Week 6

ofred · Oct 5, 2023

YTD: 23-22, -3.98 units Can't complain too much. Have had a pretty poor season, but am only down about 4 units. Got a feeling this week will be profitable.

Lean:
Nebraska +3.5 Not much on the weekday games. Nothing tonight. Nebraska got beat badly by Michigan, but at least there is a sense that their program is on the way up. Illinois just lost so much talent to the NFL on both sides of the ball. And their OC and QB situation looks to be a problem all year. Nebraska QB is also not much of a passer, but at least he knows his limitations.

On to Saturday....

VegasKnows · Oct 5, 2023

Good luck ofred, looks good!

Nice Husker homer article that points out some good stats; https://www.dailynebraskan.com/spor...cle_a17f7b06-6305-11ee-922b-473ee73f4667.html

ofred · Oct 5, 2023

Thanks Vegas. I appreciate the homer articles along with the critical ones. Morning games:

3.3* Maryland +20 With a hot QB like Maryland has, you always have pretty good chance to win a bet with this many points. Last season, Maryland finally broke the skid of getting hammered by OSU and Michigan- looking competitive in both games. Tagovailoa also has playmakers that will keep the Ohio State defense honest. I like Kyle McCord, but like most past Buckeye new QBs, his playbook is somewhat limited. Lots of running, shorter passes. And he might not be quite as dynamic as their QBs of the past 5-10 years. Maryland has to limit OSU's run game somewhat without completely shutting it down- they won't shut it down.

3.2* Oklahoma/ Texas- over 60 (-112) The spread has come down to 5 or 5.5. Dillon Gabriel looks incredibly efficient and hitting his targets very well in stride. Oklahoma has had an easy schedule, so Texas will be a challenge to stop with their offense clicking. This game reminds me of some Red River games of the past. 2 very good QBs, and watch out...the points should just accumulate. Texas seemingly stymied the Alabama offense, but if you saw that game, Alabama's QB played a terrible game- unlike his recent ones. Also, turnovers didn't help.

ofred · Oct 6, 2023

3* Baylor +2.5 (-113) Texas Tech had a nice win over Houston last week, but they were somewhat outplayed(by 89 yards) by a rebuilding, new Big 12 team. Their best game was vs. Oregon, which they managed to lose late..and then lose the ATS too. Now with Shough out at QB, Tech has Morton in there- a guy that looks kind of awkward as a passer. Tech's defense is vulnerable as is Baylor's. But with Blake Shapen back at QB for Baylor, they now have a run game AND a passing attack. Just got a sense that Baylor is turning their season around. Besides, Tech has been dreadful on the road this year, losing to WVU and Wyoming. Something is wrong in that program.

ofred · Oct 6, 2023

2.4* Notre Dame -6 (-115) Normally after a team has played week after week, like ND has, they are a team I wouldn't touch. Barely beating Duke, Losing a tight one to OSU, etc. It's been a grind. But I really like this ND team, and don't really see any glaring weaknesses. Louisville is undefeated, but has played a soft schedule. Their star RB got stuffed last week vs. NC St, and I think ND will do the same. I also think the ND pass rush will cause Jack Plummer some problems, possibly causing a turnover or 2. Louisville has also not faced one decent QB so far. And yet they let the Indiana QB and BC QBs to play their best games.

2* ASU +3.5 This is a situational play. This transfer-heavy Colorado team has played USC, Oregon, and a double OT win vs. state rival CSU...5 games in a row, with all the D. Sanders spotlight, the media everywhere, and I have to think a little exhaustion might come in. Now they go to Tempe and play a game that should be in the 90s for 60 minutes. ASU is desperate for a win, and nearly knocked off Cal last week. They might have found a QB, and have some players coming back to better health. ASU really wants this game, Colorado just wants to survive until their bye. Oh, and the Buffs have some injuries in their secondary on a poor defense.

ofred · Oct 6, 2023

1.2* Wyoming +6 Fresno is lucky this isn't one of those late season games in Laramie, which is usually windy and cold. Still, Wyoming has been a tough team to defeat at home. Once again, they have a good run game, a decent defense, and a QB that struggles with accuracy, but just has to be a game manager. At least, Andrew Peasley has extensive experience. He knows what he can do and can't do. Fresno has played a soft schedule, and doesn't have much of a run game, but they are due for a poor outing. Their impressive win at ASU might be their best outing of the season. I'm not sold on them, and think they'll lose 3-4 games in 2023- this being one of them.

1* Kentucky +14.5 This is probably a public dog. Carson Beck is not the problem in why Georgia is not dominating anymore. Like Alabama, you can't lose dozens of great players to the NFL, year after year, and always be able to replace them immediately. The Georgia run game is definitely not as dynamic, nor does their D look nearly as dominant. They still have studs sprinkled in there, but not all over on both sides of the ball. I also think Devin Leary will play better for Kentucky. They have run the ball well, the defense is pretty good, and now need Leary to look as good as he has in past seasons. I always thought his OCs at NC State underused his talents and ran an unimaginative offense.

1* Miss. State -12 1H I haven't hit many of these recent 1H plays, but man do the Bulldogs need a fast start here after their last 2 games. Besides, WMU is a bad team, and now on the road just for a paycheck.

1* Syracuse +10 This line stretched out from 8.5, which makes me suspicious, but UNC is overdue for a letdown. Never been a Mack Brown fan, and his teams have SO many letdowns over the past decades...I can see Syracuse rebounding well from their loss with Clemson. Their TOs killed them, but really Syracuse is pretty well-rounded team. Syracuse has a decent chance of an upset here.

indiana · Oct 6, 2023

Fred.....here's to a solid and profitable weekend buddy....
BOL with all your action....on many of these with you....
thank you.....indy

ofred · Oct 7, 2023

1* Virginia Tech +24 FSU just doesn't seem like that kind of team that will blow out a team like VT. They beat Clemson in OT even though Clemson seemed like the better team for much of the game. FSU hasn't really run the ball all that well. VT, with Kyron Drones at QB, has been able to play competitively in all his starts. He's got lots of experience. Since the 2nd half of the Rutgers game, VT has been a better team. And 24 points seems generous in this matchup.

RussellPeters · Oct 7, 2023

Nice call on the Texas over! Maryland should have covered, that was a tough push. Good luck on the rest.

ofred · Oct 7, 2023

Should've gone 2-0 on early games, but have to settle for the push. Maryland blew that cover...but still feel a bit lucky grabbing it at 20 and not the 18 or 19 later on- which I would have taken.