please note, not one Republican incumbent loses, including minority leader McConnell who has a 75% chance of winning reelection
unlike liberals, I know it's early and I know things can and do change. But if you want to start to speculate, we might as well cut through the bullshit
as for the source, there are no other people making such predictions at this time to cite, so I had to use the man they love
unlike liberals, I know it's early and I know things can and do change. But if you want to start to speculate, we might as well cut through the bullshit
as for the source, there are no other people making such predictions at this time to cite, so I had to use the man they love
|
|
|
| 40 Safe or Not Up | 3 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 41 Safe or Not Up |
| Leans Dem |
|---|
| NH: Shaheen (D) |
| OR: Merkley (D) |
| Leans GOP |
|---|
| MT: Walsh (D) |
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html
^^^^^ didn't format well
but RCP has it 46-45 with 9 tossups
GOP picks up 3 seats, Dems pick up nothing
of the 9 in play, 7 are democratic seats and 4 or 5 of those 7 seats are in right leaning states
I like the republican chances
but RCP has it 46-45 with 9 tossups
GOP picks up 3 seats, Dems pick up nothing
of the 9 in play, 7 are democratic seats and 4 or 5 of those 7 seats are in right leaning states
I like the republican chances
It’s all well and good to speculate. I am more concerned with what will happen if the Republicans gain control of both houses.
Will they do what’s good for the country or will it be status quo?
Will they pass a bill to repeal Obamacare and when Obama vetoes it, will they turn around and override his veto or will it all be nothing more than a pony and dog show?
I remain skeptical.
Will they do what’s good for the country or will it be status quo?
Will they pass a bill to repeal Obamacare and when Obama vetoes it, will they turn around and override his veto or will it all be nothing more than a pony and dog show?
I remain skeptical.
well, they won't have a veto proof majority so Obamacare is not getting repealed anytime soon
at this point, it's a tangled web that needs to be undone in a well managed and coordinated fashion should that day come. In others word, you can't take the same reckless approach Obama and the democrats did when passing and implementing their clusterfuck
Nate Silver is as much about math as man made global warming is about science
both left wing frauds.
You just can't make this stuff up by the pathetic, always wrong, Wrong Way.
Maybe after Nate totally embarrassed the tool the last 2 National elections, he finally is buying in? When Nate talks, as the elections get closer, NO ONE will be more accurate. Right now, or actually 2 months ago, he had Senate control a tossup. That's probably about where we are currently.
Originally Posted by Willie99
Nate Silver is as much about math as man made global warming is about science
both left wing frauds.
You just can't make this stuff up by the pathetic, always wrong, Wrong Way.
Maybe after Nate totally embarrassed the tool the last 2 National elections, he finally is buying in? When Nate talks, as the elections get closer, NO ONE will be more accurate. Right now, or actually 2 months ago, he had Senate control a tossup. That's probably about where we are currently.
hahahaha, these things always go in cycles.
I remember when Zogby was king shit...until the king shit the bed. Then Rasmussen was all the rage, and one bad election sunk him.
Same thing will happen with Nate.
Pollsters are like touts - they're great...until they ain't.
Rookie.
Nate isn't a Hyper Partisan Dem, he's a statistician, where feelings don't matter, and he did very well in 2010 Senate Calls. Got 3 wrong, calling Angle(R), Buck(R), and Miller(R), over rating Republican numbers, which he did again in 2012 when he had Romney closer to Obama than he ultimately wound up.He's a hyper-partisan Democrat who happened to predict his party would win in a Democrat election cycle - whoop-dee-fucking-doo.
Let's see how well he does next time Republicans win.
"Of the 37 Senate seats contested in the November 2, 2010 elections, 36 were resolved by November 4, including very close outcomes in several states. Of these 36, the FiveThirtyEight model had correctly predicted the winner in 34. One of the two misses was in Colorado, in which the incumbent Michael Bennet (D) outpolled the challenger Ken Buck (R) by less than 1 percentage point. The 538 model had forecast that Buck would win by 1 percentage point. The second miss was in Nevada, in which the incumbent Harry Reid beat challenger Sharron Angle by 5.5 percentage points, whereas the 538 model had forecast Angle to win by 3.0 percentage points. Silver has speculated the error was due at least in part to the fact that polling organizations underrepresented Hispanic voters by not interviewing in Spanish."
PLEASE, take up the Wrong Way mantle of belittling Silver''s numbers. Wrong Way has been so battered and bloodied doing it over the years, and made to look like the fool he is. He needs a successor, and no surprise, you have stepped up to fill the void of idiocy.
