Winner Thursday.
22-14-1 +740
Sunday
Well there's gonna be a rare kinda stink in this thread this week - the peculiar stink of Big Favs. You won't smell it here often so don't buy any special clothespins.
First let's get the Week 5 big picture out of the way.
Week 5 since 2001:
60 Home Favs
68 Road Dogs
27 Road Favs
31 Home Dogs
A couple of interesting isolations:
25 Div Rd Dogs
15 Div Home Favs
8 Div Road Dogs of 7 up
4 Div Home Favs of 7 up
15 Non Div HF of 7 up
10 Non Div Rd Fav of 7 up
One anecdotal note about favs - when they seem too high they are a play on. When they they seem too low they are a play against. The book knows how to set his sucker lines.
My Plays:
Atlanta -7 +104 (vs Wash)
Week 5 undefeated non Division Home teams are 6-0 ATS since 2005.
Green Bay -8' -109 (vs St L)
Ditto above explanation.
Oakland +4 -104 (vs Denver)
Week 5, .500 or worse record with at least one win Home Dogs when not lined as Double Digits; now playing an undefeated team are 7-1 ATS since 2005.
more coming
22-14-1 +740
Sunday
Well there's gonna be a rare kinda stink in this thread this week - the peculiar stink of Big Favs. You won't smell it here often so don't buy any special clothespins.
First let's get the Week 5 big picture out of the way.
Week 5 since 2001:
60 Home Favs
68 Road Dogs
27 Road Favs
31 Home Dogs
A couple of interesting isolations:
25 Div Rd Dogs
15 Div Home Favs
8 Div Road Dogs of 7 up
4 Div Home Favs of 7 up
15 Non Div HF of 7 up
10 Non Div Rd Fav of 7 up
One anecdotal note about favs - when they seem too high they are a play on. When they they seem too low they are a play against. The book knows how to set his sucker lines.
My Plays:
Atlanta -7 +104 (vs Wash)
Week 5 undefeated non Division Home teams are 6-0 ATS since 2005.
Green Bay -8' -109 (vs St L)
Ditto above explanation.
Oakland +4 -104 (vs Denver)
Week 5, .500 or worse record with at least one win Home Dogs when not lined as Double Digits; now playing an undefeated team are 7-1 ATS since 2005.
more coming
Add:
Detroit +4 -102 (vs Azo)
So last year Detroit was 7-1 SU at Ford Field with their only loss being by 3 points. Now they are 4 point pups. Remember that fumble on Seattle's 6" line with 1:51 to go as the Lions were about to take a 17-13 lead by the highest paid receiver in the game against the SB loser in their unforgiving park on Sunday night for all the world to see? Remember that? Did you ever hear of a "pride of lions"? You're gonna see 'em today in Detroit.
Detroit +4 -102 (vs Azo)
So last year Detroit was 7-1 SU at Ford Field with their only loss being by 3 points. Now they are 4 point pups. Remember that fumble on Seattle's 6" line with 1:51 to go as the Lions were about to take a 17-13 lead by the highest paid receiver in the game against the SB loser in their unforgiving park on Sunday night for all the world to see? Remember that? Did you ever hear of a "pride of lions"? You're gonna see 'em today in Detroit.
