1) Vikings +6 @ Packers (1 unit) - Since Mike Holmgren left Green Bay following the 1998 season the Packers have had only one solid performance on Opening Day, a 28-6 win over the eventual 2-14 Lions in 2001. In every other Week One contest they have struggled.
They trailed 10-7 at halftime in 1999 to the Raiders and needed a last second come from behind victory to win 28-24, but failing to cover the 8 point spread. The following year they lost 20-16 as 2.5 point home favorites to the Jets, led by Al Groh. And last season they again trailed at halftime and needed a FG in overtime to defeat the Falcons 37-34. They begin this season as 6 point home chalk to the Vikings.
Minnesota could have easily packed it in last season following a 3-10 start but they never gave up, beating the Saints, Dolphins and Lions to finish at 6-10. I like to back losing teams from the previous season if they won at least three straight games down the stretch and are underdogs on Opening Day. That momentum seems to carry over and it was obvious to me that this team never quit last year under Mike Tice's watch. According to my power ratings, six points is too much for a team that played better then their record from last year suggests and laying six points is too much for a team that played worse then their 12-4 record. Minnesota the play here.
2) Jaguars +3.5 @ Panthers (1 unit)- Over the past nine seasons, Panthers quarterback Rodney Peete has only been an Opening Day starter twice, with the Eagles in 1996 (a 17-14 win as 1.5 point road dogs in Washington) and last season (a 10-7 win as 2 point home dogs to Baltimore). Both of those wins came against quarterbacks making their first Opening Day start for their respective teams (Gus Frerotte in '96 and Chris Redman in '02). Carolina opens the 2003 season as 3.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. Jacksonville QB Mark Brunell has been solid as an Opening Day starter for the Jaguars, going 5-1 SU & ATS since 1996.
Overall I believe the Panthers are a tad overrated following their 7-9 season last year. They averaged 16 ppg on offense for the second straight year and the only teams they beat SU & ATS as favorites last year were the 4-12 Bears, 3-13 Lions and 2-14 Bengals. Until this team starts generating some points on offense, I will be looking to fade them when they are instilled as favorites. The Jaguars another team that I had rated higher then their 6-10 record would suggest. Jags +3.5.
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 01, 2003 at 02:08 PM.]
They trailed 10-7 at halftime in 1999 to the Raiders and needed a last second come from behind victory to win 28-24, but failing to cover the 8 point spread. The following year they lost 20-16 as 2.5 point home favorites to the Jets, led by Al Groh. And last season they again trailed at halftime and needed a FG in overtime to defeat the Falcons 37-34. They begin this season as 6 point home chalk to the Vikings.
Minnesota could have easily packed it in last season following a 3-10 start but they never gave up, beating the Saints, Dolphins and Lions to finish at 6-10. I like to back losing teams from the previous season if they won at least three straight games down the stretch and are underdogs on Opening Day. That momentum seems to carry over and it was obvious to me that this team never quit last year under Mike Tice's watch. According to my power ratings, six points is too much for a team that played better then their record from last year suggests and laying six points is too much for a team that played worse then their 12-4 record. Minnesota the play here.
2) Jaguars +3.5 @ Panthers (1 unit)- Over the past nine seasons, Panthers quarterback Rodney Peete has only been an Opening Day starter twice, with the Eagles in 1996 (a 17-14 win as 1.5 point road dogs in Washington) and last season (a 10-7 win as 2 point home dogs to Baltimore). Both of those wins came against quarterbacks making their first Opening Day start for their respective teams (Gus Frerotte in '96 and Chris Redman in '02). Carolina opens the 2003 season as 3.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. Jacksonville QB Mark Brunell has been solid as an Opening Day starter for the Jaguars, going 5-1 SU & ATS since 1996.
Overall I believe the Panthers are a tad overrated following their 7-9 season last year. They averaged 16 ppg on offense for the second straight year and the only teams they beat SU & ATS as favorites last year were the 4-12 Bears, 3-13 Lions and 2-14 Bengals. Until this team starts generating some points on offense, I will be looking to fade them when they are instilled as favorites. The Jaguars another team that I had rated higher then their 6-10 record would suggest. Jags +3.5.
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 01, 2003 at 02:08 PM.]
Lou, the Caroline defense still looks good, judging by this preseason. But, I believe Jacksonville's defense is improved, and should put up a strong battle. I give the offensive advantage to Jacksonville on a healthy Fred Taylor alone, and those dump of passed to him shoule make the difference. I'm also seeing this line at 4 at a couple other books Lou, just wondered where you played the 3.5.
3) Browns 'pk' vs. Colts (1 unit) - Cleveland opens the 2003 season with the same quarterback that started for them in Week One last year, Kelly Holcomb. Replacing Tim Couch with Holcomb was the right move as he throws the ball down the field and will help ignite the offense. Interesting to note that the Browns, since coming back into the league in 1999, have scored 33 points or more only four times. It happened twice over fifty one starts by Couch and twice in just three starts for Holcomb.
The Colts finished last year 10-6 but they we're the lowest rated playoff team on my chart, another reason I'm going against them in this situation. They definitely showed they were not playoff material as the Jets, led by Chad Pennington in his first ever playoff game, humiliated this team 41-0.
The "due factor" also comes into play here as the Colts have won their last four Week One contests and Cleveland has lost four straight Opening Day games. These things have a way of reversing themselves and the Browns are "due" for the win here.
4) Ravens +6 @ Steelers (1 unit) - You would think opening the season without Kordell Stewart under center would be a good thing for Pittsburgh but recent history suggests otherwise. The system here is to play against any Opening Day favorite of 3.5 points or more if they made the playoffs last year and begin this season with a different Week One starting quarterback. These teams have gone 1-9 ATS over the past seven seasons.
Baltimore's defense slipped last year, allowing 22 ppg on defense, but they were without the services of LB Ray Lewis for 11 of those games. He is the heart and soul of that team and they were not the same without him. Pittsburgh, usually known for it's solid defense also, allowed an average of 23 ppg last season, the highest amount since Cowher took over in 1992.
Interesting to note that since Brian Billick became head coach of the Ravens in 1999, the home team in this regular season series is 0-7-1 ATS. I have this as a very tight ballgame so the 6 points is a huge plus.
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 01, 2003 at 04:17 PM.]
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 01, 2003 at 04:18 PM.]
The Colts finished last year 10-6 but they we're the lowest rated playoff team on my chart, another reason I'm going against them in this situation. They definitely showed they were not playoff material as the Jets, led by Chad Pennington in his first ever playoff game, humiliated this team 41-0.
The "due factor" also comes into play here as the Colts have won their last four Week One contests and Cleveland has lost four straight Opening Day games. These things have a way of reversing themselves and the Browns are "due" for the win here.
4) Ravens +6 @ Steelers (1 unit) - You would think opening the season without Kordell Stewart under center would be a good thing for Pittsburgh but recent history suggests otherwise. The system here is to play against any Opening Day favorite of 3.5 points or more if they made the playoffs last year and begin this season with a different Week One starting quarterback. These teams have gone 1-9 ATS over the past seven seasons.
Baltimore's defense slipped last year, allowing 22 ppg on defense, but they were without the services of LB Ray Lewis for 11 of those games. He is the heart and soul of that team and they were not the same without him. Pittsburgh, usually known for it's solid defense also, allowed an average of 23 ppg last season, the highest amount since Cowher took over in 1992.
Interesting to note that since Brian Billick became head coach of the Ravens in 1999, the home team in this regular season series is 0-7-1 ATS. I have this as a very tight ballgame so the 6 points is a huge plus.
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 01, 2003 at 04:17 PM.]
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 01, 2003 at 04:18 PM.]
5) Cowboys -2 vs. Falcons (1 unit) - I was really not too excited about this game until after Michael Vick got hurt. He is one of the few guys who could blow a perfectly handicapped game to pieces with one play. But with him out of the lineup, I took a closer look and definitely like the Cowboys here.
Believe it or not, Dallas enters this game with more stability at the quarterback position. Quincy Carter makes his third career Opening Day start for the Cowboys while the Falcons have their third straight different Week One starter. (Chris Chandler in 2001, Michael Vick in 2002 and Doug Johnson this season).
We also have a system going against Atlanta here which is to play against any team that made the playoffs last year for the first time in three seasons or more if they are anywhere from a 3 point road dog to a road favorite on Opening Day. Since 1984 these teams have gone just 1-10-3 ATS.
I also want to bring up a historical reference which involves the two head coaches, Bill Parcells and Dan Reeves. These two guys have coached against each other on six separate occasions and Parcells has come out on top every time. Whether it was a pre-season game in 1985, the Super Bowl in 1986 or a regular season game in 1998, Parcells seems to have Reeves number. Just a little "extra added bonus" there. (That reference is for you Timbo!).
Again, if Vick was playing in this game I would have not been on either side but with him out I'm on the Cowboys -2.
Enjoy all the games!
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 02, 2003 at 09:27 PM.]
Believe it or not, Dallas enters this game with more stability at the quarterback position. Quincy Carter makes his third career Opening Day start for the Cowboys while the Falcons have their third straight different Week One starter. (Chris Chandler in 2001, Michael Vick in 2002 and Doug Johnson this season).
We also have a system going against Atlanta here which is to play against any team that made the playoffs last year for the first time in three seasons or more if they are anywhere from a 3 point road dog to a road favorite on Opening Day. Since 1984 these teams have gone just 1-10-3 ATS.
I also want to bring up a historical reference which involves the two head coaches, Bill Parcells and Dan Reeves. These two guys have coached against each other on six separate occasions and Parcells has come out on top every time. Whether it was a pre-season game in 1985, the Super Bowl in 1986 or a regular season game in 1998, Parcells seems to have Reeves number. Just a little "extra added bonus" there. (That reference is for you Timbo!).
Again, if Vick was playing in this game I would have not been on either side but with him out I'm on the Cowboys -2.
Enjoy all the games!
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 02, 2003 at 09:27 PM.]
