Also posted in another thread SEA -5.5 2 units -- but I might buy out and go for a middle if the line goes up to 7.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1032935
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1032935
Updated YTD (after TNF) and week 7 card (so far):
NFL 2015: YTD: 41-25-3: (+34.4 units)
4 unit plays: 3-1-1 (+7.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-2 (+2.4 units)
2 unit plays: 18-6-1 (+22.6)
1 unit plays: 18-16-1 (+1.8 units)
Sea – 5.5 (2 units)
Winner
STL – 5.5 (3 units)
I posted this above. The Browns on the road, facing one of the top defenses on football. I will lay the points. This is up to 6.5 already. This play sticks out to me as much as any so I am laying the points.
Buffalo/Jax UNDER 42 (2 units)
Both of these teams averages are inflated from their games against NE. Jax gave up 51 and Buffalo gave up a lot, but also scored a ton of cheap garbage points. With all the injuries to Buffalo we are left with two bad offensive teams that should play a typically low-scoring game in London.I like the UNDER.
Minn/Detroit OVER 44 (2 units)
These teams met a few weeks ago and the total landed at 42. But Detroit’s offense seems to have figured out a few things, unloading last week vs Chicago. In fact, I came close to playing Det when it was close to a 3, but the line has moved sharply in the other direction so I am undecided if I will take that.
NFL 2015: YTD: 41-25-3: (+34.4 units)
4 unit plays: 3-1-1 (+7.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-2 (+2.4 units)
2 unit plays: 18-6-1 (+22.6)
1 unit plays: 18-16-1 (+1.8 units)
Sea – 5.5 (2 units)
Winner
STL – 5.5 (3 units)
I posted this above. The Browns on the road, facing one of the top defenses on football. I will lay the points. This is up to 6.5 already. This play sticks out to me as much as any so I am laying the points.
Buffalo/Jax UNDER 42 (2 units)
Both of these teams averages are inflated from their games against NE. Jax gave up 51 and Buffalo gave up a lot, but also scored a ton of cheap garbage points. With all the injuries to Buffalo we are left with two bad offensive teams that should play a typically low-scoring game in London.I like the UNDER.
Minn/Detroit OVER 44 (2 units)
These teams met a few weeks ago and the total landed at 42. But Detroit’s offense seems to have figured out a few things, unloading last week vs Chicago. In fact, I came close to playing Det when it was close to a 3, but the line has moved sharply in the other direction so I am undecided if I will take that.
Sorry if this is too predictable!
ADD:
Pats – 6.5 (-123) 2 units
I originally liked the Jets, and as some of you noted I started to have my doubts. It seems most people – sharps and squares a like – like the Jets and I do understand why. The Jets have kept these types of games to within 3 points every game since 2012. This line is now down to 7 (as cheap as -107). I am biting and buying half a point. I said I would do it if I could get (-7 120) and now I am basically getting 6.5 at that price. Remember, this Patriots teams is averaging 36 points for a reason and I don’t expect them to let their foot off the gas in a game for first place in the East against the team BB hates the most. The Patriots have the fourth best start in history through week 6 , according to ELO ratings. The teams ranked above them are the 85 Bears, the 42 Bears and the 2007 Pats – impressive company. So if I can lay less than a TD at home – where they cover ATS 75 percent of the time in the last 20 – I am going to do it.
I am nervous about Dion Lewis being out, but I am loving that Football Outsiders ranks the Pats as 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in ST’s efficiency where the Jets are 31[SUP]st[/SUP]. This matters in a one-score thread. Also, people tend to overrate AFC East teams that beat up on weak opponents. Remember when Buffalo was favored against NE? Now they are getting crushed in London by the Jags (28-3 in mid-2[SUP]nd[/SUP], costing me on an under incidentally). I am buying half a point as twice this year a back door has pushed a Patriots lead down to 7 (in Pitt, where I bought half a point and won, and Indy where I had -7(-120) and pushed on a blocked PAT. I know most disagree but I have talked myself into it. 2.46 units to win 2 at -6.5 (-123).
