Week 8

[ofred]

Last week: 5-4 on large plays. 3-4 on small plays. The 3 points beat me on the Pitt game, and almost on the OSU game (if they had won late)

Small:
La. Tech/ NMSU- over 10 1Q LT should be able to score fairly easily on this Aggies D. But the LT defense is also nothing to brag about, and NMSU has run up 825 yards the last 2 weeks. Turnovers have been part of their problem, but they do have a decent offense.

 

[ofred]

That didn't go well...should have gone 2Q.
Small:
Virginia Tech -7 Virginia Tech might only be 3-3, but they seem like they have the pieces for a better record ahead. BC lost their best CB to injury, has issues on the OL and with the run game. VT DL gets in the backfield a lot here and Castellanos will have to save the BC offense with his wheels. Too much so. BC at 4-2 should regress to about .500 or maybe worse.

 

[ofred]

Small:
Oregon -27 Now that Oregon has some film on the new Purdue QB, I think Purdue's offense will be a lot less successful than they were 2H vs. Illinois. A large part of this is just how hopelessly slow and poor at tackling the Purdue defense is. Oregon is going to break off some monster runs and/or many 5-10 yard runs throughout the game. The Ducks are also likely to score even in garbage time- as they did in their Oregon State game. Not concerned about a letdown from Oregon off their OSU win. Lanning has made a large emphasis on forgetting the week before and focusing on the next game.

Duke/ FSU- under 42.5 Seems like a low number, but Duke has already come under this number 3 times this season, and once slightly over. FSU's defense will likely be difficult for Duke to handle. On the other hand, FSU looks completely lost offensively. Brock Glenn will not get much time to throw as his OL is terrible. The FSU run game has been ineffective all season. Wish this number was a little higher.

 

[ofred]

Small:
Oregon -27 Now that Oregon has some film on the new Purdue QB, I think Purdue's offense will be a lot less successful than they were 2H vs. Illinois. A large part of this is just how hopelessly slow and poor at tackling the Purdue defense is. Oregon is going to break off some monster runs and/or many 5-10 yard runs throughout the game. The Ducks are also likely to score even in garbage time- as they did in their Oregon State game. Not concerned about a letdown from Oregon off their OSU win. Lanning has made a large emphasis on forgetting the week before and focusing on the next game.

Duke/ FSU- under 42.5 Seems like a low number, but Duke has already come under this number 3 times this season, and once slightly over. FSU's defense will likely be difficult for Duke to handle. On the other hand, FSU looks completely lost offensively. Brock Glenn will not get much time to throw as his OL is terrible. The FSU run game has been ineffective all season. Wish this number was a little higher.

Going large on the Oregon game. Purdue the 11th worst tackling team in the FBS, injuries on D....I just think this game gets ugly.

 

[ofred]

Small:
Oklahoma St. +10 3rd bet for Friday night. Okie State coming off two bad losses, but has a lot of experience on the team. The offense should have a resurgence at some point, and the defense is probably going to have some new faces replacing poor performing upperclassmen. Besides, is BYU really an undefeated caliber team? I don't see it. Off a bye and 10 points.

 

[ofred]

VT looking good at thwe half.

Large:
UConn -2 This feels like a win for the Huskies. Off a bye, and winning some of their games easily. Really nice run game to go with a solid defense. Wake Forest looks like they are falling flat offensively. Bachmeier at Boise didn't handle pressure in the pocket well, and history might be repeating itself. UConn at home and should have a nice crowd on hand.

Virginia +21.5 (-114) Clemson looks good, no denying it. But they have just played 3 inept offenses. The Virginia QB has nice dual threat skills, and their defense is better than what was expected. Clemson kind of due for an off game, and have 3 ACC opponents on deck that are the main competition in the ACC.

Northwestern +8 Could be Northwestern has found a decent QB in Jack Lausch. The NW OL is also trending up. Wisconsin might be coming off two easy wins with Purdue and an overrated Rutgers team, but these road games with a high effort team like NW can be really tough to win. Wouldn't be surprised to see an outright upset here. Remember, Wisconsin looked pretty awful through game 4.

 

[ofred]

VT not as good in the 3Q. Talk about blowing a lead quickly.

Small:
Nebraska +7 (-116) Indiana has been impressive, but this is the first good defense they have faced. Got a sense this is a close game that could go either way. Nebraska will have to run the ball well.

South Carolina +2 Oklahoma's offense has been worse than awful against any team that has a resemblance of a defense. Now they are going with a true freshman. South Carolina came so close to beating Alabama, and they still need a win badly. Both teams do. SC just looked so impressive last week, in their KY game and for much of the LSU game, they should be able to win this.

 

[bluefish33]

Thanks and keep it rolling Ofred, love your handicapping, you are the man!

 

[Mofome2]

Thanks Fred. Could you give me your thoughts on Florida vs Kentucky? Got some others feedback and would like to hear yours as well.

 

[ofred]

Thanks and keep it rolling Ofred, love your handicapping, you are the man!

Looking at this game, undecided.

 

[ofred]

Large:
Auburn +4.5 Auburn is 2-4, but could just as easily be 4-2 or 5-1. They keep shooting themselves in the foot, but are a talented team on both sides of the ball. Missouri seems overrated, maybe quite a bit overrated. Gonna predict an Auburn win where they play without the penalties as much and with 1 or fewer turnovers.

Arkansas State -6.5 (-114) Another team that should be better than their record. The offense is decent, with pretty good dual threat QB. Tough schedule so far. S. Miss. is inept offensively and at the QB position, and not much better on the other side of the ball. Feels like an easy win for the home team.

Georgia Tech +14 Brent Key has made a name for himself competing and winning in games where they have been big underdogs, going back to last year. I like the scenario even with Haynes King out. The backup has been with the team for 3 years now, is mobile, a decent passer, and I think his team will rally around him. ND has some injuries piling up, and besides, who doesn't get up for playing them? The GT defense has played well, although they will have to play very motivated here.

 

[one51rum]

That ga tech‽ line is crazy. I thought same thing. But the qb is ? And he is important. But I thought a td would be tops, have no clue why it keeps going up.....BYU has beaten everyone they played, they have covered well too, if I lose on them, they still have made me a lot, ever seen that place at night? It's a very tough place to play....one thing I will admit BYU's lines have been inflated a bit only because they keep covering, even when public has went against them like last week they covered again and by a lot

 

[ofred]

The GT QB is Zach Pyron. Not going to play Florida game...too many questionable players. BYU has been a surprise, but they aren't so good as to not have an off game. They could still lose 2-3 games over the rest of their schedule.

 

[ofred]

Small:
Hawaii +18.5 This Hawaii team has been competitive for the most part. Boise's Jeanty kind of beat them single-handedly last week, getting about half their yards. But defensively they aren't bad, and the passing game should be able to score on the Wazzu D. The Cougars have come back to earth in recent weeks, and the weather in Pullman won't be too cold.

Kansas/ Houston- under 46.5 Houston has been staying in games with a very good defense. Kansas has also played well defensively most of the time, but their offense has disappointed. Both teams will run the ball a lot. Jalon Daniels has not been that effective in mid and long range passes, and Houston's pass defense is especially good.

Georgia +5 I might be getting suckered into this play, but Georgia will be easily the best offense that Texas has faced. Gerogia is battle tested, and might have lost focus 2H last week vs. MSU looking ahead. Texas has played an easy schedule, and off their Red River game, so should be a tight contest. Georgia has proven themselves in big games.

 

[monte97]

Thanks for the picks and write ups ofred. Arkansas st is on the road not at home. Does that change your thinking at all?

 

[ofred]

Thanks for the picks and write ups ofred. Arkansas st is on the road not at home. Does that change your thinking at all?

Damn, I'm slipping. No wonder the spread looked so tempting. Gonna ride with it, but yeah that would have changed my thinking. S. Miss still has nothing at QB.

 

[indiana]

Fred.......here's to a solid winning weekend buddy.........
enjoy the games........indy

 

[tsolrosenberg]

Great job Fred.

 

[phokingood]

How come Unconn is a dog now?

 

[Mofome2]

How come Unconn is a dog now?

Uconn qb playing?