6* Washington The common thinking is that Washington couldn't possibly be that motivated to play Oregon after the Ducks lost again Saturday, and UW beat up Stanford. But that thinking would be wrong. First off, the Huskies haven't beaten Oregon in like 12 years, and certainly every Husky on this year's team remember the last few years losing to the Ducks, sometimes by large margins. This is a rivalry game going way back. If Washington was going to UCLA or somewhere else, I'd be worried about this kind of spread. But they'll WANT this game. Petersen and a couple of players said after the Stanford game that it was a big win, but they are looking at next week with Oregon as a monkey to get off their backs. UDub also has the close win at Arizona to remind them that they will need their A game to win.
One angle on this play is that there should be no pretensions at all about Oregon being Oregon of the past. This team is a mess and they are not used to losing. Can't handle losing. The Ducks had an emotional, players-only meeting before the Wazzu game, and then came out and played terribly. I didn't see an inspired team. If their meeting couldn't get the Duck players and coaches to at least be competitive, then I think we'll see an emotionally drained, low confidence Ducks' team this week. Oregon was down 25 late, before scoring a TD in garbage time to close the gap to 18. But if you saw the game, here are the positives: Royce Freeman is still a beast. He and Charles Nelson's 100 yard kickoff return kept the Ducks from getting beaten by 30+. Yet that was against a pretty poor Cougar defense. I think Washington's D will make Freeman much less effective. And the Husky secondary will shut down some of the Oregon passing game. UW's secondary and D, in general, showed what they got in the Stanford game. It was no fluke- they made the Stanford offense look bad, and I haven't seen that for a few years.
Another factor here is that the Ducks don't discuss injuries publicly. Go to a website that lists the NCAAF injuries, and you won't see more than 1 or 2 Oregon players on it. (It's like they learned that from Bill Belichick). The Ducks got plenty. First off, they are missing their best OL and LT, Tyrell Crosby, who is gone for the year. OU now starts 4 redshirt freshmen on the OL, and you if saw them the past weeks, their QB was hurried passing constantly. If Colorado and WSU can harass Prukop all game, I like the prospects of Washington's DL doing the same- but more so. Against a very good Stanford OL, they closed the running lanes on McCaffrey and pressured the QB. Dwayne Stanford, the #2 Ducks WR injured his knee and is doubtful for Sat. On the defensive side, the Ducks' glaring weakness, the injuries are much worse. They lost Johnny Ragin to an injury, and he definitely won't play. He is their senior leader on the field, popular in the locker room, and their best LB. In fact, the whole LB corps is banged up. Their best freshman defensive player, Troy Dye, also didn't play last Saturday. Two other LBs are questionable, and starting DLs, Jelks and Manu are both out. Considering how the Husky offense is growing in leaps and bounds, week by week, I expect they will be able to run the ball really well vs. the Ducks front 7. Wazzu ran for 280 on the ground, and they never run the ball like that, ever! Colorado ran for 260 on the ground. This will be the Ducks downfall. That kind of gouging, with play action passes by Jake Browning, will keep Oregon's D reeling, and their offense off the field.
Finally, The Huskies. In their Stanford game, they proved to everyone just how physical they are, and played a very disciplined game. Petersen and his coaching staff has done an excellent job and has the respect of his players. Helfrich, maybe not so much. This Oregon team loses two of their veteran leaders, Ragin and Stanford, has a decent offense, but a defense that's beginning to look Texas Tech-like. This play says Washington comes to Autzen motivated, and that Oregon is a shell of their former selves. Remember their 42 point loss at home to Utah last year. And another homeless to Wash. St. These Ducks ARE that team that blew a 31 point lead to TCU last season.
One angle on this play is that there should be no pretensions at all about Oregon being Oregon of the past. This team is a mess and they are not used to losing. Can't handle losing. The Ducks had an emotional, players-only meeting before the Wazzu game, and then came out and played terribly. I didn't see an inspired team. If their meeting couldn't get the Duck players and coaches to at least be competitive, then I think we'll see an emotionally drained, low confidence Ducks' team this week. Oregon was down 25 late, before scoring a TD in garbage time to close the gap to 18. But if you saw the game, here are the positives: Royce Freeman is still a beast. He and Charles Nelson's 100 yard kickoff return kept the Ducks from getting beaten by 30+. Yet that was against a pretty poor Cougar defense. I think Washington's D will make Freeman much less effective. And the Husky secondary will shut down some of the Oregon passing game. UW's secondary and D, in general, showed what they got in the Stanford game. It was no fluke- they made the Stanford offense look bad, and I haven't seen that for a few years.
Another factor here is that the Ducks don't discuss injuries publicly. Go to a website that lists the NCAAF injuries, and you won't see more than 1 or 2 Oregon players on it. (It's like they learned that from Bill Belichick). The Ducks got plenty. First off, they are missing their best OL and LT, Tyrell Crosby, who is gone for the year. OU now starts 4 redshirt freshmen on the OL, and you if saw them the past weeks, their QB was hurried passing constantly. If Colorado and WSU can harass Prukop all game, I like the prospects of Washington's DL doing the same- but more so. Against a very good Stanford OL, they closed the running lanes on McCaffrey and pressured the QB. Dwayne Stanford, the #2 Ducks WR injured his knee and is doubtful for Sat. On the defensive side, the Ducks' glaring weakness, the injuries are much worse. They lost Johnny Ragin to an injury, and he definitely won't play. He is their senior leader on the field, popular in the locker room, and their best LB. In fact, the whole LB corps is banged up. Their best freshman defensive player, Troy Dye, also didn't play last Saturday. Two other LBs are questionable, and starting DLs, Jelks and Manu are both out. Considering how the Husky offense is growing in leaps and bounds, week by week, I expect they will be able to run the ball really well vs. the Ducks front 7. Wazzu ran for 280 on the ground, and they never run the ball like that, ever! Colorado ran for 260 on the ground. This will be the Ducks downfall. That kind of gouging, with play action passes by Jake Browning, will keep Oregon's D reeling, and their offense off the field.
Finally, The Huskies. In their Stanford game, they proved to everyone just how physical they are, and played a very disciplined game. Petersen and his coaching staff has done an excellent job and has the respect of his players. Helfrich, maybe not so much. This Oregon team loses two of their veteran leaders, Ragin and Stanford, has a decent offense, but a defense that's beginning to look Texas Tech-like. This play says Washington comes to Autzen motivated, and that Oregon is a shell of their former selves. Remember their 42 point loss at home to Utah last year. And another homeless to Wash. St. These Ducks ARE that team that blew a 31 point lead to TCU last season.
Yes. FSU will get cornholed by the Canes, Noles defense cant stop anyone, much less a seasoned qb coached by Richt. Fishers choosing to throw his players under the bus to save face on HIS bad decision to enter a bidding war with Auburn over Kelly is not going over well in locker room. Poorly coached Canes teams have kept it interesting during the 6 game winning streak....now we have a motivated, well coached team with an experienced signal caller vs a team that will mail it in. Miami is going to roll in this one, big.
As for Washington, check Conans post, he is spot on.
As for Washington, check Conans post, he is spot on.
Listen the the press conference, and player comments post game. Cracks in the foundation are starting to surface, divisions between offense/defense, defensive players dont believe in what Kelly is asking them to do. Tricket should have been sent packing years ago, and Kelly never should have been promoted. These guys are all hunting buddies....friendships are affecting the evaluation of assistants, ala Jeff Bowden.
6* Miami FL Miami is a bit of a risk because of their schedule. They looked very good, and dominant at times, in two road games at Appalachian State and Georgia Tech. But FSU is whole nother ball game. What makes this game attractive is that Florida's State's defense is just awful this year. I have watched them play in the UNC game and the Louisville game, and all I can think is,"These are 4 and 5 star recruits?" Are they poorly coached? They miss assignments, look lost at times, and were exposed with UNC, crushed by Louisville, and gave up 28 to Ole Miss in one half. I think the perception is that FSU has too much defensive talent to not be great. From what I've seen, they are the most overrated defense in the country. In fact, if you go back to their bowl game with Houston, and leave out pipsqueak Charleston Southern, they've given up 38, 37, 63, 35 and 34 points to their last 5 opponents. FSU is actually getting pushed around on the DL, and at times UNC and Louisville seemed to do what they wanted vs. this defense.
Miami may be a risk, but under Mark Richt, they are finally a disciplined team that no longer pouts, primps or piles up the stupid penalties. Of course, winning does that. I'm not sure if Miami is for real, but I think they are. They lost two close games the last two years, years when Miami was struggling to get to a decent bowl. I think I can say that they'll at least be in this game, but more likely win it. Miami has 9 returning offensive starters, two very good backs in Walton and Yearby(each with over 7 ypc), a future high First Round draft pick QB in Brad Kaaya, and Stacey Coley as a great go-to WR, Ahhmon Richards as their freshman star, along with talent at TE. Miami is at home in what should be their biggest game in 2-3 years.
FSU has pretty good offense of their own, but they are inconsistent. Deondre Francois, a freshman, has been great at times, and not effective at other times. His OL and inexperience has given up 15 sacks already. Francois looked like a star in the 2nd half Saturday, and likewise in the 2nd half vs. Ole Miss. But he played poorly vs. Louisville, and in both 1st halves against UNC and Ole MIss. Overall, they have a future star, but right now his OL and Deondre's inexperience gives Miami's defense an edge. Francois and the FSU running game will have some success, no doubt, but this Miami defense has played fast and aggressive, and will be able to penetrate the FSU line causing some havoc. Louisville did it with ease, and I think the Canes will use a similar attack style. Francois is the kind of mobile QB that can make them pay, but he can also make mistakes. The FSU play calling lacks creativity, or should I say unpredictability. The WR corps is okay, but blocks poorly, and I'm not sure they have a real go-to stud out there. And are the Seminole players uninspired by Jimbo?
I like this play because Miami has not been intimidated by the Seminoles even when they were struggling in the past, Miami is at home, FSU is coming off a grueling schedule and is a little more beat up, a possible letdown from the last second UNC game, Miami hasn't had a solid coaching staff for years and now do, FSU's hopes of a playoff spot are kaput, and basically this Seminole defense is just way below their norm.
Miami may be a risk, but under Mark Richt, they are finally a disciplined team that no longer pouts, primps or piles up the stupid penalties. Of course, winning does that. I'm not sure if Miami is for real, but I think they are. They lost two close games the last two years, years when Miami was struggling to get to a decent bowl. I think I can say that they'll at least be in this game, but more likely win it. Miami has 9 returning offensive starters, two very good backs in Walton and Yearby(each with over 7 ypc), a future high First Round draft pick QB in Brad Kaaya, and Stacey Coley as a great go-to WR, Ahhmon Richards as their freshman star, along with talent at TE. Miami is at home in what should be their biggest game in 2-3 years.
FSU has pretty good offense of their own, but they are inconsistent. Deondre Francois, a freshman, has been great at times, and not effective at other times. His OL and inexperience has given up 15 sacks already. Francois looked like a star in the 2nd half Saturday, and likewise in the 2nd half vs. Ole Miss. But he played poorly vs. Louisville, and in both 1st halves against UNC and Ole MIss. Overall, they have a future star, but right now his OL and Deondre's inexperience gives Miami's defense an edge. Francois and the FSU running game will have some success, no doubt, but this Miami defense has played fast and aggressive, and will be able to penetrate the FSU line causing some havoc. Louisville did it with ease, and I think the Canes will use a similar attack style. Francois is the kind of mobile QB that can make them pay, but he can also make mistakes. The FSU play calling lacks creativity, or should I say unpredictability. The WR corps is okay, but blocks poorly, and I'm not sure they have a real go-to stud out there. And are the Seminole players uninspired by Jimbo?
I like this play because Miami has not been intimidated by the Seminoles even when they were struggling in the past, Miami is at home, FSU is coming off a grueling schedule and is a little more beat up, a possible letdown from the last second UNC game, Miami hasn't had a solid coaching staff for years and now do, FSU's hopes of a playoff spot are kaput, and basically this Seminole defense is just way below their norm.
Mostly at 8, but I guess bettors see a letdown for UW after their Stanford win. Huskies get an extra day after winning Friday, and I don't see any letdown based on the rivalry here and the 12 straight losses. If you get 7.5, snap it up.
4* New Mexico/ Boise: I have seen Boise play as much as anyone, and I don't get all the love. I know their reputation, but these point spreads recently are too much based on their rep of the past 10 years. The line last Saturday was at -23 vs. Utah State…and Utah State is certainly mediocre, but at least they have a QB and an average defense. 23! From what I've seen of Boise defensively is that they've played some really BAD offenses in Oregon State and Utah State. Wazzu started off really slow(as they are known to do) at Boise, but then torched them for 520 yards, and at times it looked too easy. Boise lost 2 fairly high NFL draft picks at S and LB, and 2 more defensive players at LB and CB as UDFA to NFL teams. That's a lot of talent for a team that recruits at about 70th in the nation. They held USU so well because honestly Kent Myers was a one man show. Devante Mays, their stud RB did not play, and there wasn't anyone else that could gain more than 2 yards. So defensively, Boise is down about 2 notches from last year.
Offensively, you have to love Jeremy McNichols. 30 carries for 142 yards Saturday. But he's more workhorse than speed burner. And with a 17 point spread all those carries can burn a lot of clock. Rypien is the guy I think that gets way too much acclaim. Much of his stats over the last 2 years was vs. some poor competition, he's only passing at 58%, is turnover prone, and sometimes looks like a statue back there. Not a running threat. Boise has a couple of good WRs in Sperlock and Wilson, but Rypien sometimes misses the throws... and his OL lost 2 more players to the NFL. Boise also lost a starting safety for the year to injury and has a starting CB suspended for the 1H this week.
New Mexico doesn't deserve all that much praise for their season, but Bob Davie has done a very good job here the past 2 seasons. Last year they ended the year going 6-4, beating AF, Boise, Utah State and covering in 7 of those last 10. They didn't get blown out in their losses, although lost by 24 @ ASU early in the year. New Mexico has a pretty good triple option attack which gobbles up yards and the clock. They can score on Boise. But their passing attack is rarely used, even on 3rd downs. They might use it more vs. Boise since they're better competition, but really this offense is just much more effective running a difficult to defend option attack. Coach Davie is a long time defensive coach, and he is frustrated with his defense. They are a veteran unit who played well at times last year in sort of a bend don't break mode. From what I've read, that will be his emphasis this week as they prepare for Boise. The front 7 is almost all back, sprinkled with some talented young guys. I like this play also because NM has to be excited to play Boise at home more than Boise is excited to travel there(and not on their blue turf), NM knows they can beat Boise as they did last year, and also you've got to love 17 points in a game NM will play to win not cover.
3* VTech/ UNC
Adding 1* VTech ML +115 A little extra on VT for the win. UNC just won the Super Bowl vs. the Seminoles, or at least in their mind, it was comparable to that. UNC is much more likely to have an emotional comedown from a game like that than not. When was the last time the Tar Heels won a game like this against one of the big boys? Long time. Clemson beats them every year. Lost their opener to Georgia. Lost their bowl game badly to Baylor. 2 years ago they lost to Miami, Clemson, VT and Notre Dame. Lost their last 3 bowl games. So yes, this win in Tallahassee was a huge win in that UNC never wins these types of games. They have the adulation of their fans, media attention and maybe Trubisky for the Heisman. Virginia Tech, meanwhile sits at 3-1, with little notice, and coming off a bye.
It's easy to get mesmerized by Mitch Trubisky's completion numbers. No doubt, he's been extremely efficient and the key to their success. But UNC hasn't played anyone with a defense as good as Tech's. And please don't say FSU- they rank in the middle of the pack of FBS teams and that even considers their strength of schedule. Pitt's D stinks, James Madison, Georgia's D is so-so by SEC standards and held them in check, Illinois. VT is the more well rounded team even if NC has the QB edge. But even that's not much of an edge. Jerrod Evans has been stellar for the Hokies, and improving quickly week by week. Ask the Hokie fans- they are ecstatic in what they've seen. Evan has 13 TDs to 1 pick, and that one pick was on a tipped pass. He's only been sacked 5 times, and is a danger to break off a big gain as he is a true dual threat, with very good passing accuracy, an elusive runner, and the good decision making and leadership to make it all work. VT and UNC both have pretty good running games, but VT has the much better front DL and secondary, and this is where they win this game.
Justin Fuente breathed some life into Tech, and is one of those offensive minds that creates confusion in the opponents D. At Memphis and TCU, he used formations that stretch the defense, and uses similar backfield motions and alignments designed to fool the opposition. He'll run any play from any formation. VT also retained the great DC Bud Foster. Tech also looks life their old selves on special teams, blocking punts, and covering KOs and punts well, making this as important as the O and the D. VT held Tennessee to their lowest yard total of the year, but lost 5 fumbles and was penalized over 100 yards. This was probably a lesson that needed to be learned but I don't think hurt their confidence as they beat BC and ECU by 40+ points in the following weeks. VT wins… You heard it here.
Adding 1* VTech ML +115 A little extra on VT for the win. UNC just won the Super Bowl vs. the Seminoles, or at least in their mind, it was comparable to that. UNC is much more likely to have an emotional comedown from a game like that than not. When was the last time the Tar Heels won a game like this against one of the big boys? Long time. Clemson beats them every year. Lost their opener to Georgia. Lost their bowl game badly to Baylor. 2 years ago they lost to Miami, Clemson, VT and Notre Dame. Lost their last 3 bowl games. So yes, this win in Tallahassee was a huge win in that UNC never wins these types of games. They have the adulation of their fans, media attention and maybe Trubisky for the Heisman. Virginia Tech, meanwhile sits at 3-1, with little notice, and coming off a bye.
It's easy to get mesmerized by Mitch Trubisky's completion numbers. No doubt, he's been extremely efficient and the key to their success. But UNC hasn't played anyone with a defense as good as Tech's. And please don't say FSU- they rank in the middle of the pack of FBS teams and that even considers their strength of schedule. Pitt's D stinks, James Madison, Georgia's D is so-so by SEC standards and held them in check, Illinois. VT is the more well rounded team even if NC has the QB edge. But even that's not much of an edge. Jerrod Evans has been stellar for the Hokies, and improving quickly week by week. Ask the Hokie fans- they are ecstatic in what they've seen. Evan has 13 TDs to 1 pick, and that one pick was on a tipped pass. He's only been sacked 5 times, and is a danger to break off a big gain as he is a true dual threat, with very good passing accuracy, an elusive runner, and the good decision making and leadership to make it all work. VT and UNC both have pretty good running games, but VT has the much better front DL and secondary, and this is where they win this game.
Justin Fuente breathed some life into Tech, and is one of those offensive minds that creates confusion in the opponents D. At Memphis and TCU, he used formations that stretch the defense, and uses similar backfield motions and alignments designed to fool the opposition. He'll run any play from any formation. VT also retained the great DC Bud Foster. Tech also looks life their old selves on special teams, blocking punts, and covering KOs and punts well, making this as important as the O and the D. VT held Tennessee to their lowest yard total of the year, but lost 5 fumbles and was penalized over 100 yards. This was probably a lesson that needed to be learned but I don't think hurt their confidence as they beat BC and ECU by 40+ points in the following weeks. VT wins… You heard it here.
3* BYU/ Michigan St.- over 50 This total is this low because we are so used to the Spartans being so good defensively. This year's team is lacking all those NFL players of the past, and has other issues. All of their injuries/ suspensions are on the defensive side. The front 7 on the defense has been unMSU-like because they no longer get much pressure on opposing QBs, or get that push on the OL. They will be missing Malik McDowell for 1H(suspension) and Riley Burroughs for the game(injury), two of their better front guys. DT Raequean Williams and LB Jon Reschke, also starters, are out. Dantonio doesn't talk about injuries, but he's got other defenders banged up as well. Now BYU has finally found their offensive game vs. WVU and Toledo, two decent defensive teams(especially WV). Taysom Hill has once again become that dangerous QB who is a handful to bring down, hard to capture and will take off at any time. He is a 60% passer, but has a very experienced and deep WR corp that along with RB Jamaal Williams and Hill's running, makes BYU's offense difficult to defend. MSU is just nowhere near the same defensively, and BYU I think will hit the 30 mark here.
Now who made this BYU schedule? It is beyond brutal. No bye until October 29th after playing UCLA, Utah, MSU, Toledo, Miss. St, WVU, Arizona, Boise…Well, this is their 6th game in a row, and if you have played football, it's usually the defense that gets broken down and bruised. Maybe that's why they gave up almost 700 yards to Toledo and 481 to an offensively challenged WVU team. Worse yet, this is their 4th road game. These guys are students too! MSU's offense isn't that scary, but they do have a balanced attack, and can take advantage of this BYU D. Also, they will be forced to keep scoring to keep up with BYU. I think this will actually be a run heavy game that piles on the points. But both teams can pass effectively, and will take their shots down field. Plenty of offensive talent here with 2 defenses that will be on their heels. Dry weather expected.
Now who made this BYU schedule? It is beyond brutal. No bye until October 29th after playing UCLA, Utah, MSU, Toledo, Miss. St, WVU, Arizona, Boise…Well, this is their 6th game in a row, and if you have played football, it's usually the defense that gets broken down and bruised. Maybe that's why they gave up almost 700 yards to Toledo and 481 to an offensively challenged WVU team. Worse yet, this is their 4th road game. These guys are students too! MSU's offense isn't that scary, but they do have a balanced attack, and can take advantage of this BYU D. Also, they will be forced to keep scoring to keep up with BYU. I think this will actually be a run heavy game that piles on the points. But both teams can pass effectively, and will take their shots down field. Plenty of offensive talent here with 2 defenses that will be on their heels. Dry weather expected.
1* Arkansas St +7.5 ASU has been awful this year, but it's almost like they are snake bitten. The Red Wolves have a fairly veteran team(returning 7 of their top 8 tacklers) coming off a 9-4 season, and in the same systems as a year ago. They seemed to have improved their poor passing game with a QB switch(Justice Hansen at 61% the past 2 games) and that goes at GS's biggest weakness- their pass defense. Georgia Southern struggled vs. a very bad ULM team and didn't exactly put away another awful team, S. Ala. ASU is at home and I think they come to play for their first win with extreme motivation. GS keeps close to the vest on injuries, but there's a good chance Kevin Ellison doesn't play with an injured elbow. He's one of the 2 headed QB system GS plays. If ASU can limit the GS run game, then GS will struggle to pass- which they almost never do.
