the field all day.

ASU-10/UCLA*
Some people here might doubt ASU's heart but UCLA is one godawful road team. Carpenter should pick apart UCLA's terrible pass D. They'll be lucky to sack Carpenter more than once in this game.

OSU-3/Oregon*
Why quit now when the Beavers are on a roll? The roses are 60 minutes of football away from becoming a reality. Canfield has been impressive and the Beaver offensive arsenal is impressive too. I think their defense will also put on another show. 22 guys that play with a lot of heart. The points are right. Home field gets it done.

 

[FairWarning]

No thoughts on ND-USC?

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

I agree with you on Boise State & Arizona. I think Oregon beats them outright.

 

[Conan]

No thoughts on ND-USC?

I'd probably take USC since Notre Dame will be further exposed... or should I say Weiss will be. I don't think this one will move a lot... what is it? 28.5 now? It probably wouldn't matter if it went to 30. But who knows what those Irish bettors are liable to do. (And I'm certainly not referring to the guys throwing snow balls at the Notre Dame bench.) I'm leaning on USC. They may not consider Notre Dame much to get up for. That's my only concern here. I'll hang back for a few days unless the line starts to take off against me.

 

[Conan]

I agree with you on Boise State & Arizona. I think Oregon beats them outright.

I was thinking about Oregon's advatages in this game, only the venue seems to their disadvantage. But I really like the heart the Beavers have shown and it won't just go away. It will be interesting to see what kind of offense Langsdorf comes up with here. At first glance, I'd say Canfield's arm beats Oregon's iffy secondary. If their defense can hold, the Beavers will take this one. Also, if McCants shows the same kind of effort and spirit he showed glimpses of, Quizz can take a break. (Interesting comparison between McCants and Blount.) Jeremy Francis can hit the holes too so it's not like the Beavers are without a running game even if Quizz can't play. I don't see the Ducks defense holding them back enough in this game. On the other hand, the Beaver defense will show up here and play well. But then again it's the CW so anything's possible.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

I'd probably take USC since Notre Dame will be further exposed... or should I say Weiss will be. I don't think this one will move a lot... what is it? 28.5 now? It probably wouldn't matter if it went to 30. But who knows what those Irish bettors are liable to do. (And I'm certainly not referring to the guys throwing snow balls at the Notre Dame bench.) I'm leaning on USC. They may not consider Notre Dame much to get up for. That's my only concern here. I'll hang back for a few days unless the line starts to take off against me.

If they just show up they should cover this #. I took them at the opening # of 27. I see it is up to 29 at Pinnacle.

 

[Conan]

If they just show up they should cover this #. I took them at the opening # of 27. I see it is up to 29 at Pinnacle.

OK I think you're right about this.

I found USC-28/ND so I'll add that for a *. These TV road games seem to be enough to get USC's juices flowing.

Here's the updated picks:

Boise St.-18.5/Fresno St.**(best bet)
ASU-10/UCLA*
OSU-3/Oregon*
USC-28/ND*

 

[FairWarning]

I'd probably take USC since Notre Dame will be further exposed... or should I say Weiss will be. I don't think this one will move a lot... what is it? 28.5 now? It probably wouldn't matter if it went to 30. But who knows what those Irish bettors are liable to do. (And I'm certainly not referring to the guys throwing snow balls at the Notre Dame bench.) I'm leaning on USC. They may not consider Notre Dame much to get up for. That's my only concern here. I'll hang back for a few days unless the line starts to take off against me.

Local take from the ND view. They put a lot into the Syracuse game for the seniors. ND is having problems scoring now, no surprise since they cannot run at all. Not sure they will respond anymore to him. One thing I find disturbing is they haven't gotten any better since about Week 5, nor do they make any halftime adjustments. The wolves are really starting to howl now. I think he will survive the season, mainly because of contract is roughly $20 mil. He did upgrade the talent, but not a good college in-game coach. USC has spanked them bad two times in a row and can name this score. Looking at 49-13 USC.

 

[Conan]

Local take from the ND view. They put a lot into the Syracuse game for the seniors. ND is having problems scoring now, no surprise since they cannot run at all. Not sure they will respond anymore to him. One thing I find disturbing is they haven't gotten any better since about Week 5, nor do they make any halftime adjustments. The wolves are really starting to howl now. I think he will survive the season, mainly because of contract is roughly $20 mil. He did upgrade the talent, but not a good college in-game coach. USC has spanked them bad two times in a row and can name this score. Looking at 49-13 USC.

That's about what I'm thinking here. This isn't a conference showdown with all that familiarity and desire to upset. It's another chance for the Trojans to serve notice on the country that they can go anyplace anytime and put a public whupass on TV. I'm thinking a blowout too. 13 points is very generous of you Fairwarning.

 

[hippieki11er]

The game's at the Coliseum Conan.

 

[Conan]

The game's at the Coliseum Conan.

OK my bad. I'm not sure if that's for better or worse. USC plays well on the road vs these nonconf teams. But then again, being at the coliseum is a certain death warrant for just about anybody. Given that the Irish are a perennial rival, that might be enough to spark the Trojans, especially since ABC picked up the game for all to see. I think Clausen is in for a very bad day.

Your thoughts HK?

 

[hippieki11er]

Meh, not much to say really. I hate the 'SC offense as you know, oddly enough it seems to sputter even more at home, and the line's inflated a bit. I imagine ND will play better than they did against Syracuse and 'SC is going nowhere fast in the BCS. Simply no luster to this game, I'd pass. That being said, I'd be very surprised if ND scored more than 14-17 points. Can 'SC score enough is always the question.

I wouldn't touch the Civil War either, but you're all in with OSU it seems, so why not. Might as well make it all or nothing emotionally.

 

[Conan]

Meh, not much to say really. I hate the 'SC offense as you know, oddly enough it seems to sputter even more at home, and the line's inflated a bit. I imagine ND will play better than they did against Syracuse and 'SC is going nowhere fast in the BCS. Simply no luster to this game, I'd pass. That being said, I'd be very surprised if ND scored more than 14-17 points. Can 'SC score enough is always the question.

I wouldn't touch the Civil War either, but you're all in with OSU it seems, so why not. Might as well make it all or nothing emotionally.

As far as USC goes, they'll put up some points but it's not a play it safe situation as in most conference games. I think 14-17 is a bit on the generous side for USC's defense to give up. Other than that, I don't see much motivation personally, but then it is a non-conf opponent so the chances of USC putting on a show are better.

As far as Oregon St. goes, let me say this. I'm an Oregon neutral person because I always wish the best for both teams. BUT, in this situation, the Beavers stand to gain much more with a win than the Ducks do so that tips the scales for me in this spot. I also think the Beavers have been way more consistent than the Ducks have. That plus HFA is enough for me to make a wager albeit a normal one without much fanfare. The more success for the one or the other, the better I like it. If the Ducks were ranked #2 and playing for a NC spot, you know who I would like to see take this game. Outside of that, my mind tells me that the Beavers are on a mission now and playing their game is how it will get done. I don't think the Rose Bowl is their primary purpose here, not in the Civil War. They will come out focused. And so will the Ducks. It will boil down to a matter of willpower and that's where HFA turns out to be a big help. That 12th player is pretty good. Yeap.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL conan...

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I'm very much liking Hawaii over Washington State if I can get it at -28. The pitiful Coogs get their big win over an even more pitiful in-state rival then wrap up the miserable season with a vacation to the islands. I can't imagine going out strong is much on their minds.

 

[Conan]

I'm very much liking Hawaii over Washington State if I can get it at -28. The pitiful Coogs get their big win over an even more pitiful in-state rival then wrap up the miserable season with a vacation to the islands. I can't imagine going out strong is much on their minds.

All I can give you is a lean or an opinion. WSU's play may be a little better after the Apple Cup win. All it would take is a TD and FG and that could easily be enough for a backdoor cover. I don't think Hawaii can just name their score because they are not very good. As a matter of fact, their defense is better than their offense this year and that should tell you something. But they do look better now than earlier this year. I lean Hawaii's way but it's expensive. Good luck with a WSU play but I'm far from sold on them too.

I hope they don't party too much over there. It will be 82 degrees over there (as always) and that will be weird for a bunch of guys from the Palouse. On the other hand, the Rainbow Warriors do a sorta funny looking war dance on the field before every game and that don't mean shit.

 

[UoweDucks]

Conan,
You are having a terrific year. Congrats.

To play devils advocate here there are a couple of things that I would mention about the CW.

• Belloti is 14-2 coming off of BYE week.The last BYE week this year Oregon went down to ASU and absolutely blew the doors off of the devils. 54-20. That is the same devil team that OSU struggled to beat by 2 points at home 3 weeks ago (off of a bye week no less).
• Oregon is 100% healthy going into this game and 2 of OSU's best playmakers are questionable.

And on Jaquizz. He has a 2nd degree sprain in his shoulder which indicates slight tearing. If he does in fact play (I do not think he will) this has to affect him and I doubt that he will be sent up the gut where he has been so succesfull this year.

Lastly I attended a CW where had Oregon won they would have been in the RB. They were the team of destiny and Harrington ( a 2 year starter at the time) who had been automatic that year threw 5 picks in a loss. Did the pressure of the situation get to him? Absolutely.

 

[Conan]

Conan,
You are having a terrific year. Congrats.

To play devils advocate here there are a couple of things that I would mention about the CW.

• Belloti is 14-2 coming off of BYE week.The last BYE week this year Oregon went down to ASU and absolutely blew the doors off of the devils. 54-20. That is the same devil team that OSU struggled to beat by 2 points at home 3 weeks ago (off of a bye week no less).
• Oregon is 100% healthy going into this game and 2 of OSU's best playmakers are questionable.

And on Jaquizz. He has a 2nd degree sprain in his shoulder which indicates slight tearing. If he does in fact play (I do not think he will) this has to affect him and I doubt that he will be sent up the gut where he has been so succesfull this year.

Lastly I attended a CW where had Oregon won they would have been in the RB. They were the team of destiny and Harrington ( a 2 year starter at the time) who had been automatic that year threw 5 picks in a loss. Did the pressure of the situation get to him? Absolutely.

Points well taken Ducks.
If this game was being played at Autzen, that might be too much this year for the fledgling Beavers to overcome. There are opposing trends all working against each other here. I'm sure you know what HFA has meant in this series (save for last season.) The spoiler role scares me a little, but I don't think that turnovers will be as radical as they were in the Oregon loss that you mentioned. Oregon will need a stellar game from their DB's which hasn't happened often this season. I would have thought differently but unfortunately, it boils down to Aliotti vs Banker here and that might prove to be the difference in this game. I wish Bellotti would just put the guy out to pasture. He's cost them a lot over the past decade and nobody seems to acknowledge that outside of the message boards.

 

[nd2000]

I have watched every single snap of ND football this year unfortunately. They are not very good, but they could easily have a much better record than they do. They have blown several leads late, so 6-5 is about as bad as they could be. They have played two Pac-10 opponents. They decimated Washington, and pushed Stanford around too. Nothing to brag about obviously, but the Irish are much better than last year's squad.

The ND defense is fairly competent. They are extremely aggressive with their blitz packages under Tenuta. I think their defense is good enough to cover this huge spread. Their offense will struggle mightily, but they do have some good athletes at the skill positions, so 10 points is probably a good estimate.

Trojans win 35-10, but don't cover the number.

 

[GoSooners]

Conan...I'm pulling for the Beavers this week, but I still get that funny feeling that USC will be back in the Rose Bowl this year..I hope I'm wrong...By the way, your having a fantastic year. Keep up the good work. :toast: