Week 6 lines. Some VERY interesting lines this week. Thoughts?

[jblonghorn]

These lines sure seem off to me. Thoughts?

Stanford -1 @ Notre Dame
(I would think a #7 ranked team at home should be favored. Shows you what Vegas thinks. And I pretty much agree. I think ND gets exposed)

LSU @ Auburn -9
(wow; LSU giving 9 to anyone but Alabama is unique. I don't know that Auburn is good yet. Especially 9 points better than LSU. Even though this isn't a typically loaded LSU squad)

OU -6 @ TCU
(what? OU should be closer to 12-14 point faves in Forth Worth. Just my thought). If OU really is the best team in the nation (Herbstreit), they should manhandle a still rebuilding TCU squad.

Florida -1 @ Tennessee
(I feel Tennessee should be a 3-4 point fave at home vs a Florida team that might just quit on Muschamp).

Baylor -13.5 @ Texas
(I thought it'd be 14 so it's right there. Wow. I can't believe I'm typing this. In the 80+ years these teams have been playing this has to be a first (BU favored by 2 TD's over UT). I'd bet this is the most Baylor has ever been favored especially in Austin. And my gut tells me Baylor covers.

Alabama -4 @ Ole Miss
(what? wow. While I guess I understand that Alabama has proven nothing, what this tells me is Vegas doesn't think there's a powerful squad in college football this year. Typically Alabama is easily 10-14 point faves in these types of games).

Texas A&M at Miss St -1
(I understand the line but think Miss. St welcomes A&M to big boy college football. A&M has yet to play a team that's good this year. Arkansas played well but they're not good, and South Carolina now lies outside the top 25).

Nebraska @ Michigan State -7
(probably the game of the weekend. Think the line is just about right. And I think Michigan State covers)

Would love the feedback.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

agree with you on the first few, but then don't really have big opinions later on. i guess i like the mississippi teams at home but not strongly.

agree totally on the stanford. fairly uninspired game yesterday at washington. one thing i will say is that washington's 2nd TD was very very cheap (stripped the ball from a guy after the whistle should have blown and returned for TD) so stanford probably really won that game more comfortably (huge washington fan btw, and i never bet stanford. just calling it as i saw it)...

i think you grammar is backwards on LSU. LSU is taking, NOT giving... but i get the point and agree.............. i think oklahoma is a little below the radar. looks like a good bet to me.

really looking forward to ole miss/alabama. i would take the 4 but don't feel strongly.

 

[Greenbacks]

Air Force coming off a big win against Boise...Letdown...Navy will pound them

Navy -5

Alabama might lose SU...Mississippi will be ready.

Mississippi +4.5

Mississippi St is favored over Texas A&M...lol...A&M are going down.

Mississippi St -1

Kentucky will be ready for S.C....S.C. is on upset alert....+7 is a gift.

Kentucky +7

UCLA will have their hands full with Utah....line is only 12.5....Bruins are a sucker bet.

Utah +12.5

The big bad Sooners are only -5 to TCU....Oklahoma is another sucker bet in my opinion.

TCU +5

Miami sucks....They played well against Duke......This week they get run off the field....Georgia Tech big.

Georgia Tech +1

 

[KDawgg]

Bowling Green -5 at home vs Buffalo. Im not an expert on these teams but Bowling Green should roll.
Wisconsin -8' at Northwestern.
Feels risky but instinct tells me to pay to see the cards... Ala-4 and Okl -4.
Agree with Lsu +9, Gt +1 and Navy -4'.
The ugliest duckling of all smu is at +37', give me another point or so and Ill help the Man balance his action.

 

[mightyminnow]

Oregon st line is a complete fucking mystery to me, somewhat depending on injuries.

