Week 6 Plays (17-4 81% YTD)

[aiverson]

Week 6 Plays (total play was e-mailed out Saturday AM, Phi play was added today):

TB/Car O 36.5
Phi -4.5

Week 6 Writeups:

TB/Car O 36.5

• Since Gruden took over TB and Fox took over Car (both in 2002), the Over between the two teams has gone a mere 5-7 on an average line of 36.

• However, games in Tampa have gone 4-2 to the over, including 4 straight overs. (Since 2004)
• Not only has this game gone over in TB the last 4 straight years, it has destroyed the over. On an average line of 36.5, the final score has been 52. Carolina has eclipsed 30 points in 3 of the 4, while TB has eclipsed 20 in 3 of the 4. On average, 12 first quarter points have been scored and 26 first half points have been scored. Needing only 11 more to eclipse the average total in the 2nd half. On average, by the end of the 3rd quarter, 40 points have been scored, well exceeding the posted total.
• Tampa Bay's Overs have gone 8-1 in the last 3 seasons in home divisional games. On an average total of 37.5, the average final scores have totaled 44 points.
• In Tampa Bay's last 9 home divisional games, the fewest points TB have scored was 23, save the 2 games started by Gradkowski as QB (6 and 14). On average, they scored 28 points.
• In Tampa Bay's last 10 home divisional games, on average they allowed 24 ppg, ignoring the last 2 w/ Atlanta (where Atlanta scored only 3 and 9 points).
• Thus, an average final score of 28+24 = 52 points
• In Carolina's last 12 road divisional games, on average they scored 32 points, ignoring two road starts by Weinke and Carr (10 and 16 respectively).
• Ignoring those same two contests, Carolina allowed an average of 19 points.
• Thus, an average final score of 32+19 = 51 points
• Under Fox, Carolina is 9-3 for Overs in road divisional games. On an average line of 39.5, the net finals have been 47 points.
• In any of these 12 games where the total was set at 40 or fewer points, the over has hit 6-0, eclipsing the total by an average of 15 points. Granted, 4 of the 6 featured TB, which we mentioned earlier, but the other two, NO and ATL, both went over the posted total by 15 and 10.5 points respectively.

Another angle is previously playing in a low scoring game in Denver the week before:

• Teams who played their last game in Denver w/ a total of 38 or above and the game went under are 14-4-1 to the Over back at home since 2001, on average exceeding a 41 point total by 7 points.
• The 4 losses were the result of vastly 1 sided games: 26-7, 29-3, 19-3 and 28-3.
• If the total in the prior game in Denver was over 41 points, their next game went over 9-1-1 since 2001.
• Since 2003, the over is 10-1 in those games, exceeding a 41 point total by an avg of 12 points.
• Since 1990, if a team played in Denver on a total over 41 points and both team combined for only 34 or fewer points, the over in that team's next game at home is 8-0 ATS.

This line is dead on to what you would expect from these two teams. Especially when you see that TB was just off of a 13-16 loss in Denver, and Carolina is 1-3-1 for Overs so far this season. It makes anyone who is looking at "what have you done for me lately" to hesitate on the Over. Not to mention the average posted totals between these teams in their last 10 meetings is dead on with 36.5. But let's investigate more:

TB's total has gone over 8-1 in 9 home divisional games the last 3 seasons, but they did go Under in their one game so far this season, week 2 vs. Atl. So looking at that game:

• ATL started a rookie QB in his first road game ever, against the infamous Tampa 2.
• Ryan's first 6 drives resulted in two turnovers and 4 punts, almost all drives 3 and outs and advancing no closer than the TB 36.
• ATL made many halftime adjustments, and conducted two sustained drives in the 2nd half, taking the ball to the TB 9 and TB 6 yard lines before settling for 2 FGs.
• In total, ATL had 3 trips inside the TB 15 yard line and came away with only 3 FGs, not surprising for a rookie in his first road game.
• Meanwhile, TB was able to put up 24 points themselves, though 10 were off of turnovers.

