West Coast/Pac-10 Week 02

[Conan]

Season to date:
5-2 (72%) +4 units.

This is a fast post for the sake of people that want to tail me on the USC game.

USC-5½/OSU** (GOW)

Damn, I got my 5½ but minutes later it went to 6. I'd still bet it and call it my game of the week at that number. I bet it at bookmaker 10 min. ago. I think the number will head on up so get on it now if you want it.

Matt Barkley is UNREAL. He absolutely WILL NOT CHOKE at the Horseshoe. Mark my words, he is NOTHING like any true freshman QB you have ever seen. USC's offensive line is damn scary. OSU had wasy too much trouble with Navy's running game to think they can turn it around and get their act together for USC. Their defense has a ways to go, barely dodging the bullet in W1. There's just too many things OSU has to fix. We still aren't completely sure of exactly who will step up and give Pryor a little help moving the ball. This game will be another typical USC whuppin. I promise you that the Buckeyes will be demoralized by the end of the game. Matter of fact, this won't be much of a real game. I'd give them kudos if they can at least look good losing.

I will add more games as soon as I've had a little more time to digest the lines. For now, it's just a bunch of opinions which I will also discuss in this thread in the next few days.

Stay tuned.

 

[Conan]

OH my. Bookmaker just dropped a point to 5 !!
So I hit it some more.

It is 6 at the Greek. This line is doing the oooga booga. Who knows what direction it will take next. But if it's getting bet up some places with USC action and they are taking bets on OSU +6, and other other shops are getting enough action on OSU to push it down to 5... heh... your guess is as good as mine which way it will go next.

It won't matter anyway. This will absolutely not be a TD game. USC should run away and we will get to see Corp again play the 4th quarter. And the Trojans will score with their backup anyway.

 

[ripper]

Like the side.. Its at 5.5 at the Greek

 

[ripper]

Expect a crisper start for the Trojans.

 

[Iceman]

Made all the numbers at open like I do every week and I am just shcoked at this number also and to make matters worse it got resistence after it opened. I am also on USC BIG.

Will be stunned if this went any lower.

 

[Conan]

Made all the numbers at open like I do every week and I am just shcoked at this number also and to make matters worse it got resistence after it opened. I am also on USC BIG.

Will be stunned if this went any lower.

I completely hear you. When I saw it first at 5½, I couldn't click my mouse fast enough to get my bet in.

I am also utterly shocked that it was pushed down to 5 after it went to 6 at bookmaker. Year after year after year... people keep throwing their money away on a hunch that USC won't show up.

Just watch what happens here when the homeys start talking up the Buckeyes. There will be plenty of reasons but NONE of them will apply.

 

[Thepokermanifesto]

Not to hijack your thread, but Conan you are very dialed in on the pac-10. Don't you think that the Cougs will lose by more than 6 in qwest field against Hawaii next week?

 

[Conan]

Not to hijack your thread, but Conan you are very dialed in on the pac-10. Don't you think that the Cougs will lose by more than 6 in qwest field against Hawaii next week?

My first reaction was no and I nearly hit it.

But then I decided it would probably be a good idea to look a little deeper into what Hawaii brings to the game. Remember that they do not have the same prolific offense that they had when JJ was their HC. If anything, their defense seems to be better now than their offense... but like I say, I need to spend a little time with this. The best way to go here might be a totals wager.

Now where's that Zona line... they also seem to be lopsided defensively... so far.
Possibly another reasonable totals opportunity. I think maybe they have Northern Arizona??? fahgetit

Udub... first instinct was to lay the 20 points... (did I really say UW laying 20+ ??) I think Locker may school Vandals.

I also like Oregon St. to put the wood to UNLV... but there I would like to see a little more about UNLV this time around. Last year they were a disappointment. This year they may be weaker. Dunno for sure, but I do think the Beaves offense might blow them out of the water if the Rebs don't have the nuts on defense.

 

[ElTaino]

really like that usc number conan. anything under 7 i will gladly take

 

[Thepokermanifesto]

thanks conan, the cougs look like they are being coached by TY, but qwest field will be rocking earlier with their fans.

 

[MightyGinseng]

Conan, I don't think they ever post AZ/NAU games. Just out of memory I don't recall them being bettable.

I nailed USC at 6 and felt great when I checked the forum and you are on them too. And now its at 5? I don't get why.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Conan, I don't think they ever post AZ/NAU games. Just out of memory I don't recall them being bettable.

I nailed USC at 6 and felt great when I checked the forum and you are on them too. And now its at 5? I don't get why.

5Dimes & BetUS will have a line for sure. Arizona will probably be laying at least 21-24.

 

[Conan]

5Dimes & BetUS will have a line for sure. Arizona will probably be laying at least 21-24.

Yeah, chances are the Cats will release all that frustration from last week's mediocre offensive performance. I doubt N.AZ. will score or move the ball much. CMU's offense is three times what N.Az has on O.

 

[ElTaino]

Yeah, chances are the Cats will release all that frustration from last week's mediocre offensive performance. I doubt N.AZ. will score or move the ball much. CMU's offense is three times what N.Az has on O.

and did you see the wheels on scott? fast qb= problems for nau

 

[Conan]

thanks conan, the cougs look like they are being coached by TY, but qwest field will be rocking earlier with their fans.

Stanford's offense completely outclasses Hawaii's O this year. But, how outclassed will WSU's defense be? Hard to tell after seeing some improvement last week. But geesh, they got a LOOOOOONG ways to go yet. If anything, the Bows have not done well vs the Pac, especially in @games... if you can include the Coogs in that statement, really.

 

[cacheman]

Conan,

The linesmakers must know there will be a ton of money dropped on USC at -5/6 after putting up 50 with a new QB. But, do they really think there will be just as much money dropped on Ohio St. at +5/6? Especially after almost losing to Navy. Don't know who these guys are, but assume they sit in a hidden lab under the Nevada desert crunching data, before releasing the lines to casinos throughout the world. I'm trying to understand this from a linesmaker's perspective.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

The USC # is way too low. I have it at 17 by my own ratings. Ohio State was not looking ahead, they were showing their true colors.

 

[Conan]

Conan,

The linesmakers must know there will be a ton of money dropped on USC at -5/6 after putting up 50 with a new QB. But, do they really think there will be just as much money dropped on Ohio St. at +5/6? Especially after almost losing to Navy. Don't know who these guys are, but assume they sit in a hidden lab under the Nevada desert crunching data, before releasing the lines to casinos throughout the world. I'm trying to understand this from a linesmaker's perspective.

My best guess is that the linemakers figure there will be money on OSU even if USC layed just a FG. Sometimes I have to pinch myself because I disagree so completely with the line. But it's a moneymaking business with reasons behind doing what they do that are entirely their own.

I don't think they really believe that line themselves, but rather they believe that it is where it needs to be to get (steal) enough OSU action. When it went from 6 down to 5, I couldn't imagine any other reason. That's saying a lot about John Q, Square. That's the best I can figure.

 

[Conan]

Another unusual fact about the WSU game.

They had a HUGE outbreak of the swine flu this past week at WSU. I don't know if their football players have contracted it very much, but it's definitely hanging over their heads.... 2000 cases at WSU so far!!!! That's about 1 in 12 students. Another 2000 this week and it may infect more than just a few players. It's something to keep an eye on.

 

[Incubus]

I just hit USC -5 at The Greek (at the time of this post).

It should be interesting to see what kind of line movement we'll get throughout this week.

I agree with the consensus that anything under -7 looks like a GIFT!