Probably will add one more early bet…
ADD:
Pats – 6.5 (-123) 2 units
I originally liked the Jets, and as some of you noted I started to have my doubts. It seems most people – sharps and squares a like – like the Jets and I do understand why. The Jets have kept these types of games to within 3 points every game since 2012. This line is now down to 7 (as cheap as -107). I am biting and buying half a point. I said I would do it if I could get (-7 120) and now I am basically getting 6.5 at that price. Remember, this Patriots teams is averaging 36 points for a reason and I don’t expect them to let their foot off the gas in a game for first place in the East against the team BB hates the most. The Patriots have the fourth best start in history through week 6 , according to ELO ratings. The teams ranked above them are the 85 Bears, the 42 Bears and the 2007 Pats – impressive company. So if I can lay less than a TD at home – where they cover ATS 75 percent of the time in the last 20 – I am going to do it.
I am nervous about Dion Lewis being out, but I am loving that Football Outsiders ranks the Pats as 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in ST’s efficiency where the Jets are 31[SUP]st[/SUP]. This matters in a one-score thread. Also, people tend to overrate AFC East teams that beat up on weak opponents. Remember when Buffalo was favored against NE? Now they are getting crushed in London by the Jags (28-3 in mid-2[SUP]nd[/SUP], costing me on an under incidentally). I am buying half a point as twice this year a back door has pushed a Patriots lead down to 7 (in Pitt, where I bought half a point and won, and Indy where I had -7(-120) and pushed on a blocked PAT. I know most disagree but I have talked myself into it. 2.46 units to win 2 at -6.5 (-123).
Probably will add one more early bet…
I never explained my reasoning for these picks so here are two small (and cursory) write-ups:
Titans +7 -120 (2 units) –
I lost 3.3 units on Tenn last week because I wrongly thought they were a decent team. In truth, they are a pretty shitty team. But, as many here know, there is money to be made riding shitty teams and this one is probably the best plain value on the board know that the line has gone up to 6.5 (bought half a point). The line jumped up 1.5 points when Mariota went down, but is Zach Mett a huge downgrade? He has a year experience in the offense and many Titan fans wanted the team to trade the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] pick for a haul and ride with him. I like Mariota, don’t get me wrong, but he is a banged-up rookie and I think Tenn’s chances might improve with Mett at the helm. I would be remiss not to note that Tenn’s head coach has lost 33 of his last 37 games SU and they are not a good home team, especially. But the reason bad teams are good value is because they are bad.
As far as ATL, they are probably a bit overrated. They have a boatload of offensive talent, but they have likely been overachieving thus far. Their roster hasn’t improved radically – they weren’t even a .500 team the last few years and if this game took place in week 1 the line would have been way different (ATL may have even been a small dog at the opening of the week, but at most they would have been a 3 point fav). I suspect the Titans to score early and make this a fight. I could be wrong and if I am wrong it could be ugly. That is why 90 percent of the money came in on ATL. But at 7 points? It is clear where the value is and this is the kind of game that will cash more often than it loses, despite public perception.
STL – 5.5 (3 units)
This line stood out to be and I got it early (though had I been earlier I would’ve got it at 4.5 or so). The Rams are coming off a bye week and are facing a Browns team coming off a heart-breaker OT loss vs Denver. The Rams defense is a monster and should cause plenty of problems for McCown and the woeful Browns offense. The Rams offense is not great, of course, but Gurley is starting to become a major factor and could help them score more TDS. Foles is competent enough especially at home (they put up 35 vs SEA). I could easily see SEA holding CLE to less than 13 points.
NOTE: all lines are -110 unless otherwise stated. All bets are between 1-4 units. To date there have been no moneyline, parlays or teasers and while I expect that to continue, I don’t promise anything. I generally prefer this strategy, but nothing is absolute. Also, I hate EJ Manuel right now – is costing me 2.2 units in all likelihood on my UNDER.