In addition, as stated above, the Overs in these two teams last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay have all hit. But let's investigate the QBs of those two teams during that time:

• Wk 17, 2007: Total 36, M. Moore (Car) vs L. McCown (TB) - both throw 2 TDs, final score totaled 54 points
• Wk 3, 2006: Total 34.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 50 points
• Wk 9, 2005: Total 36.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 48 points
• Wk 16, 2004: Total 39, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. B. Griese (TB) - 7 combined passing TDs, final score totaled 57 points

The games in Carolina featured even spottier QBs: two years ago Tampa started Gradkowski, and last year Carolina started Carr.

The point of this analysis is that these games in Tampa went well over the posted total, and none of the four featured Delhomme vs. Garcia. The two best QBs on either team (need to see the health of Garcia to validate).

I believe that if weather does not impact this game too much, we will see an over. Please use your own best judgement and money management given all of the information I have shared with you and make and informed and well thought out play on the game.

A quick note about the final score landing on 36, 37 or 38:

You definitely want to get 36.5 on this game. As I've said in past e-mails regarding the number 37:

[FONT=georgia,serif]In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this: [/FONT] [FONT=georgia,serif]

Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time[/FONT][FONT=georgia,serif]
Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time[/FONT] [FONT=georgia,serif]
Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time[/FONT] [FONT=georgia,serif]
Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time[/FONT] [FONT=georgia,serif]

Therefore, having Over 36.5 would allow you to win on 37, a number that occurs twice as often as 36, 38 or 39.

In[/FONT] addition, in games lined 36, 36.5 or 37:

37 occurs 4.4% of the time, which is 2.4 times as often as 36 occurs (1.8%). The whole key is to win and not to push, so try to get that 36.5.

Phi -4.5

• Philadelphia under Andy Reid is 4-0 SU and ATS as road favorites on the West Coast
• Under Andy Reid, Philly is 6-1 ATS vs. a non-divisional opponent after a loss to a divisional opponent, including 5-1 ATS on the road
• Under Andy Reid, Philly is 5-1 ATS following a loss as a home favorite in their last game, including 3-0 ATS as a favorite.
• Since 2000, the Eagles are 18-5 ATS following a loss
• If favored, they are 10-2 ATS
• I won't mention the specific system, but the Eagles qualify for a 16-4-1 subset of a system since 1990, including 9-0 ATS since 2000, covering an average -4 line by 8 points and winning by an avg of 11 points.
• As a larger subset, they are 33-10-2 ATS since 1990 and in non-divisional games since 2000, they are 14-0 SU and 11-2-1 ATS, covering a -6 point line by an average of 8 points.

Short and simple as time is short. This is a play that I have had on my radar, and though not the strongest of my plays, it was one that I could not find good reasons to remove. I will take Philly and hope for a 5 point cover.

 

[Fuzzyxlogikk]

i do like, both plays i already had high on my list,81% is nice, good luck

 

[aiverson]

The last time Jake Delhomme and the Panthers did not score a TD in a game was over two full seasons ago, week 1 of 2006.

The last time Jake Delhomme threw 3 interceptions in a regular season game was a full three years ago, week 6 of 2005.

Since Jake Delhomme came to the Panthers in 2003 and started for the team, the only game where he threw 3 ints and Carolina scored not a single TD was yesterday.

Suffice it to say, I am still disgusted over their inability to put up a TD, thus depriving us of a 2-0 day. Some call it a "bad beat", I just call it a random and unlikely event. For all of it to happen after a first quarter which played out so perfectly:

Two first quarter TDs and Carolina w/ the ball on 1st and 10 at the TB 14 yard line to start the 2nd quarter.

was just a tragic turn of events for us. My system showed a TB win and cover, w/ them scoring 23 to 24 points. They put up 27. However, it showed Carolina scoring approx. 20 in the loss. We only needed them to put up 1 TD and they could not get there.

The Over play came from my Overs system which was 4-1-1 (80%) since the I started running it this season in Week 4, and was 21-1 last season (95%) and 17-5 (77%) in 2006.

I am disappointed I cannot say it is now 5-1-1 (83%) on the season and we were 2-0 on the week. But such is life and we must move on.

I can tell you that the occurrence of such an unlikely event should be unlikely and hopefully will not make another appearance in the remainder of the games we play this season. I do my best to narrow down games to those which are the most likely to hit. Sometimes, though, events so unlikely to occur, do occur which make those plays which are highly likely to hit, miss, and we are left out. Again, I will continue to work just as hard to keep our high percentage going throughout the rest of the season and hopefully we will not be on the receiving end of a game like that again.

