I'm trying to keep this play as low-key as possible as my first registered Rutgers play of the season blew up in my face (Navy).
Most of you who know me know that most of my standard plays are in the 1.00*-5.00* range, but I usually go for a little more gravy on my Rutgers plays as I feel as though I have as good a read as any on that team since I try to follow them on a day-to-day basis, and usually watch each week's game at least 2 times the week after (if I can stomach it).
I have built my Rutgers record up to 26-8 lifetime in my 3 years here on The Rx, and have won by betting both for an against Rutgers, trying to be as objective as possible although I must admit I have probably bet ON Rutgers at least 65% of the time; hence most of my 8 losses. But hey, I'm human and 21 years old, I do the best I can.
Here is how I'm doing with Rutgers in 2008.
Fresno State
No registered play
Advised if I had a gun to my head I liked Fresno State ATS (CORRECT) and the Under (CORRECT).
North Carolina
No registered play
Advised if I had a gun to my head I liked Rutgers ATS (INCORRECT).
Navy
16.50* - Rutgers (-3.5) NAVY (16.50/15.00) - (LOSS).
Morgan State
5.50* - RUTGERS (-27.5) Morgan State (5.50/5.00) - (WIN).
West Virginia
No registered play on The Rx although I did actually put a small amount of money on Rutgers +14 and won.
Advised before the lines were released that I was planning on playing West Virginia on the ML and maybe ATS if the line was around -7 due to the fact that I did not think Rutgers could win the game outright (CORRECT).
Advised after the lines were released that I think Rutgers was undervalued, and that the 14 point spread was a little too much for West Virginia (CORRECT).
Cincinnati
18.00* - Rutgers (+10) CINCINNATI (-120) (18.00/15.00)
Unfortunately my buddy told me that the line actually was +10 at BetCRIS for about 15-20 minutes after it was first released, and then he layed down about 30% of his bankroll on it. By the time I got home to bet it last night it had already dropped to +9.5. Thus, I bought the 1/2 point to make it the even +10 since I was going to be putting THE NEW LARGEST BET ON A SINGLE PLAY THAT I HAVE EVER MADE IN MY LIFE.
Analysis:
Usually I spend pages and pages breaking down the games, but in this case I don't have much. To me its simple, Cincinnati is down to their 3rd string QB, and in Brian Kelly's eyes their 4th due to the fact that the Bearcats were unable to swindle a 6th year of eligability for Ben Mauk. Chazz Anderson to me looked like a QB that could be forced into multiple turnovers if facing a defense of Rutgers' caliber (albeit not a juggarnaut) with a coach like Greg Schiano setting up the game plan. While the Bearcats rolled against a Marshall team that look hopelessly outclassed against the Cincinnati defense, Rutgers was trying to find a way to salvage their season by coming within 40 yards of overtime in Morgantown. Rutgers played the Mountaineers tough, and held RB Noel Devine in check for the entire game. The Scarlet Knights played inspired football, but once again, missed opportunities as witnessed in 6 dropped passes halted Rutgers from coming away with their 2nd victory of the season. In the 24-17 loss, Rutgers played its best football to date, and over the past 2 games QB Mike Teel has since returned to his normal "average" self.
Now I am not sitting here predicting a Rutgers victory against a Cincinnati team that has certainly had their number over the past 2 years, but I don't have to. The Cincinnati defense is good, real good. But I do not see the Bearcats running away with this one with Chazz Anderson at the helm. To me, over the past 2 weeks Rutgers has played like the type of team that I expected to see this season. Unfortunately for Rutgers the season is already almost halfway over and they will need to go 6-1 down the stretch to lock into their 4th straight bowl game.
But what I will tell you is that this is a Rutgers team that at this second I feel has a 50/50 shot to beat Cincinnati in Cincinnati this coming Saturday. Call me a homer, call me what you want, I have to admit it, I am a homer. I am the biggest Rutgers fan there is out here in New Jersey, and I warn you all to be prepared in fear of me looking through this game through scarlet colored glasses.
But again, I think Rutgers has a real good shot at beating Cincinnati now that Pike and Grutza are out. Anderson didn't show me much against Marshall as the defense and special teams basically put the Bearcats' first 19 points on the board for them.
Now Rutgers doesn't even have to win the game for us all to toast our glasses in the air, they just can't lose by more than 10. In my opinion I don't think they do barring a garbage TD in the 4th Quarter, but that is the risk I will take. I was impressed that Rutgers was able to continue to answer the bell against West Virgnia last week after falling down 17-3 late 2nd Quarter and 24-10 late 3rd Quarter. Down 24-17 with 2:00 left in the 4th Quarter, the Rutgers defense held West Virginia on a 4th and 1 to get the ball back only to see the offense lose the ball on downs around the West Virginia 40 yard line.
Lets face it, Teel was not made out of the same "clutch" mold that his New York Giant counterpart Eli Manning was. Last year Teel drove Rutgers the length of the field with under 2:00 left down 28-23 against Cincinnati before throwing an INT inside the 15 yard line. But again, we don't need a Rutgers win to win this game ourselves, thus give me Rutgers +10 and lets toast to a victory, and hopefully straight up victory.
