Week 9: Sunday Openers

[ofred]

Sorry about no write-up on these. Will get back to them later, but didn't want the lines to change..

6* Northwestern +24 Ohio State isn't as good as we thought they were. Their downfield passing game is almost nonexistent.

4* Utah +11.5 Hate to going against UW, but Utah at home is a tough place to play, and the Huskies already struggled with a running QB at Arizona.

4* Michigan State +21 I know how bad the Spartans have been, but 21 at home? Michigan has had one road game- at Rutgers. Dantonio will do everything possible to keep his team in this game- kind of like their bowl game since they are likely not going to one.

4* Clemson -3 (-115) FSU is a deeply flawed team, and Clemson has beaten Louisville and Auburn when they had to play great competition. Clemson also has last year's NC games as their experience for these big games.

 

[solrosenberg]

Fred don't be too enamored with Utah they struggled with Cal and USC and will get waxed by U Dub.
Agree with you on Clemson should beat up on FSU.

 

[jimmymo]

4* Utah +11.5 Hate to going against UW, but Utah at home is a tough place to play, and the Huskies already struggled with a running QB at Arizona.

I am with you here fred....been riding the UW all year, but this is the spot to go against imo....I was thinking that this would be 7.5 and was still leaning Utah....11.5 surprised me

 

[ofred]

Let's start with Utah since there seems to be a discussion forming.

4* Utah +11.5 I also had this line at about 7.5. The Huskies are going to be a handful, but Utah in Rice Eccles Stadium is going to even things out a bit. The fans are right on top of the field, and are extremely loud. Washington has not had a really tough road game unless you count Arizona, and that one didn't go that well(tied at end of regulation). Also, the Huskies have played against only really poor defenses, except for Stanford. Not just mediocre defenses, but really bad- Beavers, Ducks, Arizona, Idaho, Rutgers, Portland State…. And though Chris Petersen deservedly is recognized as one of the best coaches in the conference, Kyle Whittingham deserves his own kudos. He has gone 8-1 in bowl games, often as an underdog. Remember how good Michigan was last year, well they lost at Utah. Whittingham has won many big games like this and often without the offensive talent that his opponents had. Utah will need Joe Williams to have another big game, and though he won't get anywhere near 332 yards, he will make Utah's offense two dimensional. And that 332 yards was against a very good UCLA run defense.

UDub has to be favored here. They destroyed Stanford, their only challenge this season. But Utah has a pretty good run defense themselves, and if the Huskies have any weakness, it's their OL. At times they haven't been able to run well. The key, though, for Utah is to give Jake Browning less time in the pocket. Utah's QB Troy Williams is also a better passer than his stats, at least by what I've seen. He has thrown a few interceptions in the red zone that have kind of killed his QBR, but he has a nice touch and good pocket presence. No Jake Browning, but he is a gamer. If Washington wins easily here, I'd be surprised…but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Utes upset.

 

[ofred]

3* Appalachian State -5 These 2 teams were pretty similar last year, but now Appalachian State is the much better team. GaSO has a lot of observers feeling as if the new coaching staff has done a dreadful job on the offensive side of the ball. GS players seem out of shape and lack push on both the DL and OL. They could very easily have lost to both ULM and New Mexico State- two extreme bottom feeders. App. State was overmatched vs. Miami, but otherwise has looked very sharp vs. all other competition. Very impressed with their pass defense and passing offense this season, two areas they are not usually known for. They also get RB Marcus Cox back this week, giving them 3 good running options. Taylor Lamb, the App. State QB, is an underrated passer, while GS has been passing more of late, although with mixed results. Favian Upshaw, one of their QBs, seems to be out with an injury. In defensive efficiency, AS is 46th nationwide, while GS is 86th. I'll give up the points on the road on a well-balanced, well coached team that realizes this is the biggest game on their schedule.

 

[ofred]

6* Northwestern +24 I don't think 24 is available, but 22.5 might be a decent take. I wouldn't take this game based on last year's Northwestern team that had a better defense but an offense that was inept.

