Week 7

[ofred]

That Maryland push just screwed me last week. They had an easy FG right before the 1st half, but ran a play, and time ran out. Then they forgot to show up for the 4th quarter...

YTD: 27-27, -5.63 units Still not in the hole too much.

1* ECU +12 SMU is definitely not as dynamic offensively this year, and Preston Stone is better than serviceable, but not much better. ECU is a young team that has some talent on both sides of the ball. They've been penalized a lot, and made other mistakes that young teams make. But they are off a bye, at home, and this being the great prideful game of football, I expect they'll be tough to beat this week. A young team with 5 games under their belt and extra practice time. We saw it last week with Oklahoma State.

 

[indiana]

Fred....here's to a solid weekend of winners buddy....
BOL tonight......on them with you.......indy

 

[ofred]

Totals:

4* UCLA/ Oregon State - under 54 I cannot see how this game gets to 54. The Beavers have not played anyone remotely this good defensively- except Utah...and that turned into a 28 total. This game looks similar. UCLA is great swarming defense that is very solid on all levels- from the DL to the LBs to the DBs. Nevertheless, OSU will try to run the ball as that is their strength. Their OL is pretty good, but it won't have as many big plays, and yet will run the clock down. QB DJU had a good game vs. Cal last week, but that was one good game in the last 4. UCLA's QB Dante Moore is a work in progress. He hasn't really become a running QB, but runs around a lot avoiding sacks, sometimes making bad decisions. And OSU's defense is underrated, despite Cal's scoring last week. TOs or special team TDs are my concern.

3.3* Alabama/ Arkansas- over 47 These games in recent years have gone way over this number. Arkansas always seems to score vs. Bama despite being overmatched. And Alabama's defense is good, but not world class as in the past 5-10 years. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has developed as a passer, and seems to have found some go-to WRs in Burton and Bond. Arkansas' defense has been pretty poor this season, but lucky at times getting some fortunate TOs. Back door cover very possible. Hope Alabama doesn't get too vanilla.

3.3* Utah/ Cal- under 44 Utah has tried to pretend that Cam Rising is ready to play each week, but he never does play. His knee injury was very serious and it is likely he needs another month or more to play. Utah has other injuries on offense. Utah has also run about 2 to 1 run to pass plays...which should run down the clock well. Their defense though should be able to hold Cal's run game in check. Cal has switched to freshman Mendoza at QB, and I think he'll find that Rice-Eccles Stadium's crowd is gonna be radically different than the passive Cal crowd of last week.

 

[ofred]

2.7* Kansas State +1.5 Kansas State has a habit of rebounding well from a loss. This season and last. Coach Chris Klieman might be one of the most underrated coaches in the country, while Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire might be in over his head. Tech is coming off two impressive wins vs. teams that play poor run defense. But I don't trust their QB to be able to win the game if needed. Tech went 2-5 last year in the mid part of the season, and this team reminds of that one.

2.6* LSU -11 A great offense always keeps you in the game. I also believe that the LSU defense has enough young talent, and pride playing at home, to finally show something positive vs a dreadful Auburn offense. QB Thorne has had some great runs, some escapability, but as a passer, he's bad. Padded stats vs. UMass and Samford do not make this offense tolerable. They also don't run the ball well, or block with much competence.

 

[indiana]

Fred....appreciate your early thought's buddy....thank you.....
solid looking card/......
BOL with all your action....on many of these with you....indy

 

[ofred]

2.7* Kansas State +1.5 Kansas State has a habit of rebounding well from a loss. This season and last. Coach Chris Klieman might be one of the most underrated coaches in the country, while Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire might be in over his head. Tech is coming off two impressive wins vs. teams that play poor run defense. But I don't trust their QB to be able to win the game if needed. Tech went 2-5 last year in the mid part of the season, and this team reminds of that one.

2.6* LSU -11 A great offense always keeps you in the game. I also believe that the LSU defense has enough young talent, and pride playing at home, to finally show something positive vs a dreadful Auburn offense. QB Thorne has had some great runs, some escapability, but as a passer, he's bad. Padded stats vs. UMass and Samford do not make this offense tolerable. They also don't run the ball well, or block with much competence.

Upping these both to 2.9*

Cannot figure out why the Alabma/ Arkansas total has dropped to 46. All of the key injuries are on the defensive side. How does Bama not score at least 35 here?

 

[ofred]

1* Wash. State -7 (-117) Just have to take this one. Arizona is coming off two close losses to Washington and USC, but I doubt they have another good offensive performance here. The Cougars are an offensive force even though they got stymied by a great UCLA D. They are usually very tough at home. Some of the Arizona players may look at this game as anti-climatic after their earlier games. Looks like the line has come down, so I'll grab it now.

1* Wisconsin -9 Another game that I just have to take. Iowa just has almost no passing game. The WRs are there to block or decoy. They do find ways to hang around and even win games like this. But their 31-0 loss to Penn State shows what can happen when they are on the road and can only run the ball. Their OL is so-so, the running game is okay. I also think Wisconsin will only get better offensively with Tanner Mordecai and the new coaching staff under Luke Fickel. Badgers are at home, and that's got to be worth something.

 

[ofred]

1* MSU +4.5 Michigan St. has been bitten badly by turnovers, but otherwise they are playing decently on both sides of the ball. I imagine that they will work very hard on avoiding turnovers, and that turnovers tend to even out over the season. Rutgers QB Wimsatt has also been known for TOs a bit. Rytgers has had an extremely easy home schedule so far and I think they'll get tested here. Predicting an MSU upset or damn close.

1* Troy -6 How did this one get away from me? Should have taken it earlier at 4.5. Army's new offense is not producing results so far. They pass more, but not much better than previous Army teams. The run game is nothing like last year's version. And Troy has a good run defense, and a pretty good pass defense. Troy seems like a team on the rise. Army and Navy also have such poor pass defenses that Troy should be able to take advantage.

 

[JBS39]

GL Fred

 

[boomer1]

1* Troy -6 How did this one get away from me? Should have taken it earlier at 4.5. Army's new offense is not producing results so far. They pass more, but not much better than previous Army teams. The run game is nothing like last year's version. And Troy has a good run defense, and a pretty good pass defense. Troy seems like a team on the rise. Army and Navy also have such poor pass defenses that Troy should be able to take advantage.

Thanks for this pick Fred! I’m gonna be at Weat Point for this one tomorrow. These two teams never make my radar so I didn’t have an opinion till now.

 

[ofred]

And finally:

1* Illinois +13.5 Like the coaching matchup here. Locksley and the Terps make just enough stupid mistakes to keep teams like Illinois in the game. Hoping Altmeyer has one of those games, like sometimes, where he looks good without the turnovers. Should be rainy.

1* Notre Dame -2.5 Here we go again...1-1 the last 2 weeks taking ND. Last week was just awful, but maybe they were looking ahead. Caleb Willams might be the best QB in college football, but the USC defense is putrid. Can ND's offense keep Williams off the field and the uSC frustrated. I think they can. USC looks like a team that loses focus at points of a a 60 minute game. Too many guys with NFL dreams that play for the highlight films?

 

[ofred]

1* Wash. State -7 (-117) Just have to take this one. Arizona is coming off two close losses to Washington and USC, but I doubt they have another good offensive performance here. The Cougars are an offensive force even though they got stymied by a great UCLA D. They are usually very tough at home. Some of the Arizona players may look at this game as anti-climatic after their earlier games. Looks like the line has come down, so I'll grab it now.

Bumping this up to 2.3* at (-119)

Lean:
Purdue 1H +10 Ohio State has some injuries on offense...Purdue hangs around for a while.

 

[ofred]

1* Wisconsin -9 Another game that I just have to take. Iowa just has almost no passing game. The WRs are there to block or decoy. They do find ways to hang around and even win games like this. But their 31-0 loss to Penn State shows what can happen when they are on the road and can only run the ball. Their OL is so-so, the running game is okay. I also think Wisconsin will only get better offensively with Tanner Mordecai and the new coaching staff under Luke Fickel. Badgers are at home, and that's got to be worth something.

This one to 1.4*

 

[LonghornMM]

Good luck, Fred.