Week 9 and more

[russ1945]

As the season progresses my off season prediction that as many as 8 teams would fall from the AP preseason top 25 is coming to fruition. The benefit of this info is that those teams who fall out of the top 25 are bet against teams. Here are the teams who have fallen so far: S. Caroina, Stanford, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, N. Carolina, Mizzou, and Washington. Combined these teams are a combined 17-32 ATS (35%).

I also pointed out that the teams who were not on the preseason top 25 and made it at seasons end were bet on teams. The season is not yet over but these are the teams who have replaed the teams listed above: Miss State, TCU, Arizona, E. Carolina, Utah, W. Virginia, and Marshall. These teams are a combined 31-12-1 ATS (72%). If you eliminated Arizona they are 29-8-1 (79%).

It’s not over till it’s over but so far the system is holding. 6 teams in the current top 25 have 2 losses so there will probably be some more changes.

If you look at the current AP top 25 combined they are 99-66-3 ATS (60%). If you eliminated Florida St and UCLA who are both 1-6 ATS they remainder of teams are a combined 97-54 ATS (63%)

BOL

 

[russ1945]

By the way, I jumped on Alabama and W Virginia Sunday night. Like both of them a lot.

 

[GoSooners]

I wouldn't necessarily bet against these teams just because they have fallen out of the top 25. There are individual reasons for all of them taking a dip. But they are all different. I personally wouldn't bet against UW in many games going forward. Especially since they have one of the better defenses and better TO margins in the Pac-12 despite their game with Oregon. You can lump all of these teams together and not call them a good bet as a group. But as you know there are good spots and bad spots for every team in the country, despite their ATS record.

 

[tmader7]

GS, what be the temp on the thermometer in Norman today??? I got some emails from the Buds back in Tulsa today, and it ain't pretty. Ya know, no one seems to remember the fact that guys like Shannon and Mixon never even played a snap, and they were key cogs in the transmission. That being said, and I could look this up myself I guess but thought you might have it handy, what's Snyder's record against Bobby Ball?

~T~

 

[GoSooners]

GS, what be the temp on the thermometer in Norman today??? I got some emails from the Buds back in Tulsa today, and it ain't pretty. Ya know, no one seems to remember the fact that guys like Shannon and Mixon never even played a snap, and they were key cogs in the transmission. That being said, and I could look this up myself I guess but thought you might have it handy, what's Snyder's record against Bobby Ball?

~T~

Everybody thought I was crazy when I said OU would win 9-10 games this year. I've already won my under 10.5 wins for the season bet. The problem with OU and the public perception is people think OU is still an elite team. But on a scale of 1-5 OU ranks at about 3.5. They haven't been a top 10 recruiting program for a few years now. Which always brings teams back to the pack, as we've seen since they haven't won a Big 12 title in a few years. The last elite team we had was 2008. Why should this year be any different. The Sooners had only 5 starters back on offense. But that was mainly the OL. With the exception of Bell and Shepherd, just about everybody else is very inexperienced. Which doesn't bode well when your trying to outscore the elite offenses in the Big 12. There's no room for error for the Sooners as we saw against KSU, who was a much more disciplined team. Going forward it wouldn't suprise me if OU lost one more game. I just don't think they have an identity on offense. And their 3-4 defense isn't working out because they don't have a lot of elite talent at linebacker. So it's a struggle right now. They might possibly get a few things ironed out in this bye week. It's their defense that I have more concerns about, since it's not quite as easy a fix. The offense has scored at least 30 points in 11 straight games. But it doesn't help you when the other team scores 31. This was the problem last year too. In a nutshell Bob Stoops needs to get out on the recruiting trail and dog the hell out of these 4 and 5 star recruits. Until they start landing some of this elite blue chip talent OU will continue to be in the same boat they are now. It's not the X's and O's it's the Jimmy's and Joe's.

 

[sendacash]

Call it the curse of Katie Perry if you will, that pick 6 was just ridiculously bad, and don't get me started that No good bush whackin' barracuda of a kicker.

 

[CoachCB]

Will someone please call me when Will Muschamp gets his ass run out of Gainesville?

 

[tmader7]

Let me ask ya something, and this is honest, down and dirty, rough and ready. I have never pictured Stoops as a premier recruiter, and I say this having sat on both sides of the fence, watching and playing. Is he recruiting top-notch talent? Yeah, Mixon was as high on the list as you'd want I guess on the O side, but my days of remembering Sooner football was the defense. Nothing since way back when and the Selmon boys, actually met Bosworth in a club in the City one time, my date made a fool of herself lambasting him for I can't remember what, but he took it in stride and we had a pretty good conversation. Had to have the date put in my trunk for safe keeping though, lol. But seriously, as that old lady in the Wendy's commercials used to scream, "Where's the D?" lol. Mike better get it out of first.

~T~

 

[GoSooners]

Let me ask ya something, and this is honest, down and dirty, rough and ready. I have never pictured Stoops as a premier recruiter, and I say this having sat on both sides of the fence, watching and playing. Is he recruiting top-notch talent? Yeah, Mixon was as high on the list as you'd want I guess on the O side, but my days of remembering Sooner football was the defense. Nothing since way back when and the Selmon boys, actually met Bosworth in a club in the City one time, my date made a fool of herself lambasting him for I can't remember what, but he took it in stride and we had a pretty good conversation. Had to have the date put in my trunk for safe keeping though, lol. But seriously, as that old lady in the Wendy's commercials used to scream, "Where's the D?" lol. Mike better get it out of first.

~T~

Yes, Stoops used to be a top notch recruiter back in the early days at OU and up until around 2007 or so. And in his days at Florida as Spurrier's DC. But it's just not him, his coaching staff has been getting fat and lazy. Sometimes when a coach has been at a school for 15 years and making $5 million a year they start getting too comfortable. And you can never just punch the clock in today's game with all of these hot young coaches climbing the ladder. I think Stoops still works at it. But the biggest problem in general may be beyond his ability to recruit. The Big 12 has slowly gone downhill because all of the more elite teams in the conference are gone like Nebraska, Mizzou and A$M. We're left with a couple good teams and a lot of middle of the pack teams. That's not going to give your conference any national recognition with blue chip recruits. They are heading to the SEC or Pac-12 where they think it gives them the best chance to go high in the NFL draft. All of those teams leaving was basically the death knell for the Big 12-4+2. It won't ever be the same again. Especially without a playoff game and no elite teams left to join...

 

[CoachCB]

Yes, Stoops used to be a top notch recruiter back in the early days at OU and up until around 2007 or so. And in his days at Florida as Spurrier's DC. But it's just not him, his coaching staff has been getting fat and lazy. Sometimes when a coach has been at a school for 15 years and making $5 million a year they start getting too comfortable. And you can never just punch the clock in today's game with all of these hot young coaches climbing the ladder. I think Stoops still works at it. But the biggest problem in general may be beyond his ability to recruit. The Big 12 has slowly gone downhill because all of the more elite teams in the conference are gone like Nebraska, Mizzou and A$M. We're left with a couple good teams and a lot of middle of the pack teams. That's not going to give your conference any national recognition with blue chip recruits. They are heading to the SEC or Pac-12 where they think it gives them the best chance to go high in the NFL draft. All of those teams leaving was basically the death knell for the Big 12-4+2. It won't ever be the same again. Especially without a playoff game and no elite teams left to join...

GS, the problem is OU ain't going to fire Stoops. If you consistently contend for your conference title you'll be there as long as you want. He's Mark Richt (except he does have a national title). Both very, very good coaches and administrator's. They aren't going anywhere.

As a fan, sure you want more. But what you need to hope for is all the stars to align. I think it was unrealistic to think OU would win it all this year w/ the QB situation. When OU gets another star QB and has a loaded team returning THEN OU fans should get their hopes up.

Stoops is a very good coach....fans just need to realize you can't win 'em all.....

 

[GoSooners]

GS, the problem is OU ain't going to fire Stoops. If you consistently contend for your conference title you'll be there as long as you want. He's Mark Richt (except he does have a national title). Both very, very good coaches and administrator's. They aren't going anywhere.

As a fan, sure you want more. But what you need to hope for is all the stars to align. I think it was unrealistic to think OU would win it all this year w/ the QB situation. When OU gets another star QB and has a loaded team returning THEN OU fans should get their hopes up.

Stoops is a very good coach....fans just need to realize you can't win 'em all.....

Like I said, I'm a pretty realistic fan because i knew what the Sooners were bringing back this year. The biggest reason why they would never let Stoops go is because he has generated a ton of revenue for the school and still does. They aren't going to get rid of that cash cow.

 

[russ1945]

Where would the Big 12 be if Mizzou, Texas A&M, and Nebraska would have stayed. Better than the SEC I would say and definitely better than the Pac 12. Mizzou and A&M improved since leaving the Big 12 which really makes me wonder though. They helped inject offense and especially quality QB's in the conference. OU is down a notch in many respects but they have lost 2 games to 2 conference teams both of which are in the top 25 by a total of 5 points. An all conference kicker cost them a loss missing 3 kicks, what are the chances. And now people are trying to take down Bob Stoops, too funny. His problem is not with recruiting. It is his loyalty to his asst coaches. Heupel sucks, that call at their own goal line was the worst I have seen in many moons, gave the game away in a matter of seconds. Still they could have won. Mike Stoops had two weeks to get ready for TCU and blew it big time. I think their personnel is fine. They are missing a great RB recruit and a very good LB. I blame his loyalty to his asst coaches long before I would his ability to recruit. That falls mostly on asst coaches anyway. Mizzou and A&M are struggling right now, very inconsistent at best and nobody is blaming their head coaches for lack of recruiting. Bob Stoop's record is way up the ladder and those two losses were not necessarily on his personnel. Heupel has to go (who else would want him) and it is time for Bob to cut the ties with Mike. The Big 12 may not be what it once was but not too many teams are wanting to schedule OU, Baylor, or TCU right now and West Virginia is improving. Okla St will get it going again and Texas has no where to go but up. Naw, I am not giving up on the Big 12 or Bob Stoops at least not yet.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ, I agree about Huepel. He's awful and needs to go. But recruiting is a big deal. It's what has seperated OU and Texas from the rest of the pack in the past. But when Texas is recruiting 15th in the country (last year) and OU isn't in the top 10 either, they can no longer be considered elite teams, no matter how good the coaching is. This needs to be fixed if they want to start winning Big 12 titles again. Dropping out of the top 10 in recruiting in the last 5 years and not winning the Big 12 title in 4 years are directly related to each other. There's no getting around it...

 

[russ1945]

I lost faith in those recruiting ratings a long time ago. They key is to fill needs and to get players that fit your system. Boise St proved that and sent many players to the NFL in the process. Coaching includes developing players and making the right calls during a game. Heupel and Mike Stoops are not cutting the mustard. I think their current players could be used better and I also think they are doing well. Two losses by a total of 5 points.

 

[GoSooners]

I lost faith in those recruiting ratings a long time ago. They key is to fill needs and to get players that fit your system. Boise St proved that and sent many players to the NFL in the process. Coaching includes developing players and making the right calls during a game. Heupel and Mike Stoops are not cutting the mustard. I think their current players could be used better and I also think they are doing well. Two losses by a total of 5 points.

Not me. I think recruiting rankings are extremely important. And are directly correlated to how I cap games. I think this is the least talented group of linebackers that we've had at OU since Stoops has been there. There's basically Striker and nobody else. And he's not the best open field tackler compared to his pass rushing ability. All you have to do is see the difference of how good Mike Stoops defenses were when we had the elite talent back there to make the plays, and compare it to what he has now. His coaching methods aren't any different, but the players aren't as elite as they once were.

 

[tmader7]

Where would the Big 12 be if Mizzou, Texas A&M, and Nebraska would have stayed. Better than the SEC I would say and definitely better than the Pac 12. Mizzou and A&M improved since leaving the Big 12 which really makes me wonder though. They helped inject offense and especially quality QB's in the conference. OU is down a notch in many respects but they have lost 2 games to 2 conference teams both of which are in the top 25 by a total of 5 points. An all conference kicker cost them a loss missing 3 kicks, what are the chances. And now people are trying to take down Bob Stoops, too funny. His problem is not with recruiting. It is his loyalty to his asst coaches. Heupel sucks, that call at their own goal line was the worst I have seen in many moons, gave the game away in a matter of seconds. Still they could have won. Mike Stoops had two weeks to get ready for TCU and blew it big time. I think their personnel is fine. They are missing a great RB recruit and a very good LB. I blame his loyalty to his asst coaches long before I would his ability to recruit. That falls mostly on asst coaches anyway. Mizzou and A&M are struggling right now, very inconsistent at best and nobody is blaming their head coaches for lack of recruiting. Bob Stoop's record is way up the ladder and those two losses were not necessarily on his personnel. Heupel has to go (who else would want him) and it is time for Bob to cut the ties with Mike. The Big 12 may not be what it once was but not too many teams are wanting to schedule OU, Baylor, or TCU right now and West Virginia is improving. Okla St will get it going again and Texas has no where to go but up. Naw, I am not giving up on the Big 12 or Bob Stoops at least not yet.

Off base at best. Even if those three schools were still in the Big 12, NEVER match the SEC, you'd be doing some kind of crazy Amazon shrooms to think such. Pac-12, I'd never get in the car, west coast play not up to snuff with the south these days. Pelini can't recruit my sister to play, let alone solid top talent. Sumlin, I like him, but still waiting for another year or two to see the "whole body of work." E.G. how's he look right now? LOL. Mizzou is schizo, here I am, here I go, here I isn't. SEC ball is in the West, won't be different this year, or the next, or the next or........

 

[GoSooners]

Off base at best. Even if those three schools were still in the Big 12, NEVER match the SEC, you'd be doing some kind of crazy Amazon shrooms to think such. Pac-12, I'd never get in the car, west coast play not up to snuff with the south these days. Pelini can't recruit my sister to play, let alone solid top talent. Sumlin, I like him, but still waiting for another year or two to see the "whole body of work." E.G. how's he look right now? LOL. Mizzou is schizo, here I am, here I go, here I isn't. SEC ball is in the West, won't be different this year, or the next, or the next or........

And the reason for the SEC dominance is recruiting and nothing else. Nearly every team in that conference is a top 30 recruiting program. None of the other conferences come close to that number. When the recruiting rankings start swaying to the other conferences, then we'll start seeing national champions from other conferences. FSU is doing so well because they've been a top 5 recruiting program for the past few years. And they have the #2 Rivals recruited QB. No coincidence there either. They just out recruited everybody else. We certainly can't call Jimbo Fisher a great coach, so it has to be something else....hmm, I wonder what it could be?

 

[RunLeeRun]

I lost faith in those recruiting ratings a long time ago. They key is to fill needs and to get players that fit your system. Boise St proved that and sent many players to the NFL in the process. Coaching includes developing players and making the right calls during a game. Heupel and Mike Stoops are not cutting the mustard. I think their current players could be used better and I also think they are doing well. Two losses by a total of 5 points.

I'm with you. You have to sift through the big business aspect of it. There are plenty of players that don't even go around to some of these camps, so they are way under the radar. The good recruiters get in on these kids without some jockless nerd telling him how many stars he has. Yeah, Alabama does it by getting the top class every year. But there are also the Kstates and Boises that do it by developing. talent.

 

[RunLeeRun]

And the reason for the SEC dominance is recruiting and nothing else.

Naw, you got to throw coaching in there. I'll give you just 1 compare/contrast. Michigan to Michigan St. By the recruiting rankings, Michigan fits your SEC model. State has 1 top 30 class in the last 4 years. State not only owns Michigan on the field, they've also won 11 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Michigan had 1 such season, and we all know it was smoke and mirrors at this point.

 

[tmader7]

And the reason for the SEC dominance is recruiting and nothing else. Nearly every team in that conference is a top 30 recruiting program. None of the other conferences come close to that number. When the recruiting rankings start swaying to the other conferences, then we'll start seeing national champions from other conferences. FSU is doing so well because they've been a top 5 recruiting program for the past few years. And they have the #2 Rivals recruited QB. No coincidence there either. They just out recruited everybody else. We certainly can't call Jimbo Fisher a great coach, so it has to be something else....hmm, I wonder what it could be?

Florida a beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeg state to recruit. I don't know the numbers off hand, but if my neighbor put a gun to my head (shit, shouldn't say such a thing in Charlotte, there's several shootings every night, lol) I'd say Texas 1, Florida 2, Cali maybe 3? Swaggin it here, but should be close.

~T~