Play: Minnesota +3
Minnesota has won 3 of their last 4, outgaining everyone but New Orleans.They did not play well, but the defense and the special units did the job for them. Chicago has been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games. It is going to be hard for Chicago to refocus after that game in Atlanta last week. They were not supposed to win that game and when it looked like they won, M.Ryan made a miraculous throw and the rest is history.
A.Peterson seems to be back after rushing for 111 yards last week. In two games last season the Vikings outrushed the Bears 447-115. A.Peterson had 224 yards in game #1 and I expect a big effort from him tomorrow. Minnesota defense is just as good as Chicago defense if not better. Chicago defense got somewhat exposed last week by a rookie QB.
Systems of the week:
In weeks 1 to 8, home teams with the line 2/-3.5, at .500 vs same record teams are 0-17-1 ats. In weeks 1-14, home favorites after a road favorite loss are 19-40-1 ats against a team off home favorite win.
Play: Buffalo -1
There are three major reasons why I like this play.
First, it is the second East Coast game for SD in only three weeks and third road game in 4 weeks. And after playing an emotional, prime time game against New England last week, I wonder if they will be able to match Buffalo on energy level.
The second reason is bye for Buffalo. After getting embarassed by Arizona in the second of their back to back road games, the Bills are now well rested, healthier, and poised to prove that they are not 4-1 for nothing.
The third reason is the Buffalo defense. San Diego depends a lot on their offense this season, especially on P.Rivers and his passing game. Well, that's exactly the strength of this Buffalo defense.
Play: Cincinnati +10 *b 0.5*
I've said last week what happens when the public is very big on a over in a game that is not supposed to be close. This game reminds me a lot of last week's MNF game between Cleveland and NY Giants. The Steelers are getting healthier, Ben always plays well in Ohio, the Bengals are winless and so on. We will hear that all day long on every TV station. All that is true, but Cincinnati is a winless team that had a chance to win 5 of 6 games with a few breaks here and there. And now that the Rams and the Texans got their first wins, I'm sure the Bengals don't wont to go to their bye week 0-7. The effort will be there for sure, and with Pittsburgh playing the defending SuperBowl Champs last week, I can smell an upset here.
Not sure if Pittsburgh's rushing offense will produce, but the Bengals have a very solid passing defense that can make some problems for B.R. They are ranked #4 in passing yards allowed, just behind Baltimore, Carolina and Pittsburgh, which is not bad for a winless team.
R.Fitzpatrick wan't bad last week and he should get better in his second straight start, this time at home.
Systems of the week:
4 wins teams @ 0 wins teams are 1-12-1 ats last 14 and 0-9-1 last 10.
4/5 wins teams in first 10 weeks of the season are 1-17-1 ats vs winless teams if not favored by 14+. (0-15-1 ats away)
Play: Carolina -3
New Orleans is finally on the road after three straight home games, and for a team that is 0-2 on the road, this is not the best place to start a road trip. Carolina is 3-0 at home this season and in last two games they outscored the opponents 58-9. Despite playing good defense recently, this New Orleans team is stil all about offense, and this Carolina team has a defense that can stop them.
New Orleans has an amazing passing offense but Carolina is #2 against the pass, and if they can't stop them at home, than who can ?
This is a very important game for Carolina. First, it is a big revenge against NO after a big home loss to this Saints team last season, in a game without Delhomme. And second, it is a statement game for them after losing big to Tampa last week.
Play: Saint Louis +7
Dallas is really struggling right now and even with Romo playing, they are probably going to start asking themselves if they are as good as advertised, if STL gets a lead or a few defensive stops early on. They are not doing a very good job on defense and they lost in overtime last week on a special units play. They have failed to cover last three games and they are playing the Rams in the worst possible time.
The Rams showed a lot of character last week, comming off bye, playing good defense and timely offense in their road dog win in Washington. The home dog is always dangerous after a road dog win, and STL is always dangerous at home, even when not talented like this season.
Road teams with line +6/-14.5 with no bye are 12-31-3 ats after a road overtime game.
Home dogs after a road dog win of 6-pts are 60-27-4 ATS
Play: Green Bay +1.5
The Colts are 3-2 but they could have easily been 1-4. The Packers are 3-3 but could have been 4-2. With these two you just never know what team is gonna show up.
Both teams have a good offense and a bad defense. A.Rodgers actually has a better passer rating than P.Manning so far this season and that's kinda surprising. What is very important in this matchup is the rushing offense, and Green Bay is finally showing some signs of it lately, and that could be the key at home against this Colts defense.
The Colts have been ont the road twice this season and they won both games in dramatic fashion. They were trailing Minnesota by 15 and Houston by 17 in the third quarter.
The Packers lost two straight at home but responded well on the road last week and they have a chance to snap their two game home losing streak tomorrow.
road favorites of 3.5 or less, not after bye, after a home favorite win are 8-42-1 ats against a tema that won on the road in the previous game with a line >-3.
Play: Oakland +3
This is the fishiest line on the board this week. But when you look at the stats you'll quickly realize that it is not as fishy as it looks. The Jets are all about offense but their offense hasn't been doing all that well. They've taken advantage of some turnovers, and Favre has been Favre, throwing long balls for TD's and for Int's. But stat wise, their passing offesne is not that good, and Oakland actually has a really solid young pass defense that can challenge the Jets passing offense.
The Jets have been good against the run, but after looking at their opponents so far this season, you'll see that they faced Arizona (passing team), cincinnati (passing team), NE (passing team), Miami and SD (somewhat balanced offense). They have yet to face a rush oriented offense like Oakland and if Oakland gets close to their season average in rushing yards, they are in bussiness.
They Jets are 0-2 su and ats in their worst two defensive rushing games and thats not even close to what Oakland can do on the ground. Oakland has already allowed 262 passing yards to Buffalo and almost won that game as a huge road underdog. The Jets had 267 passing yards @ San Diego and lost big.
