WEEK 7 NFL ^^ 151 ^^

[one51rum]

ill take the hot Jacksonville team +3, Saints have been struggling in my view, i mean they got the players, but they just are not getting it done, and jax is playing really good football right now, beating Buffalo and putting the Hammer down on Indy, a team that almost everyone was on last week , if this goes up ill be surprised and may just bet again they have covered their last 3 games and by alot too, they covered against Atl by 13, they covered vs Buff by 10 and covered vs Indy by 13 so this team is not just squeaking by or covering at the very end, they are in control of the game, and N.O. has lost 3 of their last 4 onl win was at N.E., and they were favored in all 3 losses, so give me the Jags and the 3 points here on the road ..gl 151

Ticket Wager Detail​

Ticket Number:730099031Accepted Date:10/17/2023 - ESTGraded Date:1/1/0001Wager Type:Spread (or run line)Wager Status PendingRisk:$168.00 (USD)To Win Amount:$150.00 (USD)Description:Football - NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints - Jacksonville Jaguars
Item #:1Wager Type:SpreadOutcome PendingSport / Period:Football NFL / GameLine:Football - NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints - Jacksonville Jaguars 10/19/2023 8:15:01 PM- (EST)
+3 -112

 

[cashflow50]

gl with your wager

 

[one51rum]

Also we have another 5 5.5 spread system play, i explained it last week on a thread, this is my system, it goes back to before the 2 point conversion, that any team who opens at +5 or +5.5 you bet them, the line can move, this is based on the opening line, that comes out like a week before, not the line that comes out weeks before or months before, and iif it is a home team you double your wager, this covers at about 66% and wins outright at about 64%, thats right it's not a mistake, last weeek we had our 1st one it was Cleveland, now i post usually at TheRX all my write ups and my tickets are posted there, what happened last week was that after i bet clev+6 because i bought up to 6, the line went up because Watson was out, that was the 1st time in 25 years that i have had this that something like that happened, because line moves due to injury are a bit diff in my view, i do not care about line moves due to the action, will alwayss trust my handicapping over action moves, but anyway as we know Cleveland not only covered, but they won str up

this weeks game is L.A chargers at KC i am going to wait to play this because the line just came out and i do think it will go to 6 , if it goes to 5 ill bet it, but i think it goes up, again the line move does not matter unless like Herbert or Mahomes maybe goes down but it is a system play

gl 151

i posted this at covers then pasted

 

[one51rum]

Also we have another 5 5.5 spread system play, i explained it last week on a thread, this is my system, it goes back to before the 2 point conversion, that any team who opens at +5 or +5.5 you bet them, the line can move, this is based on the opening line, that comes out like a week before, not the line that comes out weeks before or months before, and iif it is a home team you double your wager, this covers at about 66% and wins outright at about 64%, thats right it's not a mistake, last weeek we had our 1st one it was Cleveland, now i post usually at TheRX all my write ups and my tickets are posted there, what happened last week was that after i bet clev+6 because i bought up to 6, the line went up because Watson was out, that was the 1st time in 25 years that i have had this that something like that happened, because line moves due to injury are a bit diff in my view, i do not care about line moves due to the action, will alwayss trust my handicapping over action moves, but anyway as we know Cleveland not only covered, but they won str up

this weeks game is L.A chargers at KC i am going to wait to play this because the line just came out and i do think it will go to 6 , if it goes to 5 ill bet it, but i think it goes up, again the line move does not matter unless like Herbert or Mahomes maybe goes down but it is a system play

gl 151

 

[one51rum]

Well Jax is now +1 , so far i was right to get on jax+3 as far as trying to get the best line possible, don't mean its a winner, just always hoping to get the best line possible on plays i like, also interesting to see still no movement on the La/KC game, i still think public may want to get KC at under 6, hoping it goes up, if not i'll buy but hoping public pushes this ...One line that is interesting is the Clev at Indy line, this is a game where the line opened on the 10th which is like a short future line, being that is was almost 2 weeks out, they show that on the 10th even before cleveland beat SF that clev was -2.5 o/u 42.5 then on 15th after clev won it was clev-1.5 40, and then it went to clev-2 and 39 , i would have maybe thought clev was now favored just because they beat SF but that's nt the case they were already favored, i do think if Indy had won, or covered and clev lost maybe it would have been a pick, but Indy looked bad, and i do not think clev looked great on offense, but their defense was what won it for them for sure, they showed that the SF offense can be controlled, i mean this team has gotten so much praise for being so good (which it is) but i mean they had this team looking unbeatable, and to watch how well the defense controlled them was something to see, i mean when you really look at the game SF should not have scored more than 10 points, that last TD was a gimme from the cleveland offense, that INT gave SF a 1st and goal at the 7 yd line, and clevelands offense was just good enough to get the win, Cooper had a huge day, think about it no Chubb, and no Watson, that is the top 2 of 3 players they have with Cooper being the 3rd, and yet they still beat the maybe best team in the NFL, and yes SF had 1 turnover in the 1st half but it lead to nothing, and clev's lead to a td, so it's not like SF lost the game, they both missed a fg in the 1st half then SF missed the one to end the game but it was a 54 yd one, it was a game that was a system play as clev opened at 5.5 but then went to 9.5 when watson was not going to play, but to see the system still work to where the home team not only covered but won outright, i should have stuck with it and made it a double play, but that was the 1st time that i can ever think of where after the lines came out that a starting qb was all of a sudden not playing to make the line jump, maybe it had happen but we are talking since around early 90's maybe late 80's that i have had this, this week it is the Chargers who opened at 5.5 so it's a 1 unit play, and the SF at Minny game, they had a short future line of SF-7.5 then on 15th it opened at 7 at 7pm within an hour it went to 6.5 then by 8pm it was 6.5 then next morning it was 7 again , then last night at 7pm it want back to 6.5 so looks like that line is going to be right at 6.5-7 ..this is a huge game for both teams, be interesting to see how SF responds after losing but having to stay on the road again, and Minnesota who is 2-4 really needs this also to keep any hope alive as Detroit keeps winning , Jefferson being out is BIG for Minny, their defense is really going to have to play well here
gl 151

