West Coast/Pac-10 Week 11

[Conan]

Last week 2-3 (-2 Units)
Season: 32-20 (62%) + 16.5 units


3 things happened last week that hurt me. Both Oregon QB's went down. Moevao getting hurt in the first half cost me and overwhelmingly sloppy play by both teams on the field threw a monkey wrench into the Cal/Oregon game. Sorry Hippiekiller, Roper is nobody's hero. Maybe in a few weeks if he gets the cobwebs out but nowhere near accurate enough today and he can't move with the ball in his hands nearly as well as Masoli... but will it matter? Stanford covered the 53 points by themselves vs WSU. I wouldn't have played over in that game if I bet it 25 times.

This week I'm loaded with what appear to be strong plays. I was caught out late in a rain storm yesterday so that explains the late post this week.

Here we go:

Utah +2.5/TCU*
Rare opportunity to bet Utah as a home dog. I couldn't resist.
Fresno St. -2/NV*
Lots of value here because of Fresno's loss to LA Tech last Saturday. They are much tougher at home.
Boise St. -31.5/UTSU*
Boise's on a roll. No way the Aggies can keep up here. Big number but I see little if any scoring by UTSU. The Broncos will not have a problem marching through this opponent on the smurf turf. Points should be plentiful for the Broncos in this one.
SJSU-8.5/LA Tech*
The Bulldogs are liable to have a let down after last week's big win over Fresno. SJSU has been a covering machine at home (except for 2 weeks ago vs Boise). La Tech is a much easier team for the Spartans to own at home. Kyle Reed could have a breakout game here.
Arizona -39/WSU*
Nothing much to say that hasn't already been said.
ASU-14/UW*
Nothing much to say that hasn't already been said.

However note the difference according to the linemaker in home venues between the Washington teams. Perhaps UW has a little more backbone left than the Coogs. Can't wait for the (rotten) Apple Cup. Promses to be a real disaster for someone!

Oregon St.-7/UCLA*
This play goes only if Moevao plays. If Canfield starts, I'd be tempted to go the other way. It will take a day or 2 for things to settle out.

 

[Conan]

I am also tempted to take the 17.5 USC/Cal at the coliseum. At first glance, Cal with so many points seems like the obvious play. They really think they are in this conference battle and can win it. But when I think about their sloppy play vs Oregon last week, there will be no room for the same vs USC's defense. USC might cover this one with their defense on the field if the Bears perform the same way. 5 TO's here will result in a route.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Washington has absolutely no business losing to Washington State this year. I can say from watching both teams play multiple times that Washington looks to be trying but are outmatched & lacking due to missing Jake. Washington State looks like they gave in ages ago.

GL this week

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL this week conan...

 

[nd2000]

I'd really like to take CAL, but my gut feeling is telling me that SC will blow them out just like every other opponent that enters the LA Coliseum. USC still looking for BCS style points too.

 

[Conan]

So anyways fellas, the thought occurs to me why only 39 points in the AZ/WSU game? Maybe to look a little tougher on the Cats than the Trojans? But in the end, what even Stanford did to WSU justifies a bet on UA doing exactly the same thing here. Venue makes little difference at all.

I really think a lot of WSU players are playing football just to get laid. Probably a lot of self respecting athlete walkons at WSU who could get some playing time won't go near this team this year. I remember WSU getting only 7 points therebouts when they went to play at Baylor in W3. The B-12 officianados here didn't understand what we meant when we said WSU was plain lousey. Baylor being a traditional floormat in the B-12 was one concern on their minds... but WSU is "special." Now they know. Everyone knows. But I think the lines are still soft.

Baylor beat them in W3 47-17 which was the most points scored in a game by the Coogs this season. But in hindsight, what an easy call that game was. In W1, Oklahoma State "BARELY" beat them by just 26 points. If that game were played today, they'd beat them by 46 or maybe even 56. UCLA only managed to beat them 28-3 which is one reason why I like Oregon St. @ the Rose Bowl this week. If WSU can hold UCLA to 28 at the Rose Bowl, imagine what the Beaver defense can do? The Bruin win over WSU actually counts against them.

:missingte But true!

Yeah, 39 looks pretty soft to me. Lately they've managed to score only 1 touchdown in their last 4 games so backdoors shouldn't be of any great concern. Week after week after week they just keep getting blasted.... incredible.

