Week 7 and more

[russ1945]

Been a busy week. Have not had time to devote to my weekly thread. Here are a few thoughts going into week 7.

In my offseason thread I pointed out that 8 or more teams usually drop from the preseason AP top 25 and that those teams usually do poorly ATS. The teams that replace them and were not in the preseason top 25 usually do well ATS. Let’s see where it stand at this point and time as 7 have already been replaced.

The following teams were in the AP top 25 preseason poll and have since dropped out: South Carolina, LSU, Wisconsin, USC, Clemson, N Carolina and Washington. Combined those teams are 14-22-1 ATS (39%). Keep in mind that Clemson is 4-1 ATS.

The following teams were not in the AP top 25 preseason poll and are now: Miss State, TCU, Arizona, Okla State, E. Carolina, Georgia Tech, Utah. Combined those teams are 24-10 ATS (71%).

So this season is falling in line with past seasons.

Using Power Plays as a reference (yes newsletters contain more than just picks if you take the time to read them thoroughly) here is some interesting info.

Using their toughest schedule list: Auburn has faced the 17[SUP]th[/SUP] toughest offenses in terms of scoring offense, Miss St the 19[SUP]th[/SUP], Ole Miss the 20[SUP]th[/SUP], Arizona the 16[SUP]th[/SUP], Oklahoma the 18[SUP]th[/SUP] Okla State the 12[SUP]th[/SUP], UCLA the 10[SUP]th[/SUP].

Using their toughest schedule list: Miss St has faced the 20[SUP]th[/SUP] toughest defenses in terms of scoring defense, Ole Miss the 18[SUP]th[/SUP], N. Dame the 10[SUP]th[/SUP], Alabama the 7[SUP]th[/SUP], Arizona the 6[SUP]th[/SUP], Oklahoma the 11[SUP]th[/SUP], UCLA the 4[SUP]th[/SUP].

The following current top 25 teams are ranked in the top 25 in scoring offense: Baylor (1), Texas A&M 3, Mich State (5), Georgia (6), Ohio St (7), Oregon tied with E. Carolina (9), TCU (12), Miss State (13), Oklahoma (14), Auburn 15), Nebraska (16), Arizona St (17), Kansas St (18), Arizona (20), Utah (21), Okla State (22).

The following current top 25 teams are ranked in the top 25 in scoring defense: Stanford (1), Ole Miss (2) N. Dame (3), Baylor (5), TCU (7), Auburn (9), Alabama (12), Miss St (22)

As you can see Baylor, Miss St, Auburn and TCU are ranked in the top 25 in both categories.
BOL

 

[Cantpickem]

interesting. thanks

 

[russ1945]

interesting. thanks

Here is some more lol:

Another unique feature provided by Northcoast is that they track their power rankings from the start of the season to the current week of the season. Some teams improve, some do not. Here are a few that have improved: Texas A&M from 129 to 137, Arkansas from 125 to 134, Kentucky from 114 to 123, Ohio St from 129 to 136, Nebraska from 125 to 132, Baylor from 132 to 142, TCU from 130 to 138, W Virginia from 117 to 126, Arizona from 125 to 132, Virginia from 114 to 123, Boston College from 107 to 113, Memphis from 113 to 125, Temple from 118 to 124, E. Carolina from 114 to 124, FIU from 99 to 108, Marshall from 123 to 131, La Tech from 104 to 117, Ga. Southern from 86 to 104.

Some teams with significant drops in their rankings are: S. Carolina from 139 to 126, Vandy from 121 to 11, Michigan from 128 to 118, Texas Tech from 124 to 115, Pitt from 123 to 117, Syracuse from 124 to 115, North Carolina from 131 to 118, Cinn from 121 to 114, Houston from 124 to 118, SMU from 113 to 100, Tulsa from 105 to 99, UNLV from 106 to 97, UTSA from 120 to 112, B Green from 123 to 109, Ball St from 112 to 103, Troy from 105 to 94, Navy from 122 to 111.

If you just scan newsletters you are cheating yourself. There is much more info in them and all you have to do is check them out thoroughly.

 

[CoachCB]

Russ, how about the shit show going on in Gainesville?

 

[tim_dogg]

thanks russ.. bol to you this weekend my friend

 

[russ1945]

Russ, how about the shit show going on in Gainesville?

You would know better than me. As you recall when I said they would not repeat as NC's and Tebow would not make it in the pro's I was dismissed by all the loyal Gator fans. So at least I was right in those instances. I am not sure Muschamp was the right guy mainly because he had never been a HC before. A program like that should always go for a proven entity. Football has evolved and without an effective QB almost any FBS team starts out in the hole. Like Texas, Florida is now in a recruiting whirlwind. Florida St has passed them by, UCF has risen, Miami got a good coach and has weathered a storm. He who hesitates is lost and at this point the entire Athletic Dept needs to be reassessed. It is hard to maintain a program and the word dynasty does not even belong in the conversation anymore. There are too many programs out there that are on the brink and unfortunately Florida is not one of them. Sometimes when you reach the top there is no where to go but down.

 

[russ1945]

thanks russ.. bol to you this weekend my friend

Thanks Tim. Sorry I have been so busy this week. I will update my spreadsheet after this weekend and start getting ready for the end of the season and the bowls. By the way, philsteele.com has an ongoing bowl prediction on his site. He updates it every week. Never too early to start getting ready for the bowls. BOL

 

[russ1945]

I did a quick scan of games in which the favorites had an opening line of 21 or more. I cam up with the following:

YTD favorites that open at -21 or more are 32-27 ATS (55%)

A closer look shows that thru week 4 they were 25-16 (61%)

The past two weeks the favorites that open at -21 or more were 7-11 (39%)

So the trend appears to be in a decline since week 4. Last week they went 2-5 ATS.

 

[russ1945]

Weather update (chances of rain):

70% - Texas, Tenn, Ark
60% - Baylor, Memphis
40% - Temple, NC St, Texas A&M, Hawaii
30% - G Tech, UAB, Clemson, Miss T, Utah St

BOL

 

[United]

thanks for the info

 

[indiana]

R/1945..........appreciate the never ending info that you provide each week...........thank you..............indy

 

[russ1945]

R/1945..........appreciate the never ending info that you provide each week...........thank you..............indy

Just like in baseball you have to touch all the bases no matter how far the ball travels. There are many factors to consider, some short term, some long term, and you have to stay up with all of it to have an edge. It helps to think outside of the box but you should never box yourself into a corner. BOL

 

[CoachCB]

Russ, it's a sad state of affairs down there in Hogtown. Still not sure what Foley was thinking keeping him around another year. Now they're going head to head w/ Michigan for a new coach. You're right about the QB. Driskel is the #1 problem w/ that offense. Luckily (as a Gator fan) the roster is pretty solid, so a new coach can come in and clean the mess up quickly (just need to find a QB). I agreed w/ you on Tebow. Never understood why Gator fans were so hell bent on him being a success in the NFL. Hell, many of them still think it's a conspiracy that he's not playing anymore!