Ohio State should have beaten Penn State(they outplayed them), and would have if it didn't play terribly in the 4th quarter and on special teams. On the other hand, they could have lost the Wisconsin game and maybe deserved to. Either way, there are cracks in this Buckeye team. Losing 12 NFL draft picks WAS a lot to lose in talent and experience(and 5 of the NFL picks were in the first 20 of the 1st round). The Ohio State receivers either don't get separation or JT Barrett misses them on long and medium routes. The secondary is average.

Pat Fitzgerald is no Urban Meyer, but he is one of those overachieving coaches that gets more out of his players than the talent warrants. His QB, Clayton Thorson, has shown a lot of improvement from last year..NW also has a go-to receiver in Austin Carr and a workhorse RB In Justin Jackson. NW has reclaimed their season with wins at Iowa and MSU, also beating Duke and Indiana. Now this line is so high for a reason. Northwestern has been tough defensively against the run, and they'll have to limit Ohio State's run game too. NW is more vulnerable to strong pass games, but OSU has struggled there in recent weeks. One of the reasons I like this large spread is that Ohio State seems to be playing the short game, with long drives down the field- eating clock. Ohio State also rotates so many guys into the game I wonder if that is working against them. It almost seems like UM is either trying out players to find the best 22, or is trying to please too many guys by making sure everyone plays.

 

[ofred]

YTD: 57-50, + 23.90 units Won just a couple of units, but if you played just the 3* and 4*, you did better…Same old, same old.

 

[indiana]

Fred..........continue those winning ways with your action this week.............indy

 

[ofred]

6* Northwestern +24 I don't think 24 is available, but 22.5 might be a decent take. I wouldn't take this game based on last year's Northwestern team that had a better defense but an offense that was inept.

Ohio State should have beaten Penn State(they outplayed them), and would have if it didn't play terribly in the 4th quarter and on special teams. On the other hand, they could have lost the Wisconsin game and maybe deserved to. Either way, there are cracks in this Buckeye team. Losing 12 NFL draft picks WAS a lot to lose in talent and experience(and 5 of the NFL picks were in the first 20 of the 1st round). The Ohio State receivers either don't get separation or JT Barrett misses them on long and medium routes. The secondary is average.

Pat Fitzgerald is no Urban Meyer, but he is one of those overachieving coaches that gets more out of his players than the talent warrants. His QB, Clayton Thorson, has shown a lot of improvement from last year..NW also has a go-to receiver in Austin Carr and a workhorse RB In Justin Jackson. NW has reclaimed their season with wins at Iowa and MSU, also beating Duke and Indiana. Now this line is so high for a reason. Northwestern has been tough defensively against the run, and they'll have to limit Ohio State's run game too. NW is more vulnerable to strong pass games, but OSU has struggled there in recent weeks. One of the reasons I like this large spread is that Ohio State seems to be playing the short game, with long drives down the field- eating clock. Ohio State also rotates so many guys into the game I wonder if that is working against them. It almost seems like UM is either trying out players to find the best 22, or is trying to please too many guys by making sure everyone plays.

It's back up to 24 again. 24.5 in some places. NW run defense giving up only 11 yards more per game than Ohio State. Must be an Urban Meyer team kind of bet after a loss.

 

[ofred]

Betting Michigan State +21 down to a 1*. I never win playing MSU for or against. The injuries for them are mounting and too many young players make them liable to get beaten. Besides Harbaugh plays all out until the end no matter what the score, and so a back door cover not likely. MSU's OL might get overwhelmed.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

utah and ohio st both being bet hard by sharps

 

[solrosenberg]

Great! Let the "sharps" suck the Utah line down to 8 1/2!

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

what good is a 8.5 line for a favorite

 

[cashflow50]

up to 26 at some places for NW

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

up to 26 at some places for NW

27 now

 

[Pickle2728]

27 now

Got some steam for sure.
I bit on the +27.