 

[one51rum]

Detroit is playing good football, 3 points is about right for being on the road, i think detroit is the better team in this game, if they can somehow get the lead i think it will be hard for Balt to keep up, be interesting, i think Detroit can score 23-24 and balt maybe gets to 20 detroit out right win maybe gl​

Confirmation: 1336758​

Date Placed: 10/18/23 18:45:45
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 110.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 457 Lions +3 (-110) risk 110.00 win 100.00 (NFL)

also 1 3 team teaser 10 pt

Confirmation: 1336792​

Date Placed: 10/18/23 18:46:47
Header:
INTERNET: 3 Team 3T 10 Points Teaser(ties no action) risk 165.00 win 150.00
Bet Details:

1. 471 Dolphins +12½ (NFL) (10.0 pts)
2. 467 Chargers +15½ (NFL) (10.0 pts)
3. 459 Bills +1½ (NFL) (10.0 pts)

gl 151

 

[Loves2kickass]

Detroit is playing good football, 3 points is about right for being on the road, i think detroit is the better team in this game, if they can somehow get the lead i think it will be hard for Balt to keep up, be interesting, i think Detroit can score 23-24 and balt maybe gets to 20 detroit out right win maybe gl​

Confirmation: 1336758​

Date Placed: 10/18/23 18:45:45
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 110.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 457 Lions +3 (-110) risk 110.00 win 100.00 (NFL)

gl 151

I've got Balt right about -2 at home. With a 3 point line I'd slightly agree with you. At +3.5 I'd probably be on it also. GL

 

[Loves2kickass]

Well Jax is now +1 , so far i was right to get on jax+3 as far as trying to get the best line possible, don't mean its a winner, just always hoping to get the best line possible on plays i like, also interesting to see still no movement on the La/KC game, i still think public may want to get KC at under 6, hoping it goes up, if not i'll buy but hoping public pushes this ...One line that is interesting is the Clev at Indy line, this is a game where the line opened on the 10th which is like a short future line, being that is was almost 2 weeks out, they show that on the 10th even before cleveland beat SF that clev was -2.5 o/u 42.5 then on 15th after clev won it was clev-1.5 40, and then it went to clev-2 and 39 , i would have maybe thought clev was now favored just because they beat SF but that's nt the case they were already favored, i do think if Indy had won, or covered and clev lost maybe it would have been a pick, but Indy looked bad, and i do not think clev looked great on offense, but their defense was what won it for them for sure, they showed that the SF offense can be controlled, i mean this team has gotten so much praise for being so good (which it is) but i mean they had this team looking unbeatable, and to watch how well the defense controlled them was something to see, i mean when you really look at the game SF should not have scored more than 10 points, that last TD was a gimme from the cleveland offense, that INT gave SF a 1st and goal at the 7 yd line, and clevelands offense was just good enough to get the win, Cooper had a huge day, think about it no Chubb, and no Watson, that is the top 2 of 3 players they have with Cooper being the 3rd, and yet they still beat the maybe best team in the NFL, and yes SF had 1 turnover in the 1st half but it lead to nothing, and clev's lead to a td, so it's not like SF lost the game, they both missed a fg in the 1st half then SF missed the one to end the game but it was a 54 yd one, it was a game that was a system play as clev opened at 5.5 but then went to 9.5 when watson was not going to play, but to see the system still work to where the home team not only covered but won outright, i should have stuck with it and made it a double play, but that was the 1st time that i can ever think of where after the lines came out that a starting qb was all of a sudden not playing to make the line jump, maybe it had happen but we are talking since around early 90's maybe late 80's that i have had this, this week it is the Chargers who opened at 5.5 so it's a 1 unit play, and the SF at Minny game, they had a short future line of SF-7.5 then on 15th it opened at 7 at 7pm within an hour it went to 6.5 then by 8pm it was 6.5 then next morning it was 7 again , then last night at 7pm it want back to 6.5 so looks like that line is going to be right at 6.5-7 ..this is a huge game for both teams, be interesting to see how SF responds after losing but having to stay on the road again, and Minnesota who is 2-4 really needs this also to keep any hope alive as Detroit keeps winning , Jefferson being out is BIG for Minny, their defense is really going to have to play well here
gl 151

Jax +3 is a great line. As far as SF/MINN, 7 is too high and it will prob drop mid week then could quite possibly see Niner money push it and keep it at around the 7 mark come Game day. If that line sticks at 7 or above I'll be on Minny most definately.

 

[exploited17]

Line movement all about Lawrence and whether he plays or not

 

[Loves2kickass]

SF line should be -5.5. Public perception gives the bettor an extra point and a half and some value with Minny.

 

[one51rum]

Here is what is sad, You have 2 very bad football teams in FIU and SH playing, and if you bet SH in the end you are begging for the other team to score just so you have a chance at winning...lol thats how bad that team is, FIU had the ball twice i think in the red zone and got 0 pts actually FIU should have won this by 7 i said i would not bet this team again, if they cover you were VERY, VERY lucky it sure was not handicapping that won it...lol

 

[one51rum]

sometimes if ya beg enough you get it....i would stay away from teams like this bigtime ugly game and SH might cover, but again when you are begging for the other team to score just so you can maybe cover that is called begging not handicapping

 

[one51rum]

FIU teased was an easy winner and the OVER lives

 

[one51rum]

LIKE I SAID FIU should have won by 7 but they win by 6 pissed i did not bet them str up now i need bama-2 for the teaser damnit when you have 2 bad teams take the points if its close to a td

 

[one51rum]

well posted some college in here last night by mistake....anyway i am on Jax tonight +3 bet early, adding a prop parlay at +195

YOUR BET WAS SUCCESSFULLY SUBMITTED.
2 LEG PARLAYView Legs
Christian Kirk (JAX)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints
Will have at least 5 Receptions against NOS
@ -176
Rashid Shaheed (NOS)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints
Will have at least 38 Receiving Yards against JAX
@ -114
Odds:+195
Wager:
$50.00
Return:
$ 147.50

tell ya i get so wrapped up in college football, that i forget that there is thurs night NFL, last week forgot all about the NFL game, and did today too, till just now seen them talking about it, and was like i got Jax tonight...lol so went to the props i also liked Ingram to get over 44 yds rec, he has really been hitting Kirk and Ingram lately seems like they have been getting the targets and not Ridley so went with this gl 151

 

[one51rum]

 

[one51rum]

Oct 16, 2023 04:25 AM

Spread

$105.00

$100.00

Win

Football - 311 Jacksonville Jaguars pk -105 for Game

when you really like a play this is what you do i bet them pk then it went to +3 dumb not to bet again

Oct 17, 2023 12:26 AM

Spread

$117.00

$100.00

Win

Football - 311 Jacksonville Jaguars +3 -117 for Game

 

[one51rum]

well shaheed came up short but that damn Kirk is a good prop guy, he almost always catches every target

 

[one51rum]

SF line should be -5.5. Public perception gives the bettor an extra point and a half and some value with Minny.

whats the public perception ?? the line opened on the 10th at 7.5 stayed the for about 2 hours, shows it went to 7 unitil the 14th then it went back to 7.5 at 11 pm then next day on sunday 7 pm went back to 7 then at 830 pm it dropped to 6.5, then monday morning back to 7, then last night went to 6.5 where it sits right now, don't know what you mean by public perception? so far this line has went up and down, lines are set to try and get even action, you'll get 100 arguments on what the line should be, are you saying they set the line at 7.5 because they want everyone to take Minnesota?? knowing SF will win big? if thats the case when its at 7.5 and the money came in on Minnesota they would just keep it at 7 and not drop it, book managers can do that to try and make the book more momey so their bonuses are better, but they better be right, if not they will lose their jobs, i have seen that happen...just not sure what you meant by public perception is why the line is not 5.5 ??

 

[one51rum]

Biden is an idiot, he sits and talks about how we must stand together and not let politics keep us apart, yet on his 1st day he undid everything trump did just because Trunp did it....lol then he gives a speech in front of the flags last year with a red background and talked about Mega people are the enemy of this country, which was nothing byt trying to divide this country, i really hope the FBI was taking pictures of all the people at these protest going on who are preaching hate, its truly amazing to see how many people there are in this country who actually hate the country they live in... and we keep letting more in every day and he says nothing about that, when you see how many have crossed this border from countries where terrorist thrive is scary just my thought, we worry about which team is covering a spread, and yet there is so much more to truly worry about GOD BLESS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA