Week 8 Muffin--Plays

[muffinman]

Ok guys, last week we started to get in a bit of a grove, cashing easy with the play-of-month (a&m) as well as a few 7*(Tenny, Cal, LSU). Let's keep it rolling this week. There are a few that jumped right out at me yesterday:

10* Cal -14
This team is sooo good. They game 5 yds away from beating the best team in the country. And I think if they play that game 9 more times, Cal wins at least 8.
-Cal is 12-4-1 ats vs. UCLA since '87
-Cal is 8-2-1 ats off straight-up loss under Tedford
-Cal's avg. marg. of victory is 26.2ppg (allowing for an easy cover over UCLA)
-UCLA is a DEPLORABLE 9-20-1 ats on the road L30 in the Pac10
-REVENGE: Cal lost LY 20-23--Payback
Main reason I love Cal this weekend: DEFENSE ---Cal is the 5th ranked def. in yds/game allowed (247.5 --including the potent USC Off.)
---UCLA is ranked 91st in this same category (415.4) which isn't good considering Cal's offense averages 510.2 yds/game (#2)

10* Texas a&m +8
I am on this team again this week. I think that they are certainly heading in the right direction after a big win on the road LW @ IoSt. They put up 34 pts against an IoSt team that is ranked #34th in yds allowed and that yields only 25.6ppg. Okst defense is ranked #45th in yds allowed and yields only 13.8ppg. However, Okst has played NOBODY! The offenses they have faced thus far are:
IoSt #104
Tulsa #103
SMU #99
Colorado #73
a&m is ranked #21, which will be the first team that Okst will face that is ranked in the top70. They will be in for a shock. A&M has been clicking on offense lately. LW game was put out of reach early, or they probablt could have scored 50 on Iost.
-REVENGE: a&m lost LY 38-10 in College Station. They want nothing more than to return this favor against the undefeated, one-deminsional, over-hyped Cowboys.



7* Purdue -6 1/2
This team, like Cal, is just plain good. They are well balanced on both sides of the ball. The key to this game is can PU defense shutdown Wiskey's running game, if so it will be a long day for the Badgers, b/c their passing attack is nonexisting (135.5 yds/game). And with a rushD allowing only 2.44yds/rush I think PU can certainly slow down Wiskey, and we all know that PU can score with the best of them.
-PU is 20-6-2 ats in BIG10 home games under Tiller
-PU is 7-1-1 ats L9 "Homecoming" games


Also looking @ NCst +3, UVA +3, Louisville +10, & UWV -6 1/2

I feel another BIG WEEK coming on. :think: :aktion033

 

[ProphetablePicks]

i agree that Cal is very good but I dont think they would beat USC 8/9 times played. good luck.

 

[wvgolfeer]

Hey Muffin, who's this UWV you speak of?

I'm not jumping your case, just letting you know before you say it in front of some of the diehards. We're WVU and not the UWV. I do like your plays though. Good luck on another good week!

 

[mhk]

I don't know if its a good or bad thing Muffinman, but I like all of your sides..

 

[muffinman]

WVgolfer, my apologies. Just typing to fast. I do like your squad this Weds. And I am a UCONN grad. This is just too much pressure for this young Huskie team. They pulled off the win on national TV vs. Pitt, but they are aweful this year. WVU is looking to release some agression after there national title hopes were pretty much shot two weeks ago. They can still win the BigEast and run the table, and then who knows what could happen. I certainly think they will have the focus (and we know they have the talent) this week for a BIG win.

Prophet I may have been exagerating a bit, but not much.

Mhk, we will be vistorious this week!!!! :aktion033 :aktion033

 

[BoomBoom92]

Muffin,

Oklahoma State also played UCLA. They're offense is pretty good.

 

[muffinman]

Boom,
Okst's offense is definitely good, but it is very 1-deminsional. They run, run, and run some more. And if a&m can shut that down (which I believe they can--allowing 2.88yds/rush) than it will be a long day for Okst.

 

[BoomBoom92]

It's tough for me with Oklahoma St since they're my alma matter. I have season tickets and go to all the games. Vegas has definitely been off of them this year. They are 4-1 ATS covering all those games EASILY by double figures. Early money is on A&M as the line is down to 7.