Titans +7 -120 (2 units) –
I lost 3.3 units on Tenn last week because I wrongly thought they were a decent team. In truth, they are a pretty shitty team. But, as many here know, there is money to be made riding shitty teams and this one is probably the best plain value on the board know that the line has gone up to 6.5 (bought half a point). The line jumped up 1.5 points when Mariota went down, but is Zach Mett a huge downgrade? He has a year experience in the offense and many Titan fans wanted the team to trade the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] pick for a haul and ride with him. I like Mariota, don’t get me wrong, but he is a banged-up rookie and I think Tenn’s chances might improve with Mett at the helm. I would be remiss not to note that Tenn’s head coach has lost 33 of his last 37 games SU and they are not a good home team, especially. But the reason bad teams are good value is because they are bad.
As far as ATL, they are probably a bit overrated. They have a boatload of offensive talent, but they have likely been overachieving thus far. Their roster hasn’t improved radically – they weren’t even a .500 team the last few years and if this game took place in week 1 the line would have been way different (ATL may have even been a small dog at the opening of the week, but at most they would have been a 3 point fav). I suspect the Titans to score early and make this a fight. I could be wrong and if I am wrong it could be ugly. That is why 90 percent of the money came in on ATL. But at 7 points? It is clear where the value is and this is the kind of game that will cash more often than it loses, despite public perception.
STL – 5.5 (3 units)
This line stood out to be and I got it early (though had I been earlier I would’ve got it at 4.5 or so). The Rams are coming off a bye week and are facing a Browns team coming off a heart-breaker OT loss vs Denver. The Rams defense is a monster and should cause plenty of problems for McCown and the woeful Browns offense. The Rams offense is not great, of course, but Gurley is starting to become a major factor and could help them score more TDS. Foles is competent enough especially at home (they put up 35 vs SEA). I could easily see SEA holding CLE to less than 13 points.
NOTE: all lines are -110 unless otherwise stated. All bets are between 1-4 units. To date there have been no moneyline, parlays or teasers and while I expect that to continue, I don’t promise anything. I generally prefer this strategy, but nothing is absolute. Also, I hate EJ Manuel right now – is costing me 2.2 units in all likelihood on my UNDER.
Upgrade: The Pats line is down to 6.5 -110 – too much value. I am upgrading my play to a 4 unit play. If lose a 4-unit play (my max) on the Pats being unable to win a home game (for first place) by a TD I can live with that. You got to pick your spots. As with STL I will count this as 1 4-unit play (as opposed to 1 3 unit play and one 1-unit play) and will simply combine the juice.* So 2 units at -6.5 (-123) and another 2 units at -6.5 comes to 4 units at -116.5. So the bet is now Pats -6.5 (-116.5) or 4.7 units to win 4 units.
*I don’t see the value is measuring it as two separate tickets – theoretically someone could bet 4 times on the same team at the same jjuice and have a 4-0 record, which leads to needlessly inflated, (or deflated ) w/l percentages. In any event, the units are what matter in my view. But for lurkers looking for advice, sometimes the w/l % matters more that total units.
Total Card so Far:
Sea -5.5 2 units (winner)
Buff UNDER 42 2 units (loser)
Jax 2H TT OVER 9.5 1 unit (pending, but almost certainly a loser)
(likely a 1-2 start, -1.3 units)
STL -5.5 (-113) 4 units
Tenn + 7 (-120) 2 units
Det/Minn OVER 44 (2 units)
NE -6.5 (-117) 4 units
I am mulling throwing 1 unit on Detroit, but for the most part this is my 1 pm card.
*I don’t see the value is measuring it as two separate tickets – theoretically someone could bet 4 times on the same team at the same jjuice and have a 4-0 record, which leads to needlessly inflated, (or deflated ) w/l percentages. In any event, the units are what matter in my view. But for lurkers looking for advice, sometimes the w/l % matters more that total units.
Total Card so Far:
Sea -5.5 2 units (winner)
Buff UNDER 42 2 units (loser)
Jax 2H TT OVER 9.5 1 unit (pending, but almost certainly a loser)
(likely a 1-2 start, -1.3 units)
STL -5.5 (-113) 4 units
Tenn + 7 (-120) 2 units
Det/Minn OVER 44 (2 units)
NE -6.5 (-117) 4 units
I am mulling throwing 1 unit on Detroit, but for the most part this is my 1 pm card.