Happy Labor Day weekend. Too bad there wasn't football on Sunday...
I like the Vikes and Ravens as good B-play dogs but I will have to differ on the other three.
The enthusiasm for the Panthers is justified and a strong defense at home week 1 should be enough. Jacksonville could be the time-bomb team as the coach wavers from making firms decisions week to week. I love Del Rio but he's in a little bit of a mess right now. I haven't heard good reports about health and their depth is not good. Jimmy Smith is out, Fred Taylor is a "whisper" away, so it's really Brady, 3 yards and a cloud of dust.
Carolina, meanwhile, has a much more positive outlook heading into the season. And although their offense will not score many points, their defense might.
I'm leaning towards Panthers but a 19-16 final might not be good enough.
I just don't see the value of the "due" call in the Indi-Cleveland game. In what should be a crazy shootout, take the over and lean towards an Indi team that usually wins it's first game of the season.
Lastly, backing the Cowboys or the Jaguars seem like risky propositions to me. Atlanta is the better team and has historically played Dallas tough and covered spreads. I'll take Doug Johnson as he matches Carter completion for completion, plus the points.
Good luck this year Lou!
I like the Vikes and Ravens as good B-play dogs but I will have to differ on the other three.
The enthusiasm for the Panthers is justified and a strong defense at home week 1 should be enough. Jacksonville could be the time-bomb team as the coach wavers from making firms decisions week to week. I love Del Rio but he's in a little bit of a mess right now. I haven't heard good reports about health and their depth is not good. Jimmy Smith is out, Fred Taylor is a "whisper" away, so it's really Brady, 3 yards and a cloud of dust.
Carolina, meanwhile, has a much more positive outlook heading into the season. And although their offense will not score many points, their defense might.
I'm leaning towards Panthers but a 19-16 final might not be good enough.
I just don't see the value of the "due" call in the Indi-Cleveland game. In what should be a crazy shootout, take the over and lean towards an Indi team that usually wins it's first game of the season.
Lastly, backing the Cowboys or the Jaguars seem like risky propositions to me. Atlanta is the better team and has historically played Dallas tough and covered spreads. I'll take Doug Johnson as he matches Carter completion for completion, plus the points.
Good luck this year Lou!
oorang i agree
watchout for carolina
fox likes to build his team around a great defence and strong running game. now he has a workhorse steven davis. if he is healthy he will be the top free agent aquisition. he will run the ball limiting errors from the passing game
steven davis over 100 yards= car-3.5
and the biggest question. how will bruenell play knowing they were going to trade him and is still in the trading block. he thought it would be next year he would be gone. even hugh douglas the free agent def linemen thought they were not in a rebuiding phase. i dont think this team has a good objective of where they want to go right now. too many questions while carolina under fox has a definate plan and would love to start w/ a win. it always starts with the top of the organization.
carolina will be most improved team
watchout for carolina
fox likes to build his team around a great defence and strong running game. now he has a workhorse steven davis. if he is healthy he will be the top free agent aquisition. he will run the ball limiting errors from the passing game
steven davis over 100 yards= car-3.5
and the biggest question. how will bruenell play knowing they were going to trade him and is still in the trading block. he thought it would be next year he would be gone. even hugh douglas the free agent def linemen thought they were not in a rebuiding phase. i dont think this team has a good objective of where they want to go right now. too many questions while carolina under fox has a definate plan and would love to start w/ a win. it always starts with the top of the organization.
carolina will be most improved team
Captains notes, I just can't back Dallas as Fav or vs. non-divison teams.Dallas is 16-32-2 ATS vs. non-division teams anywhere.On the other hand Atlanta is only 6-7-1 ATS vs. the NFC east.
Pitt/Baltimore game is a pass.
Baltimore is 14-5-1 ATS in their 1st div. game of the year.Pittsburgh is 55-31-1 ATS at home.
Jack/Car.--Carolina is 12-4 ATS vs. AFC teams.Carolina is 54-33-2 ATS on the grass since the team was formed.I gotta give the edge here to Carolina.Jack. is only 51-43-4 ATS on the grass since this team was formed.If the line falls down to -3, then you have Jacksonville at 16-14-1 ATS when the line is 3 pts either on the road or home.
Back to Dallas.The plus for them is if the line goes to 3pts, the Boys are 12-2-1 ATS in September when the line is +3/-3.
Good luck though.Just the captain's notes.
Pitt/Baltimore game is a pass.
Baltimore is 14-5-1 ATS in their 1st div. game of the year.Pittsburgh is 55-31-1 ATS at home.
Jack/Car.--Carolina is 12-4 ATS vs. AFC teams.Carolina is 54-33-2 ATS on the grass since the team was formed.I gotta give the edge here to Carolina.Jack. is only 51-43-4 ATS on the grass since this team was formed.If the line falls down to -3, then you have Jacksonville at 16-14-1 ATS when the line is 3 pts either on the road or home.
Back to Dallas.The plus for them is if the line goes to 3pts, the Boys are 12-2-1 ATS in September when the line is +3/-3.
Good luck though.Just the captain's notes.