As for Okla St being a running team, yes we definitely focus on the run as Vernand Morency is currently leading the nation in rushing, but Donovan Woods our QB has been progressing nicely. Last week vs Colorado he went 11-14 for 194 yards and 3 TD's. We are also +15 in turnover margin this season with 17 takeaways to only 2 giveaways. We have been tough at home recently and this will be a 6pm CST kick on Fox Sports Southwest plus it's homecoming. It'll be a real jacked up crowd and A&M's first real road test since Utah. Hope the information helps.

Good Luck

 

[muffinman]

Boom,

I appreciate the feedback. I agree that Vegas has been off on Okst this year, this is exactly why I think this line is too high. I think Vegas is overcompensating for the 4-1 ats record. They are thinking Okst is better than they are, giving an equally talented a&m squad 7 points ( I got it @ 8). They may certainly win this game, but I don't think by more than a TD.
And you talk about a&m's first "real test," isn't this Okst's first "real test?" Ya they played UCLA, but that was the 1st game of the year, and I think UCLA is a much different team since that game. And since that game, Okst has played nobody!!!
BOL, my friend....my the best, most focused team win!:howdy:

 

[BoomBoom92]

I agree our schedule thus far hasn't been anything special, but winning at Colorado 42-14 says something to me. It's not the easiest place to play. Missouri only beat Colorado 17-9 at their place. I wouldn't take away from the UCLA win. It was the first game for us too with a Freshman QB starting his 1st game and we hammered them as an underdog.



Either way good luck, I like Okla St by at least 7 but again heart is involved here so go with your own instincts.

 

[muffinman]

Added for sat.:

7* NC State +3

NCstate is more experienced(17 RS vs. 9 RS), has a better defense (ranked 3rd vs. 29th) and has a 2year REVENGE vendeta. I'll take the 3 pts.
-Dog is 15-3-1 SU in this matchup
-Maryland won L2Y w/ game-winning FG
-NC State is 9-0 as away dog under Fridge

7* Utah -20 1/2

Simply too much offense (#12th) for UNC's deplorable Defense (#112th)
-Utah 6-1 ats as homefav under Meyer
-Utah 8-3 su & ats after bye week

*7 Missouri +14

This is a great spot for Mizzo. They see they can win the Big 12 south, but to do so they need to defeat their foes from the B12North. Texas is coming into this game licking their wounds with their heads down after another tough lose to Oklahoma. That was their GOY, while this is Mizzo's GOY. I think this is way too many points to be giving a talented Mizzo team with a solid defense.
2 trends scare me----UT is 11-2 off su loss, and 5-0 su & ats after Oklahoma game L5Y
- Mizzo is 8-1 ats vs. Big 12 North L9
- Mizzo is 4-0 as Dog Ly, and 2-0 as away Dog


*5 Ohio State -1

I just can't see this team losing 3 in a row. Plus the REVENGE factor, losing 10-19 LY.
-OSU 4-1 ats off SU loss
-OSU is 10-1-1 SU & 10-2 ats @ Iowa since '74
-Iowa is 1-6 ats L7 off a bye


May have a few more tomorrow, leaning towards the points tonight, but really wrapped up in this Sox/Yankees series. May pass on TCU. Over looks awfully inticing also.

BOL, my friends :howdy:

 

[DanTanna]

Muffin,
I like your card. We're on the same side on alot of those.
Good luck to you this weekend!

 

[muffinman]

Thanks DT, BOL to you my friend :aktion033 :aktion033 :aktion033

 

[Cubsmac]

*5 Ohio State -1

I just can't see this team losing 3 in a row. Plus the REVENGE factor, losing 10-19 LY.

If their is any revenge factor, it points towards the Hawkeyes, as Iowa was the team that lost 19-10 last year in Columbus. Just thought you would like to know that the revenge factor theory was not correct. Although, Ohio State does have a current 8 game winning streak against the hawkeyes. I am a huge Iowa fan, so I may be biased, but I see this game going right down to the wire. Ohio State has a history of winning the close ones, atleast up until the last couple weeks. Hopefully the Hawkeyes can pull it out. Anyways, best of luck on the rest of your card.

 

[muffinman]

Cubs,

My bad, you are right with the revenge factor, still love OSU. Very confused about the line movement?????
BOL, my friend:howdy: