Week 6

[ofred]

Last week:
5-2 on large plays, 4-2 on small plays


Small:

Houston +16 Houston is off of two shutout losses, so I imagine they will switch to Zeon Chriss at QB. He is more mobile than Donovan Smith, and possibly a better passer. Houston has benefitted this year from the many transfers on their defense. They will need to pressure TCU QB Josh Hoover, who is mostly a pocket passer. TCU's run game has been so-so, and I just think Houston steps up here to at least give a great D performance...and moves the ball down the field enough to score a few times. They can run the ball fairly well, and just need some 3rd down passes that keep their drives alive.

UNLV -6.5 My big win last week, so a little hesitant to think they'll dominate again. Syracuse is missing their defensive star and team leader, and their run game is okay but nothing special. But Kyle McCord and his receivers will be a handful for the UNLV D. Can't count on the turnovers from UNLV's defense every week. I do like this spot in the schedule more for UNLV. Syracuse has played every game at home, and now fly to Vegas for a non-conference game in the desert. Late game for them by EST. Also, the UNLV QB Hajj Malik Williams, looks to be an excellent replacement for the guy that quit on his team. Better passer, better runner, and his teammates have welcomed the change.

 

[JBS39]

GL Fred!

 

[bluefish33]

Keep it rolling Fred!!!

 

[ofred]

Large:

Navy -9.5 I know the conventional thinking here is that service academies play close games since they play a similar offense and can prepare better and more easily. But this Air Force team is really so damn inexperienced and without much offense, that I think Navy rolls them. Service academies also seem less affected by being on the road. Air Force also has injury issues and little depth.

Duke +9.5 This Duke team has really defied all expectations. It was supposed to be in rebuild mode, and the thinking is that they are 5-0 because of an easy schedule. Yet if you have seen them play, they will surprise you. The defense is far better and friskier than they were expected to be. Georgia Tech is also having a pretty good season, and Haynes King has played well. The run game is pedestrian. Duke's Maalik Murphy and Star Thomas, and the Duke receiver corps can keep the game close, and have a decent chance of an upset.

Tulane -17 I let this one get away from me by waiting. A 15 point spread, now 17. UAB has a crappy team all over the place, and the defense was stripped off by transfers. The OL is pretty bad although their QB Zeno is okay, but always under duress. Lots of short passes. Tulane is well tested, and except for the Oklahoma QB besting them, they have played really well defensively. They really should have beaten K State. Outplayed them. Tulane has 2 losses and will be up for this one.

 

[indiana]

Fred......here's to a solid winning weekend buddy.....
BOL with all your action......
on Tulane and Navy with you......indy

 

[ofred]

On the Navy game, and the idea that service academy games are usually close scores...there are plenty of examples in past years, and recent years, that when one academy is the superior team, the winning margin is more than 10.

Large:
Clemson -14 (-118) If Clemson hadn't gotten crushed by Georgia early on, this spread would be about 21. I just don't see how this game will be close. Clemson lost to FSU last season at home, so they will be motivated. They have one loss so they cannot afford a 2nd loss. I just don't see how FSU scores other than lucky breaks or special teams. They do have a good kicker. But the FSU OL is a sieve and Brock Glenn will be lucky to escape with his life. DJU is so awful as a passer and yet Glenn couldn't win his spot until DJ got injured. also not impressed with the FSU defense. There are some decent players, but as a unit they are not stout up front, nor great in pass coverage. Cal outplayed FSU but still lost somehow. I like Norvell as a coach, but he lost a lot of talent to the NFL/ graduation, and his offense is a mess.

Pitt -2.5 (-120) Mack Brown is toast, and although he said he won't resign, he will and it will be during the season. Usually UNC starts out with an NFL caliber QB, and a good record. Not his year. They have Criswell, who has been a backup for a long time. Don't be fooled by his 475 yards passing vs. JMU. He had to pass every down to catch up to JMU's 70 points. Pitt's difference maker this year might just be OC Kade Bell. Narduzzi has always been a defensive-minded coach that was happy to grind out run heavy games. Kade Bell has made Pitt an up-tempo offense with a steadily improving freshman QB, and a balanced and unpredictable game plan. UNC just looks like a beaten dog. They will score some here, but will give up more. Pitt is the best D they have faced.

 

[ofred]

Small:

Kansas/ ASU- over 51 Kansas is desperate for a win, and I think they adjust here from their run heavy offense. They have a good receiver group so why not. ASU has also stepped up their passing game in the last 2. This game should be a close battle that will necessitate scoring and a back and forth with the lead. ASU QB Sam Leavitt has started to look more confident with his team's passing attack.

Texas Tech/ Arizona- over 63.5 I can see why this total is high. Both have really strong balanced offenses, with QBs that can buy time and pass downfield. Arizona held Utah to 10 last week, but Utah QB Isaac Wilson played poorly, and I don't expect Arizona's defense to hold up that well since they were gashed defensively in the transfer portal and in graduation. Tech's defense is also known for poor tackling and coverage.

CSU +11 Oregon State has played crappy teams and Oregon. It's hard to say where they are at. But my eye test of them says they are weak defensively and I think CSU can take advantage of that. OSU's kicking game is also a mess. I guess I expect that CSU's passing game might finally open it up and have the players to do so. OSU gave up 8.8 ypc vs. Purdue.

 

[ofred]

Houston looking good so far, especially with 16 points.
Small:
JMU -9 (-112) 1H
JMU -16 (-113) ULM is 3-1 and have surprised us all. Yet they really have a pretty bad offense and QB situation. Part of this play is the great disparity between QBs here. I don't expect Barnett and JMU to drop 50 or 60 on ULM, but I just think the Warhawks will have problems keeping up. A sell high scenario with ULM.

Utah State +27 Boise's Ashton Jeanty looks like a Heisman candidate so far. But you know the wear and tear a RB takes and he ran it 26 times last week. I expect Boise will take some of the pressure off of him this week and let others run more often. Utah State also has enough offense to score and hold possession. Back door cover always a possibility.

 

[ofred]

Observations from friday games:
*MSU defense can physically match up to Oregon, but MSU offense is terrible with Aidan Chiles. Scrawny guy with little in the way of any touch on his passes.
* Kyle McCord looks good for Syracuse, and can't see why Ohio State let him go. UNLV has some speedy guys offensively.
* Jacksonville game: why you bet the game not the 1H. Really bad teams can't play an entire game competitively, but they can hang around for a half.

 

[lakrfan2000]

Observations from friday games:
*MSU defense can physically match up to Oregon, but MSU offense is terrible with Aidan Chiles. Scrawny guy with little in the way of any touch on his passes.
* Kyle McCord looks good for Syracuse, and can't see why Ohio State let him go. UNLV has some speedy guys offensively.
* Jacksonville game: why you bet the game not the 1H. Really bad teams can't play an entire game competitively, but they can hang around for a half.

100!

 

[Selectrick]

Nice Friday night my man, keep up the great work!
Cheers!

 

[AlistairCookie]

Thanks Fred - always love your writes ups. I’d offer that there’s no way they rest Jeanty - he’s at least one of if not the favorite for Heisman right now.

 

[fadetheaction]

Good insight-Thanks

 

[phokingood]

Fred do you have any insight on the UW game. I know you have an eye for them pnw teams

 

[rcdjbp]

Al’s Top 10 went 6-4 for week 6

 

[ofred]

Could have gone 4-0 with a push if I had taken Duke +10. Good day. Clemson game was frustrating as they completely dominated, but kept settling for FGs (or missed FGs). FSU crossed the 50 twice and scored 2 TDs. I can imagine someone with Clemson -16 or -17 feeling bad.