Week 7 CFB Plays

[sendacash]

Purdue +24

Wisconsin seemed dead in the water last week when Badgers kicker Rafael Gaglianone clanged a 39-yard field goal off the right upright with 1:26 remaining against Nebraska. At the time, Nebraska led 21-20, and ESPN's win probability calculations gave the Cornhuskers an 88 percent chance to win the game. Instead, Wisconsin's defense forced a three-and-out, the Badgers quickly drove down the field, and Gaglianone redeemed himself by drilling a 46-yard field goal with four seconds left to win it. So this could be a bit of a letdown spot for Wisky coming off that unlikely victory and the hard fought loss the week before against Iowa as well. Purdue has been pretty much awful for the most part thus far, but I'm not sure they are quite this bad and last weeks game was probably a little closer than the scoreboard indicated against Minnesota and they did manage to keep it close in a similarly lined games against Michigan State a couple weeks back. Wisconsin no doubt has its own issues, which means few Big Ten wins will be guaranteed. The once-dominant offensive line and running game have been all over the place and top running back Corey Clement remains sidelined. The offensive line has used four different starting combinations in six games and could change again if center Dan Voltz can't recover from an elbow injury sustained against Nebraska. The rushing attack took so long to get going Saturday that Stave became the first quarterback in program history to pass 50 times in a winning effort. Let's not forget that Stave has a propensity to make ill fated passes that can easily wind up in the defenders hands. If you throw out the Miami Ohio game, the most points Wisconsin has scored is 28 this season so getting 24 points in a conference game with a total set at 48 seems like a pretty good deal to me and we have had some luck fading the early steam so far this year so I'm going to take another shot at it with the Boilermakers to get the cover.

 

[sendacash]

Virginia Tech +6

Miami led Florida State in the fourth quarter the past two years. Miami ended up losing. Do you know what happened the following week? Miami lost again. Whether the Canes can get over yet another heartbreaking loss to their biggest rivals will determine what happens the rest of the way. Because right now, the evidence shows that Miami closed a combined 2-6 the past two years after a loss to the Seminoles and opponents outscored them 313-220 in those games. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, comes into this game after a definitive win over NC State with Coastal hopes of its own. The Hokies now have some confidence back after tough losses to East Carolina and Pitt brought more questions about Frank Beamer's future. If the offensive line performs the way it did last week, Virginia Tech will put itself in position to win. The Hokies are well aware of what Miami did to them in Lane Stadium last year. Beamer was unequivocal in describing how poorly last year's 30-6 loss to Miami went. "Last year they came in here and kicked us like we don’t get kicked very much," he said. Defensive tackle Luther Maddy was hurt by that point of the season but remembers the feeling. "Being on the sidelines, just watching like, wow," he said. "They were busting runs for eight yards a pop. It was a terrible draw by us on the defense. Three hundred yards I think rushing. So this year we’re going to have a chip on our shoulder, just bring it to them. They embarrassed us last year. So, I mean that was last year. We want to play our best game on defense this year." There's no word yet on Michael Brewer's availability this week and I think his status may be giving us a little extra value to this line. The senior quarterback was able to practice last week but was not cleared to play in the game. Brewers replacement Brenden Motley threw three touchdown passes in the win over NC State on Friday. That brings his total to 10 this season, which ranks second in the ACC. Head coach Frank Beamer feels comfortable with either at the helm, even if the offense is slightly different when the more run-oriented Motley and more pass-oriented Brewer are in the game. "We’ve got two quarterbacks that can win a football game for us. That’s the bottom line," Beamer said. "That’s good for Virginia Tech."

 

[sendacash]

Colorado +8

Looks like just about everyone is taking Arizona in this Saturday night Pac-12 game with 84% of the bets tabulated thus far on the Wildcats, yet the line has yet to budge and even some 7.5s are starting to appear. Sure the Buffs laid an egg in a similar role a couple weeks ago against the not so mighty Ducks and were blown out again last week in Tempe, but I'm willing to give them one more chance when catching more than a TD at home as I made this game Arizona -4. This looks to be a high scoring affair as neither team plays much defense and with Arizona ranked 93rd in total defense still without all conference LB Scooby Wright, I looks for the backdoor to be unlocked if not left wide open.

 

[sendacash]

Tulsa +12

BYU was up 38-21 in the 3rd quarter last week when Cougars QB Tanner Mangum left the game with an injury. BYU was then unable to move the ball with the backup QB and East Carolina mounted a furious 17 point comeback into the 4th quarter to tie the score at 38-38 with 4:01 left. Mangum then returned to the field late in the game and BYU went on a long drive capped by a 9 yd TD run with :19 left for win . The Pirates now return home in what has to be somewhat of a deflated mood after coming so close to the upset to face a Tulsa team whom they handled rather easily last year by 17 points. This Tulsa team is much different that last years squad, under first year head coach and long time Baylor offensive coordinator Phil Montgomery who has installed a version of the fast break Baylor offense that's ranked 7th in total offense averaging 568 yards per game. Tulsa's high powered offense is not the only concern for East Carolina as the Pirates have a big game coming up with AAC-East leader Temple at home the following Thursday whom they lost to last season. So we have a team coming off a hard fought loss and now a double digit favorite that may be looking ahead to a game against their conference leader on short rest and against a team with a potent offense, that seems like a good recipe for another back door cover.

 

[sendacash]

Arizona State +7

While Utah has been a nice story over the first half of the college football season, I'm just not a believer in the Utes being the fourth best team in the country as their current AP poll ranking would lead many to believe at least not according to my power ratings which make Utah around -2.5 here. So give me the full TD with the Sun Devils and we will add a little to the ML +235 as well.

 

[Conan]

Colorado +8

Looks like just about everyone is taking Arizona in this Saturday night Pac-12 game with 84% of the bets tabulated thus far on the Wildcats, yet the line has yet to budge and even some 7.5s are starting to appear. Sure the Buffs laid an egg in a similar role a couple weeks ago against the not so mighty Ducks and were blown out again last week in Tempe, but I'm willing to give them one more chance when catching more than a TD at home as I made this game Arizona -4. This looks to be a high scoring affair as neither team plays much defense and with Arizona ranked 93rd in total defense still without all conference LB Scooby Wright, I looks for the backdoor to be unlocked if not left wide open.

Yeah...Zona Zona Zona
They are simply Not the team the rankings indicate. Their opening schedule was about as harsh as it gets so IMHO it wouldn't be too wise to include the Buffs alongside the previous opposition. Don't.get me wrong. I like Mike Macintyre a lot but he took over the team with an empty cupboard and I can see the improvement his presence has provided. But its just not their time yet.

I see no reason why RR's Wildcats connot just walk right through the upstart Buffalos.

 

[JrBoy]

best of luck this sendacash! no favs this week?

 

[sendacash]

Yeah...Zona Zona Zona
They are simply Not the team the rankings indicate. Their opening schedule was about as harsh as it gets so IMHO it wouldn't be too wise to include the Buffs alongside the previous opposition. Don't.get me wrong. I like Mike Macintyre a lot but he took over the team with an empty cupboard and I can see the improvement his presence has provided. But its just not their time yet.

I see no reason why RR's Wildcats connot just walk right through the upstart Buffalos.

Conan, I don't like going against our resident guru in PAC-12 action so maybe I should have filtered that game however my power ratings indicate value, but I am a sucker for these contrarian type of plays in this is the only conceivable role to back a pretty lousy Colorado football team. Good luck this weekend.

 

[sendacash]

best of luck this sendacash! no favs this week?

I should have a favorite on the card this week Jr, just trying to see how some of these lines shake out. Guess I'm going about this a little backwards, playing the dogs early and the favs later.

 

[sendacash]

Texas A&M +4

Texas A&M is off a bye and waiting in the weeds for an Alabama team that embarrassed them 59-0 last year. Was hoping to get an extra half point, but does not appear likely right now but I made this line lower so there appears to be value on the home dog in my eyes. College Station is a tough place to play and the Aggies run the type of up-tempo spread based offense that has given the Tide the trouble over the last few years so guess what, I'm on the dog once again.

 

[indiana]

S/$.........nice write ups..........good luck with this weeks action..........indy

 

[sendacash]

Good luck to you this week as well, Indy.

 

[sendacash]

Oklahoma -3.5

We held out for the extra half point and so my token favorite on this card will be the Oklahoma Sooners. From a power ratings standpoint this line looks fair to me, but I think this is a good situation for the Sooners to bounce back after that embarrassing loss last week to Texas down in Dallas. Stoops has always been good in this bounce back roll off a loss going 27-14 ATS since 1998. Kansas State went into Norman and beat the Sooners last year so that provides some extra motivation while Oklahoma has had success against the Wildcats going 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. The Kansas State defense has been great against the run ranking 18th overall thus far, but Oklahoma is no longer a running team now that they mostly throw it via the Air Raid offense. In terms of passing defense, K-State has not fared as well ranking #115th overall. Throw in the 4th quarter meltdown against TCU last week and the blown lead against Okla State the week before and this may be too much for even the great coach Bill Snyder to overcome.

 

[sendacash]

LSU -7

Wow, did not expect to see this number at a discount as the new Fla QB is clearly a downgrade imo and I made this line higher even with Grier. Maybe I'm the sucker, but we shall see

 

[sendacash]

Florida +7

Buying back that LSU play as I don't like the way this line move looks with the vast majority apparently on the Tigers. May have had a few too many adult pops watching the Stanford game when I made that play. Upon further review, I'm concerned that LSU might be a little too one dimensional to cover a number like this as QB Brandon Harris has only completed 57% of his passing attempts with 6.9 YPA. One would think that with everyone stacking the box to stop Fournette that he wold be able to take some more shots down the field against man coverage. Might wait just a bit to see if this line has any chance of going to 7.5 or at least until I can get reduced juice.