Week 7

[ofred]

Last week:
4-1 on large plays, missed a push on Duke by 1/2 (my bad). 3-4 small plays

This play is on the light side of large:

NMSU +20.5 Jacksonville State is off two easy wins vs. Kennesaw and S. Miss. Those two are about as bad as FBS teams can be. But Jacksonville St. is also the same team that was beat up by Louisville and CCU, and lost to EMU. Like many Group pf 5 teams they were raided in the transfer portal by the better colleges- and NMSU too. JS lost a lot of talent defensively and offensively, although their new QB has looked good last 2 games. I just think NMSU has enough offense, and somewhat balanced, that they can make a game of it. The Gamecocks IMO are not good enough to win another game by 20+.

 

[ofred]

Glad that was on the light side of large. NMSU really got punked.

Small:
Utah -3 (-122) I doubt that Cam Rising will play, although there are rumors he might. This goes in the category of "forget what you saw last week", as ASU coming off their best win and Utah losing at home. I still like the Utes here even with Isaac Wilson at QB. He's played fairly well for a freshman, although his picks have hurt. I also think ASU is a tad overrated and that their QB, Leavitt, might also be in that category. Like Utah's better D and think they respond well here after a loss. The ASU defense is suspect.

Utah St. +19 Also in the forget last week category. UNLV is coming off an OT loss to Syracuse and emotional win over Fresno. Now on the road to a team they might feel overconfident with. High elevation and a team with a pretty dynamic offense in Utah State. Utah St. is playing for whatever pride they have, and I think they'll hang around for most of the game. despite losing by 30 to Boise last week, they were only out gained by about 80 yards. And UNLV's defense is not all that good in pass coverage.

 

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Large:
Toledo -9.5 If UB can beat NIU, can't they upset Toledo- at home for god sakes?? NIU really dominated that game, but somehow managed to throw it away. Buffalo has a really bad offense, running or passing the ball. They don't have very good fan support so I expect a good number of Toledo fans to be there. Toledo, along with NIU and Bowling Green, are the best of the MAC- despite what their records are. Toledo has 2 go-to receivers along with a dual threat QB that is getting better each week.

Army -25.5 (-111) This one just feels too automatic. It's just that UAB is just a mess under Trent Dilfer. It was a bad hire, UAB lost their better players to the portal, and now they go on the road to play a team that will wear down their weak defense. Not sure who the UAB QB will be, but Army's defense has been exceptionally good this season- shutting down running games of their opponents. They also have an edge on special teams. UAB will have to hit some long passes to cover this spread.

Small:
Iowa -2.5 UW is playing their 7th game in 7 weeks, and on the road vs. a physical team with a good D and a decent run game. Not a lot of trust in Cade McNamara, but he is playing for his job. Gonna play this as a letdown game for the Huskies and a must win for Iowa.

Wake Forest +21 (-117) Wake has an offense, and Clemson's defense is good but not great. Clemson has looked a whole lot better since their beatdown to Georgia. I expect them to win, but they have struggled with Wake the last 2 seasons- barely winning. I'll give Dave Clawson credit- he really gets his team prepared to win(not just compete), even vs. superior opponents. This would be that type of game for some surprises.

 

[ofred]

Also large:

South Carolina +21.5 Going contrarian here, as most football bettors have to be thinking Alabama takes it out on SC after their loss to Vanderbilt. But except for a great 1st half vs. Georgia, Alabama hasn't impressed. They are just not Bama of old where they can dominate on defense and win by 30 points half the time. Their game at Vandy wasn't a fluke, as was their near collapse vs. Georgia. South Carolina has issues, penalties being one of them, but they won easily at Kentucky, played LSU tight, and in their loss to Ole Miss wasn't as bad as the score indicated. Alabama fans know better than me, but it seems that Milroe is an outsized part of their success, but the skill guys are not as good as in the past, and the secondary and defense are struggling far too often.

 

[JohnnyMags]

Good Luck

 

[indiana]

Fred.....BOL with your action buddy.....
solid looking plays.......indy

 

[ofred]

Thanks Indy and Mags.
Healthy Large;

Ohio State -3 I've watched this Oregon team enough to see why they will lose this game, and maybe just end up with 2-3 losses this season. They haven't played even a reasonably good defense yet. MSU was physical enough, but they seemed to be subbing very little and got worn down. Also, their offense and Aidan Chiles kept putting MSU in poor field position. Dillon Gabriel is about 5'10" and looks a bit out of sorts at times. Has thrown some risky passes that were intercepted or should have been. His interior OL has been inconsistent. Ohio State will be the first team the Ducks will have played that has excellent pas covergae in the secondary. Oregon's D is pretty good, but in their only test, Boise put up 34 on them. I don't think this will be an easy win for OSU, but 3 is a nice number.

Pitt -3 Glad I waited for this one to also come down to 3. Cal is traveling east after a huge almost upset over Miami. I like this Cal team, but I think this can be one of those games where your young players have had a little too much travel, and don't perform on the field as well because of it. I'm also not sold on the Cal QB, Mendoza. He looks a little like a deer in headlights. Cal was also outplayed by Miami. Pitt's new OC Kade Bell has made me a believer in their new offense, and that they can be unpredictable when defending. Jaydn Ott might play for Cal but is likely not 100%.

 

[ofred]

Large:

Nevada +3.5 (-114) Oregon State just has too many injuries, and now playing a road game vs. a team that has played competitively every game(save one) with a better QB. Nevada wins this one. Brenden Lewis has played very well as a dual threat, with experience, and a pretty good supporting cast. The Beavers are due for a poor game after a double OT game last week.

FAU +6 (-115) UNT has over the years been in this exact spot. Scoring a bunch of points, playing bad defense, and going on the road. FAU is better offensively than they've played, and with a pretty good defense. They are playing for their season here. Like Nevada, I think they win this one...if FAU pressures Chandler Morris. Morris has had injury issues and 2 knee operations and has become less of a dual threat.

 

[ofred]

Small:
Stanford +22.5 Notre Dame dominated Purdue, but other than that game, they haven't been quite what we expected. They could have lost to Louisville as they were out yarded by more than 100, and their loss to NIU wasn't a complete fluke. Riley Leonard has the wheels, but the ND passing game has been mediocre. Stanford gets Ashton Daniels back at QB, and their run defense has been decent. If Stanford shows up early, this game could be close.

Kansas St -3 (-120) Like K State in too many games, but I think they win here. Colorado still has a leaky OL, and a defense that will struggle to defend K State's run game. Lots of admiration for what Chris Klieman gets out of his talent, while Sanders is a little too much of a personality to be a consistently winning football coach. Nebraska showed the playbook on how to defend Colorado. Got a sense that Colorado's season goes from 4-1 to about 5-4.

 

[authorbytrade]

Nice write-ups,
with you on Army, Wake Forest, Kansas St., and will probably join on Stanford if the line does not crash.

Best wishes.

 

[noles]

GL

 

[ofred]

Small:
Arizona +3 BYU has been lucky to remain undefeated. Their QB is kind of turnover prone, and they don't run the ball that well. Defensively they are better than expected, but not stout like some other Big 12 teams. They feasted on K State turnovers to win, and have a couple of squeakers. Arizona should be able to score on them fairly often, and are a nice balanced offense. Even the 3 points could come into play.

Large:
WSU -3 (-125) The Cougs got crushed by Boise's Ashton Jeanty, but then again so has every team. Otherwise, Wazzu has played pretty well this season. Fresno is no longer feared in the Mt. West. Poor run game, weak defense, and not the home field advantage of the past. It's not just Fresno's big loss to UNLV, it is also the 485 yards they gave up to UNM and the 469 yards to Sacramento State.

 

[ofred]

Lastly, small:

UNM -6.5 Air Force just has nothing going for it, even their usual great running game is not there. Offense rules here, and even though UNM has a pretty weak D, it's good enough against an AF team that is lucky to score 10-14 points.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....continue your winning ways this weekend buddy.....
thank you for the write ups.....indy

 

[JBS39]

GL Fred!