Week 7

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CFB: [+31.07 Units]
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I'm trying to keep this play as low-key as possible as my first registered Rutgers play of the season blew up in my face (Navy).

Most of you who know me know that most of my standard plays are in the 1.00*-5.00* range, but I usually go for a little more gravy on my Rutgers plays as I feel as though I have as good a read as any on that team since I try to follow them on a day-to-day basis, and usually watch each week's game at least 2 times the week after (if I can stomach it).

I have built my Rutgers record up to 26-8 lifetime in my 3 years here on The Rx, and have won by betting both for an against Rutgers, trying to be as objective as possible although I must admit I have probably bet ON Rutgers at least 65% of the time; hence most of my 8 losses. But hey, I'm human and 21 years old, I do the best I can.

Here is how I'm doing with Rutgers in 2008.

Fresno State

No registered play

Advised if I had a gun to my head I liked Fresno State ATS (CORRECT) and the Under (CORRECT).

North Carolina

No registered play

Advised if I had a gun to my head I liked Rutgers ATS (INCORRECT).

Navy

16.50* - Rutgers (-3.5) NAVY (16.50/15.00) - (LOSS).

Morgan State

5.50* - RUTGERS (-27.5) Morgan State (5.50/5.00) - (WIN).

West Virginia

No registered play on The Rx although I did actually put a small amount of money on Rutgers +14 and won.

Advised before the lines were released that I was planning on playing West Virginia on the ML and maybe ATS if the line was around -7 due to the fact that I did not think Rutgers could win the game outright (CORRECT).

Advised after the lines were released that I think Rutgers was undervalued, and that the 14 point spread was a little too much for West Virginia (CORRECT).

Cincinnati

18.00* - Rutgers (+10) CINCINNATI (-120) (18.00/15.00)

Unfortunately my buddy told me that the line actually was +10 at BetCRIS for about 15-20 minutes after it was first released, and then he layed down about 30% of his bankroll on it. By the time I got home to bet it last night it had already dropped to +9.5. Thus, I bought the 1/2 point to make it the even +10 since I was going to be putting THE NEW LARGEST BET ON A SINGLE PLAY THAT I HAVE EVER MADE IN MY LIFE.

Analysis:

Usually I spend pages and pages breaking down the games, but in this case I don't have much. To me its simple, Cincinnati is down to their 3rd string QB, and in Brian Kelly's eyes their 4th due to the fact that the Bearcats were unable to swindle a 6th year of eligability for Ben Mauk. Chazz Anderson to me looked like a QB that could be forced into multiple turnovers if facing a defense of Rutgers' caliber (albeit not a juggarnaut) with a coach like Greg Schiano setting up the game plan. While the Bearcats rolled against a Marshall team that look hopelessly outclassed against the Cincinnati defense, Rutgers was trying to find a way to salvage their season by coming within 40 yards of overtime in Morgantown. Rutgers played the Mountaineers tough, and held RB Noel Devine in check for the entire game. The Scarlet Knights played inspired football, but once again, missed opportunities as witnessed in 6 dropped passes halted Rutgers from coming away with their 2nd victory of the season. In the 24-17 loss, Rutgers played its best football to date, and over the past 2 games QB Mike Teel has since returned to his normal "average" self.

Now I am not sitting here predicting a Rutgers victory against a Cincinnati team that has certainly had their number over the past 2 years, but I don't have to. The Cincinnati defense is good, real good. But I do not see the Bearcats running away with this one with Chazz Anderson at the helm. To me, over the past 2 weeks Rutgers has played like the type of team that I expected to see this season. Unfortunately for Rutgers the season is already almost halfway over and they will need to go 6-1 down the stretch to lock into their 4th straight bowl game.

But what I will tell you is that this is a Rutgers team that at this second I feel has a 50/50 shot to beat Cincinnati in Cincinnati this coming Saturday. Call me a homer, call me what you want, I have to admit it, I am a homer. I am the biggest Rutgers fan there is out here in New Jersey, and I warn you all to be prepared in fear of me looking through this game through scarlet colored glasses.

But again, I think Rutgers has a real good shot at beating Cincinnati now that Pike and Grutza are out. Anderson didn't show me much against Marshall as the defense and special teams basically put the Bearcats' first 19 points on the board for them.

Now Rutgers doesn't even have to win the game for us all to toast our glasses in the air, they just can't lose by more than 10. In my opinion I don't think they do barring a garbage TD in the 4th Quarter, but that is the risk I will take. I was impressed that Rutgers was able to continue to answer the bell against West Virgnia last week after falling down 17-3 late 2nd Quarter and 24-10 late 3rd Quarter. Down 24-17 with 2:00 left in the 4th Quarter, the Rutgers defense held West Virginia on a 4th and 1 to get the ball back only to see the offense lose the ball on downs around the West Virginia 40 yard line.

Lets face it, Teel was not made out of the same "clutch" mold that his New York Giant counterpart Eli Manning was. Last year Teel drove Rutgers the length of the field with under 2:00 left down 28-23 against Cincinnati before throwing an INT inside the 15 yard line. But again, we don't need a Rutgers win to win this game ourselves, thus give me Rutgers +10 and lets toast to a victory, and hopefully straight up victory.

In my opinion this is a very live dog here. GL to all.
 

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This line is -7.5 at the greek and many other spots. Your line is not a usable one even if buying points. GL
 

CFB: [+31.07 Units]
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Wow when did that happen? I just checked it again yesterday afternoon at it was still +9, +9.5 everywhere. Now I wake up this morning and it seems it is +7.5 everywhere except SportsBetting.com where it is still +9 at least.

In that case I guess I will have to say that I still like the game at +7.5, but would buy it up to +8 myself.

Good thing I played that 2 days ago and didn't waver on it or I would have been left out in the cold.

GL
 

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betjammer

In that case I guess I will have to say that I still like the game at +7.5, but would buy it up to +8 myself.
I have already bought it down to 7

Enjoy the game

<table width="650"><tbody><tr><td>Wager Type:</td><td>Spread (or run line)</td></tr><tr><td>Wager Status:</td><td>Pending</td></tr><tr><td>Risk / To Win Amount:</td><td> (USD) Accepted 10/7/2008 3:18 AM - EST</td></tr><tr><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>Sport / Period:</td><td>College Football / Game </td></tr><tr><td>Line:
</td><td>Cincinnati U 10/11/2008 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
-7 -120</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>* Game Notes:</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

CFB: [+31.07 Units]
Joined
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Adding:

3.00* - Texas (+7) Oklahoma (3.00/2.50)

Also, really like Air Force this week. Looking to see if I can get it at -10 for least amount of juice possible.
 

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scarlet knights are an absolute joke this year. today's performance is comical
 

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Nice call Jay. Rutgers is TERRIBLE but they did get the cover.
 

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Eh, I wouldn't call them terrible. They have covered by a TD or more ATS 3 weeks in a row. Basically they had a very easy OOC shedule in 2006 and 2007 which help them pad their record during those seasons. As witnessed from their (3-4) Big East record in 2007, the Big East as a conference has also caught up to Rutgers over the past 2 years.

Fresno State, North Carolina, Navy, West Virginia, and Cincinnati have a combined record of 22-8. This has been a much different schedule than the Buffalo, Howard, and Ohio's of the world Rutgers faced in 2006 and 2007. This Rutgers team is not terrible, they just were grossly overrated during the latter part of 2006 and into 2007. Now Rutgers has been exposed for exactly who they are, an average Big East football team.

Rutgers had opportunities to win this game, many of them. Their defense played solid and held Cincinnati to 0-11 on 3rd Downs for the game. The offense is still just a work in progress. This marked the second straight week the offense did not turn the ball over, but once again each facet of the offense seems to take turns making mistakes. First the OL will miss a block and leave the statue of a QB in Teel like a sitting duck. On the next play Teel will miss a wide open WR. On the next play Teel will hit the WR in stride, only to have the pass dropped. Over the past 4 weeks I have counted at least 21 dropped passes by WR's. Yes, 21 dropped passes. The only facet of the offense that has been consistent has been the RB's, who have not made it a habit to put the ball on the ground nor turn it over, and have done the best job that they could out there. Amazing, and we thought replacing Ray Rice would be the only problem facing the offense. But right now it is a group effort which has made Rutgers 1-5. The OL, the WR's, the QB.

However, I still believe they are underachieving, and seem to have the talent to be better than their 1-5 record. I have played on Rutgers 3 weeks in a row, and will likely play on Rutgers again if they open up as a home dog next week during homecoming vs Connecticut and another backup QB. Rutgers isn't getting blown out here, they just have not been able to put it all together yet, and if they open up as say a 4 point underdog against Connecticut this week, I would advise again to play on Rutgers.
 

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Eh, I wouldn't call them terrible. They have covered by a TD or more ATS 3 weeks in a row. Basically they had a very easy OOC shedule in 2006 and 2007 which help them pad their record during those seasons. As witnessed from their (3-4) Big East record in 2007, the Big East as a conference has also caught up to Rutgers over the past 2 years.

Fresno State, North Carolina, Navy, West Virginia, and Cincinnati have a combined record of 22-8. This has been a much different schedule than the Buffalo, Howard, and Ohio's of the world Rutgers faced in 2006 and 2007. This Rutgers team is not terrible, they just were grossly overrated during the latter part of 2006 and into 2007. Now Rutgers has been exposed for exactly who they are, an average Big East football team.

Rutgers had opportunities to win this game, many of them. Their defense played solid and held Cincinnati to 0-11 on 3rd Downs for the game. The offense is still just a work in progress. This marked the second straight week the offense did not turn the ball over, but once again each facet of the offense seems to take turns making mistakes. First the OL will miss a block and leave the statue of a QB in Teel like a sitting duck. On the next play Teel will miss a wide open WR. On the next play Teel will hit the WR in stride, only to have the pass dropped. Over the past 4 weeks I have counted at least 21 dropped passes by WR's. Yes, 21 dropped passes. The only facet of the offense that has been consistent has been the RB's, who have not made it a habit to put the ball on the ground nor turn it over, and have done the best job that they could out there. Amazing, and we thought replacing Ray Rice would be the only problem facing the offense. But right now it is a group effort which has made Rutgers 1-5. The OL, the WR's, the QB.

However, I still believe they are underachieving, and seem to have the talent to be better than their 1-5 record. I have played on Rutgers 3 weeks in a row, and will likely play on Rutgers again if they open up as a home dog next week during homecoming vs Connecticut and another backup QB. Rutgers isn't getting blown out here, they just have not been able to put it all together yet, and if they open up as say a 4 point underdog against Connecticut this week, I would advise again to play on Rutgers.


:homer:
 

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