1-1 on the day, 18-5 for the season (78%).

 

[Smacksmiter]

still, very nice work for the season...keep up that good work that you do so well bud..:drink:

 

[Steiner69eR]

Nice AI, I'll still be riding your plays all season long. I lost on the Panthers over, but you can't bet on sports and expect to never lose. No need to apologize, you do great work. Keep it up!

 

[aiverson]

A few numbers.

1

1 is the number of teams w/ a winning record that Cleveland beat last year enroute to their "dominant" 10-6 record

105

105 is the number of losses combined that the teams Cleveland beat had on the season. Their total record was 55-105, or roughly 6-11 on average.

* Road Favs on MNF since 2005 have gone 11-4 ATS, covering by an average of 10 points.
* If a non-divisional game, 6-3 ATS.
* If non-divisional and the line is more than a FG but not double digits, 5-0 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 18 points
* In fact, since 2003, road favorites on a line of more than a FG but less than 10 in a non-divisional game have covered 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU, winning on average by 18 and covering by 12
* Since 2003, the Giants are 10-3 ATS as road favorites. If the line is over 3.5 points, the Giants are 4-2 ATS, covering an 8.5 point average line by 5 points.
* In non-divisional road games since 2005, the Giants are 13-5 ATS including 8-2 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, going 9-1 SU and winning on average by 12 points.
* Since 2005, the Giants are 3-1 ATS on Monday Night, including 2-0 as a favorite. Unders went 3-1 ATS in those games.
* Since 2005, the Browns are 1-3 ATS as a home dog
* Since 2005, the Giants are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in a non-divisional game against a team with a losing record, covering a 6.5 avg line by 5 points.
* 1 win teams coming off a week 5 bye are 2-8 ATS since 2004. If underdogs, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by 19 points and failing to cover by 13.

This is the Giants only MNF game this season. Yes, they have played some easier games this season, but they have performed well. The Browns, on the other hand, have looked bad against some overrated teams (Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens) and their only win came off a game where a 0-6 team:

* started Ryan Fitzpatrick,
* turned the ball over 5 times,
* and still had a lead heading into the 4th quarter

It took 17 4th quarter points by Cleveland to earn a 8 point victory.

I also lean towards the Under here, but will play on the NYG.

Again, this is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover. I have heard from many that Cleveland wins this game. While anything is possible, I see the NYG looking to use tonight's game to stamp themselves on the map as the team to beat. One concern is the kick return ability of Joshua Cribbs, he is a very dangerous weapon.

The Giants have used motivation to get fired up for last season's Super Bowl run, and for some reason, Cleveland was bored in their bye week and contributed some bulletin board material for the Super Bowl Champs:

http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/ny-spgiants105877135oct10,0,4854389.story

Tonight, as rare and as much as I hate to swallow it, I will take the public play and take NYG to win by 8. Late money has come in on Cle to drive this line down. Normally that is a bad thing but it won't be the first nor the last time I ignore line movement and take advantage of a line I think is a good one.

Grab -7 if you can, it may be an option for you. If not, 7.5.

 

[RDTrains]

A few points

1. As you correctly mentioned the Giants have not played a very tough schedule, defeating a winless team (Cincinnati) and two 1-win teams (St Louis & Seattle). In fact, it is the easiest schedule in the NFL by far this season.

Strength of Schedule (as rated by Statfox)

HOU - 23.8 hardest
CLEVE - 21.8 difficult
NO - 18.3 4th easiest
NE - 17.6 3rd easiest
BUFF - 16.6 2nd easiest
NYG - 15.6 easiest in NFL

2. The non-div RF stats are impressive but look what happens if you qualify them with last year's SB Champ for MNF.

Defending SB Champs when non-div RF's are just 3-11 ATS for MNF, including 0-3 SU and ATS when = to/or > .900 record.

3. Didn't see you mention this but Cleve is getting healthier. While it looks like TE Winslow Jr. is doubtful more importantly for Cleveland off their bye week would be the return from injury of LBs Willie McGinest and Beau Bell, WR Dontae Stallworth and OL Ryan Tucker.


Respect your opinion just thought I'd throw my 3 cents in.