In my opinion this is a very live dog here. GL to all.
Most of you who know me know that most of my standard plays are in the 1.00*-5.00* range, but I usually go for a little more gravy on my Rutgers plays as I feel as though I have as good a read as any on that team since I try to follow them on a day-to-day basis, and usually watch each week's game at least 2 times the week after (if I can stomach it).
I have built my Rutgers record up to 26-8 lifetime in my 3 years here on The Rx, and have won by betting both for an against Rutgers, trying to be as objective as possible although I must admit I have probably bet ON Rutgers at least 65% of the time; hence most of my 8 losses. But hey, I'm human and 21 years old, I do the best I can.
Here is how I'm doing with Rutgers in 2008.
Fresno State
No registered play
Advised if I had a gun to my head I liked Fresno State ATS (CORRECT) and the Under (CORRECT).
North Carolina
No registered play
Advised if I had a gun to my head I liked Rutgers ATS (INCORRECT).
Navy
16.50* - Rutgers (-3.5) NAVY (16.50/15.00) - (LOSS).
Morgan State
5.50* - RUTGERS (-27.5) Morgan State (5.50/5.00) - (WIN).
West Virginia
No registered play on The Rx although I did actually put a small amount of money on Rutgers +14 and won.
Advised before the lines were released that I was planning on playing West Virginia on the ML and maybe ATS if the line was around -7 due to the fact that I did not think Rutgers could win the game outright (CORRECT).
Advised after the lines were released that I think Rutgers was undervalued, and that the 14 point spread was a little too much for West Virginia (CORRECT).
Cincinnati
18.00* - Rutgers (+10) CINCINNATI (-120) (18.00/15.00)
Unfortunately my buddy told me that the line actually was +10 at BetCRIS for about 15-20 minutes after it was first released, and then he layed down about 30% of his bankroll on it. By the time I got home to bet it last night it had already dropped to +9.5. Thus, I bought the 1/2 point to make it the even +10 since I was going to be putting THE NEW LARGEST BET ON A SINGLE PLAY THAT I HAVE EVER MADE IN MY LIFE.
Analysis:
Usually I spend pages and pages breaking down the games, but in this case I don't have much. To me its simple, Cincinnati is down to their 3rd string QB, and in Brian Kelly's eyes their 4th due to the fact that the Bearcats were unable to swindle a 6th year of eligability for Ben Mauk. Chazz Anderson to me looked like a QB that could be forced into multiple turnovers if facing a defense of Rutgers' caliber (albeit not a juggarnaut) with a coach like Greg Schiano setting up the game plan. While the Bearcats rolled against a Marshall team that look hopelessly outclassed against the Cincinnati defense, Rutgers was trying to find a way to salvage their season by coming within 40 yards of overtime in Morgantown. Rutgers played the Mountaineers tough, and held RB Noel Devine in check for the entire game. The Scarlet Knights played inspired football, but once again, missed opportunities as witnessed in 6 dropped passes halted Rutgers from coming away with their 2nd victory of the season. In the 24-17 loss, Rutgers played its best football to date, and over the past 2 games QB Mike Teel has since returned to his normal "average" self.
Now I am not sitting here predicting a Rutgers victory against a Cincinnati team that has certainly had their number over the past 2 years, but I don't have to. The Cincinnati defense is good, real good. But I do not see the Bearcats running away with this one with Chazz Anderson at the helm. To me, over the past 2 weeks Rutgers has played like the type of team that I expected to see this season. Unfortunately for Rutgers the season is already almost halfway over and they will need to go 6-1 down the stretch to lock into their 4th straight bowl game.
But what I will tell you is that this is a Rutgers team that at this second I feel has a 50/50 shot to beat Cincinnati in Cincinnati this coming Saturday. Call me a homer, call me what you want, I have to admit it, I am a homer. I am the biggest Rutgers fan there is out here in New Jersey, and I warn you all to be prepared in fear of me looking through this game through scarlet colored glasses.
But again, I think Rutgers has a real good shot at beating Cincinnati now that Pike and Grutza are out. Anderson didn't show me much against Marshall as the defense and special teams basically put the Bearcats' first 19 points on the board for them.
Now Rutgers doesn't even have to win the game for us all to toast our glasses in the air, they just can't lose by more than 10. In my opinion I don't think they do barring a garbage TD in the 4th Quarter, but that is the risk I will take. I was impressed that Rutgers was able to continue to answer the bell against West Virgnia last week after falling down 17-3 late 2nd Quarter and 24-10 late 3rd Quarter. Down 24-17 with 2:00 left in the 4th Quarter, the Rutgers defense held West Virginia on a 4th and 1 to get the ball back only to see the offense lose the ball on downs around the West Virginia 40 yard line.
Lets face it, Teel was not made out of the same "clutch" mold that his New York Giant counterpart Eli Manning was. Last year Teel drove Rutgers the length of the field with under 2:00 left down 28-23 against Cincinnati before throwing an INT inside the 15 yard line. But again, we don't need a Rutgers win to win this game ourselves, thus give me Rutgers +10 and lets toast to a victory, and hopefully straight up victory.
In my opinion this is a very live dog here. GL to all.