Wow that was a good day for me vs the book. At 1 pm I went 4-0 including hitting two max plays (4 units each) -- up a total of 12 units!
I had to sweat NE out big-time but that half a point was crucial. I was down -1.3 units this week going into the 1 pm games as I went 1-2 on the prior games (SEA/SF; Buff/Jax) but that makes me 5-2 for the week with +10.7 units.
I did play the NYG -2.5 (-125) 1 unit. I posted it in DC's thread on accident at 2:30 pm: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1033460&p=11290478#post11290478. Not sure about SNF but maybe UNDER or a TEAM Total UNDER.
I had to sweat NE out big-time but that half a point was crucial. I was down -1.3 units this week going into the 1 pm games as I went 1-2 on the prior games (SEA/SF; Buff/Jax) but that makes me 5-2 for the week with +10.7 units.
I did play the NYG -2.5 (-125) 1 unit. I posted it in DC's thread on accident at 2:30 pm: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1033460&p=11290478#post11290478. Not sure about SNF but maybe UNDER or a TEAM Total UNDER.
ADD:
Phi/Carolina FH UNDER 23 - 1 unit
This is in many ways an indictment of the Philly offense. I took them vs the Giants but I also watched them closely and I don’t trust Bradford or Murray. The Panthers have played well, but lack great weapons offensively outside of Cam Newton, especially at WR. So I like the under here – and I like it for the game or the first half, but I like them equally, so I will go with FH UNDER 23. This way, I know where I stand if I decide to make any 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half plays.
As my write-up indicates, I am skeptical of this Eagles offense and Carolina -3 (+105 is tempting) but I don’t understand the line movement. Carolina seems to have more money and bets coming in, but the line suggests the books is asking for Carolina money. I have had a good day and don’t want to push it, so I am not taking a side. Maybe in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half if the situation warrants. I might consider adding a unit to this play if the line holds and the Giants cover. But, again, when things are going my way I try to become even more cautious – pride and falling and all that shit ….
Phi/Carolina FH UNDER 23 - 1 unit
This is in many ways an indictment of the Philly offense. I took them vs the Giants but I also watched them closely and I don’t trust Bradford or Murray. The Panthers have played well, but lack great weapons offensively outside of Cam Newton, especially at WR. So I like the under here – and I like it for the game or the first half, but I like them equally, so I will go with FH UNDER 23. This way, I know where I stand if I decide to make any 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half plays.
As my write-up indicates, I am skeptical of this Eagles offense and Carolina -3 (+105 is tempting) but I don’t understand the line movement. Carolina seems to have more money and bets coming in, but the line suggests the books is asking for Carolina money. I have had a good day and don’t want to push it, so I am not taking a side. Maybe in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half if the situation warrants. I might consider adding a unit to this play if the line holds and the Giants cover. But, again, when things are going my way I try to become even more cautious – pride and falling and all that shit ….
Before I forget …
NFL 2015: YTD: 46-27-3: (+46.1 units)
4 unit plays: 5-1-1 (+15.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-2 (+2.4 units)
2 unit plays: 21-7-1 (+26.4)
1 unit plays: 19-17-1 (+1.7 units)
Week 7 results:
4 unit plays: 2-0 + 8 units
3 unit plays: n/a
2 unit plays: 3-1 +3.8 units
1 unit plays: 1-1 -.1 units
Total: 6-2 +11.7 units
Pending:
PHI/Car FH Under 23 1 unit
NFL 2015: YTD: 46-27-3: (+46.1 units)
4 unit plays: 5-1-1 (+15.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-2 (+2.4 units)
2 unit plays: 21-7-1 (+26.4)
1 unit plays: 19-17-1 (+1.7 units)
Week 7 results:
4 unit plays: 2-0 + 8 units
3 unit plays: n/a
2 unit plays: 3-1 +3.8 units
1 unit plays: 1-1 -.1 units
Total: 6-2 +11.7 units
Pending:
PHI/Car FH Under 23 1 unit