This game deserves something extra on it. So 2 units it is.

 

[gynecologist]

Arizona is liable to score 70 against WSU.. They scored 70 against Idaho right?


I think this line is weird, thought it was going to be -43 min. GL this week Conan

 

[Conan]

I'm going to play Oregon St. after all. Moevao MAY start but it's likely that Canfield will go instead.

HOWEVER, today Neuheisel just benched 3 starters (2 OL's and 1 DL.). So I'll go with the Beavers regardless of who starts at QB. The Bruin lines have been the weakest part of the team. What little continuity they've had going for themselves at those positions has just taken another big hit.

Utah +2.5/TCU*
Fresno St. -2/NV*
Boise St. -31.5/UTSU*
SJSU-8.5/LA Tech*
Arizona -39/WSU** (best bet)
ASU-14/UW** (2nd best bet)
Oregon St.-7/UCLA*

 

[bellyputter]

Conan, who lets you add money to stale #s? Local?

 

[nd2000]

I'd really like to take CAL, but my gut feeling is telling me that SC will blow them out just like every other opponent that enters the LA Coliseum. USC still looking for BCS style points too.

Wow. SC up from -17 to -21. No respect for Cal. I'm putting some action of the Bears here.

 

[Conan]

Conan, who lets you add money to stale #s? Local?

BP, the only line that moved much was Zona going from 39 to 41, and I didn't note that because I hardly think it will make a difference. Oregon St. was 7 this morning, still 7.5 at a few places. Everything else has been bet. Some for the better some not. But no major moves in any event.

I am very strongly considering Cal +21 but that line could still be on its way up. Probably worth the wait.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Any updates on a Cal play, I have it at 22.5 and counting?

 

[AlwaysKeen]

nice start with Utah...GL the rest of the weekend conan...

 

[J2]

Laying anything under 50 looks good against the Cougs. Az off a bye week is nice.

Gl this week

 

[mightyminnow]

Conan, I see you're not big on totals but would appreciate any thoughts on the Ducks/Trees under 56.5. Both sides top 4 in the pac 10 in the run and run D.......tick tock tick tock game over 27-13.

 

[Conan]

Sorry I didn't see your post minnow....

(but of course I'd have told you to play the over with a couple sorry defenses on the field)

Recap:

Utah +2.5/TCU* (W)
Fresno St. -2/NV* (L)
Boise St. -31.5/UTSU* (W)
SJSU-8.5/LA Tech* (L)
Arizona -39/WSU** (best bet) (L)
ASU-14/UW** (2nd best bet) (W)
Oregon St.-7/UCLA* (W)

4-3 today (+1 unit)

Season total:
36-23 (61%) +17.5 Units

How bout them Coogs putting up 28 points and covering a game today!!
This is shaping up to be one hell of an exciting Apple Cup this year!

 

[Conan]

Any updates on a Cal play, I have it at 22.5 and counting?

As it turned out, I did play Cal +21.5 large but I was at a doctor's appointment this afternoon and didn't post what I had played 'cause I was in a rush to leave.

I can't take any credit for it because I never posted the actual play, but the post up account is where it really matters. (in a selfish sense) In any event, I hope whoever was tailing me caught that big lean which was actually a play in waiting for the best possible number.

 

[nd2000]

As it turned out, I did play Cal +21.5 large but I was at a doctor's appointment this afternoon and didn't post what I had played 'cause I was in a rush to leave.

I can't take any credit for it because I never posted the actual play, but the post up account is where it really matters. (in a selfish sense) In any event, I hope whoever was tailing me caught that big lean which was actually a play in waiting for the best possible number.

Nice. I had CAL too. People will be ripping SC in the media for a lackluster showing here, but nobody understands just how sick of a defensive performance that was to shut a very good CAL offense down, holding them under 200 yards.

 

[GoForIt]

I wonder what the USC-Stanford line will be next week considering Stanford pulled off the biggest upset in history ATS wise last year

 

[nd2000]

I wonder what the USC-Stanford line will be next week considering Stanford pulled off the biggest upset in history ATS wise last year

USC -21 is my guess. Last year it was -40, but Stanford is a lot more competitive this year.