GL gents

 

[ofred]

Glad to be off the MSU line before it also went up. As for sharp moves, they are to be respected, but there many sharps out there, and sometimes move the line one way on a game and then other sharps move it the other way. On Sunday, when I got 24, the line was down to 22.5 hours later (sharp move). Now it could be they bet it down only to hit it at 22.5, but usually it's that they disagree. All of you out there who have bet football for years and years KNOW that you have followed the sharps through line movement(sometimes early week, sometimes late week), and lost. And won. They, like us, have a perception of how a game will go. Just this year, I have won 3 Boise games going against the sharp money.

Ohio State in the past 2 years has failed to cover at home quite a few times, and part of the reason is that the spreads are ridiculously high. And last year, when they failed to cover 5 games at home, they had a better team than this one. When the line is so high, it allows for such a small bit of error for OSU being a little off, a turnover, a special teams TD by the opposition, weather, a missed TD bomb to a WR, you name it. If Northwestern was like Hawaii or Tulsa, earlier butt-kickings by the Buckeyes, I'd hesitate, but they're not. I wish I could get the +26-27, and maybe this line gets hit hard again by the sharp money on Northwestern.

 

[ofred]

4* Clemson -3 Sorry about the late write-up, and this Sunday line is long gone. Please don't ask if I'd take it at 5 or whatever, just check the RX for posters on Sundays. There are a number of us who post early plays.

I'll start with FSU. Their defense has come under the most criticism, and much of it deserved. They have especially struggled with dynamic offenses like UNC, Louisville, USF and Ole MIss. Clemson is next, and though they have had their ups and downs, their defeat of Louisville and at Auburn show what they can do. I really like that they are coming off a bye. I also like their experience in games in the "big game atmosphere" going back to last year. Clemson can get behind and won't get flustered. As for FSU, their offense has begun to look less than stellar…(to be continued)

 

[ofred]

FSU's QB, the freshman Deondre Francois, will likely be one of the great QBs of 2017. He is already surpassing expectations. But he still has some freshman in him. When his OL has been a little porous, he tends to look uncomfortable in the pocket, sometimes fumbling, sometimes throwing into coverage, sometimes getting sacked. Francois also stares at his primary receiver more than an experienced QB should. Usually Travis Rudolph. Francois needed the bye too as he is recovering from a shoulder injury that is not too severe. The OL and Dalvin Cook are not producing the monster numbers as expected, being limited by Lousiville, Ole Miss, Wake, and Houston in last year's bowl game. In fact, Cook hasn't been as explosive since that bowl game…and that was after an amazing run up until then. I also have to factor in an extra week for Clemson DC Brent Venables to plot a D strategy, and that Clemson is just a physical as FSU(maybe more so) so that won't be a factor as it usually is for Seminole opponents like Wake, USF and even Miami.

 

[ofred]

3* WVU/ Oklahoma St.- under 65 Going back to last year, when West Virginia also had a good defense, they kept the scores of their Big 12 games down to reasonable levels. Also, you have to have mucho respect for holding TCU to 10 and Texas Tech to 17. Seems like they are even a much better D than the beginning of this year. TT Coach Kingsbury said they defended the spread really well, not giving up yardage after short passes, tackling well, playing downhill and with a 3-3-5, made it difficult to know what gaps to block. TCU Coach Gary Patterson also praised the WV D by saying they played together, played smart and were very physical. DC Tony Gibson lost a few really talented players to the NFL, but this year's group is mostly juniors and seniors- showing the depth WVU had in defensive recruiting. WVU's pass defense is only giving up a 52% completion rate, and only 5 rushing TDs.

Now I think this total is at 65 because: #1 Oklahoma State is not very good defensively. But, here they are playing at home vs. an undefeated team, and OSU vying for at least a decent bowl game. You'll see a good solid effort. Also, WVU is a run heavy offense, partly because they have a defense that can keep their opponents in check, partly because the OL is better at run blocking than pass blocking. As for Oklahoma State on offense, well…they haven't played one good D yet this year, unless you count Baylor. And against Baylor they ran more than usual, and passed short down the field. I can see a total more in the mid-40s to mid-50s here.