Week 9

[ofred]

YTD: 39-37, -9.91 units Woo-hoo, won almost a whole unit last week. (total sarcasm)



1* Georgia State +1.5 Late post, I know. These mid-week Group of 5 games seem to be winners based on which way the late money goes. Ga. State at +1 or 1.5 just in the last couple of hours, but at +2.5 before that. Besides, Georgia Southern has little in the way of a defense.... and a turnover prone QB.

 

[ofred]

Now a pick-em at some books.

 

[jchooker]

Im with ya Fred.... Playin Geo St -1 GL

 

[ofred]

Will need a miracle to pull tonight's game out. Ga. State looked flat 1H.
Early games: I tend to favor underdogs in these.

2.2* Kansas +9 Jason Bean has to be one of the best backup QBs in college ball. Kansas is lucky to have him. Oklahoma's win over Texaswas impressive, but I'm still not sold on them being one of the top 5 teams. Kansas has been really good at home ven before their resurgence. Lance Leipold has done an extraordinary job changing the culture in that program.

1* Wake Forest +21 (-113) Wake has an offense even though their QB situation is tenuous. They are at home, playing early, and FSU is undefeated. FSU IMO is not a team I can see getting to the NC playoff. It's hard to get up for every game.

1* UConn +14 They have one win, but have been competitive. This is the 1st season in which their offense can actually pass or run the bal semi-effectively. BC is so dependent on their QB running the ball, and they look like a paper tiger in a way. BC escapes with the win barely.

 

[ofred]

Dogs and more dogs:

2* Arizona +3.5 (-115) The Beavers have weaknesses on run defense....some defensive injuries, and a QB that is inconsistent. Arizona is playing as well on both sides of the ball as anyone in the PAC 12- except Oregon and Utah. Like their backup QB a lot- a real gamer. Home games in Arizona often are good for dogs.

1.7* ASU +5.5 Almost like this one as much. WSU has Cameron Ward, and not much else. They can't run the ball, the defense is dreadful, and so they go as Ward goes. Ward sometimes tries to do too much. ASU is playing pretty good D of late, and even their offense has shown some life. Also at home.

1.2* Purdue +2.5 This game has major RLM. Nebraska just has no passing game, and even their run game is the QB taking off. Purdue coach Ryan Walters may not have the guys he wants yet, but I think he can game plan here to limit the Nebraska QB's running effectiveness.

 

[ofred]

1.1* Vanderbilt +24.5 Ole Miss has 2 tough games next on the schedule, so maybe a more vanilla attack here. Preserve players and plays. Pus Vanderbilt has that back door cover possibility. They play lousy defense for sure, but can move the ball down the field, and score during and late in the game.

1.2* Texas State +7 This offense is just too prolific to be 7 point dogs at home. Upset possible. All the money is on Troy, but Troy has played some awful offenses, unlike the Bobcats.

 

[ofred]

1* CCU +3.5 Grayson McCall out, but the CCU backup is a decent, experienced dual threat QB. Besides, Marshall's offense has become stale, and their defense is way weaker than last season. CCU has a good home crowd that should also influence this game.

1* Stanford +27.5 I'm not sure if Washington is going to be that focused here. They have USC and Utah and Oregon State next on the schedule. Then you have the low energy Stanford crowd. UW hasn't been able to run the ball too well, and their OL and DLs are not that stellar. Just seems like too many points for a road game that UW wants to win, but may not want to show too much.

 

[ofred]

Got to put a little on Texas. Backup QB, BYU getting all the bets, and yet the spread is now around 21. It seems like too many points to a BYU team that has been competitive (and lucky), but maybe folks think Maalik Murphy is gonna shine tomorrow.

 

[ofred]

3.5* Ohio State -14 OSU should get a couple of their offensive stars back for this game. Defense travels, and this one will face a freshman QB for Wisconsin. The Wisconsin OL and defense are not up to their usual standards. Even Mordecai struggled to find time to pass, and his WRs struggled to get separation. Really, OSU and Michigan look like top contenders for the NC playoff.

3.5* Georgia -14 Neutral field. This game, I think exposes Florida a bit. Graham Mertz had a great game vs. a weak South Carolina defense. The SC pass defense is comparable to Vanderbilts. Mertz, to me, is still a dink and dunk passer that makes poor decisions. Georgia's QB Carson Beck has improved and is starting to look like a pro prospect. Georgia has been poor ATS, but just when you think they aren't good at taking care of business, they blow a good team out. Florida at 5-2 is overdue for a thrashing.

 

[ofred]

I like this week's card too much, I guess.

1* UTSA -17.5 A play against an offense (ECU) that is hopeless and on the road. ECU will struggle to score or even move the ball. The problem with offenses like ECU is that even when they move the ball to the red zone or outisde it, they can't score a TD usually. Terrible 3rd down team.

1* Auburn -6 (-112) Miss. State might have won last week vs. Arkansas, and are now 4-3, but I fail to see much that's positive about them. They will have a difficult time vs. a pretty good Auburn D on the road. Auburn on a 4 game losing streak with a brutal schedule during that time. I think they will be at their best here vs. the weakest team they've played since the beginning of that streak.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....BOL with all your Sat. action buddy......
on both your top plays with you....
probably adding Kan. and both Arz.'s......indy

 

[jstwinn7]

Best of luck ofred

 

[Ilovetobet]

bol

 

[VegasKnows]

Love those Big10 plays! And UConn too. Others I haven't looked at.

 

[ofred]

A little on Oregon. Like the Texas line, it just seems to be that the books are begging for Utah (and BYU ) money. Utah has really beat up the Ducks in recent years, especially at home...so this -6 just seems to be counter to past results.