 

[rolltide]

Would love the feedback.

personally i like to consult the GOY lines after 3-4 week to see how possibly the public perception (or vegas perception) has been influencing the lines

lots of public and board love for Ole Miss but what have they done to take the GOY line from +9 to +5.5? nothing. Vegas praying on Bama hate and ESPN's dramatization of the next big thing (ole miss)

talk about public perception....Stanford loses one game to SC and now is PK instead of -6? because the domers beat, ahemm, michigan?

well i think we all would have loved the Baylor -3 in GOY but texas has earned those extra 10 points this year....

another wild one is OU. 2 TD in GOY world and now just -6? what has tCU done so far to swing a TD in their favor? nothing

others:
nebraska was +8, not +7 ... why? cause they beat illinois? mich state undervalued i think


actually instead of me going down 1 by 1 i'll just post the GOY lines:
Week 6
Date Away Home
Thursday, Oct. 2 Arizona Oregon (-25)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Louisville (-1) Syracuse
Saturday, Oct. 4 LSU Auburn (-6 ½)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Arizona State USC (-11)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Miami, FL (-4) Georgia Tech
Saturday, Oct. 4 Vanderbilt Georgia (-24)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Wisconsin (-7) Northwestern
Saturday, Oct. 4 Alabama (-9) Mississippi
Saturday, Oct. 4 Virginia Tech North Carolina (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 4 N.C. State Clemson (-23)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Baylor (-3) Texas
Saturday, Oct. 4 Texas A&M Mississippi State (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Texas Tech Kansas State (-7)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Boise State (-6) Nevada
Saturday, Oct. 4 Oklahoma (-14) TCU
Saturday, Oct. 4 Florida (-4 ½) Tennessee
Saturday, Oct. 4 Stanford (-6) Notre Dame
Saturday, Oct. 4 Nebraska Michigan State (-8)

 

[tsm123]

That 'still rebuilding" TCU team you referred to is currently 3-0 su, 3-0 ats.
Save your breath....I already know...weak competition.
I see reasons to take Oklahoma
I see reasons to take TCU
Should be a good one

 

[Skreechy]

Talk about public pounding a line. I could never find a reason to take SMU here. ECU almost scores at will against better competition than this. Wish everyone wasn't on this game because it makes me want to re think it. Fade SMU until they prove otherwise.

 

[RunLeeRun]

others:
nebraska was +8, not +7 ... why? cause they beat illinois? mich state undervalued i think

I don't think Michigan State is undervalued so much as the history between these two teams suggests that it's a tight matchup. Nebraska has been able to run almost at will in three match-ups against defenses that were considered elite (2011, 2012, 2013 all top five in yds/play). This years MSU defense is giving up 5.09 yards/play and are outside the top 40. Even Wyoming popped off some long plays. Now you have Nebraska, which currently sits ONLY behind Oregon, A&M, Alabama (omitting Non-power 5 teams) for yards/play at 7.6, coming into town. That's a favorable match-up for Nebraska's O. On the other hand, MSU probably has it's best offense ever, but it isn't a pound it out team. They like to sling it around too. But what if I told you Michigan's average per run was better than State's? Nebraska tends to defend the pass a lot better than the run. And I'm interested to see how MSU comes out and attacks, because there are typically lanes to run against Nebraska with a linebacker crew that has been very erratic. The thing you don't want to do, is drop back a pass all night especially if you let them play in nickel/dime defense. Nebraska's front 4 is very good in the pass rush and the secondary is pretty solid. MSU does have a nasty crew of WR's though, which should be a huge test for both sides. Something to look out for on Nebraska's defense, they have allow a team to score a td on it's opening possession 4/5 games before settling down. MSU prop to score first could be worth a shot.

 

[Huskers4ever]

I don't think Michigan State is undervalued so much as the history between these two teams suggests that it's a tight matchup. Nebraska has been able to run almost at will in three match-ups against defenses that were considered elite (2011, 2012, 2013 all top five in yds/play). This years MSU defense is giving up 5.09 yards/play and are outside the top 40. Even Wyoming popped off some long plays. Now you have Nebraska, which currently sits ONLY behind Oregon, A&M, Alabama (omitting Non-power 5 teams) for yards/play at 7.6, coming into town. That's a favorable match-up for Nebraska's O. On the other hand, MSU probably has it's best offense ever, but it isn't a pound it out team. They like to sling it around too. But what if I told you Michigan's average per run was better than State's? Nebraska tends to defend the pass a lot better than the run. And I'm interested to see how MSU comes out and attacks, because there are typically lanes to run against Nebraska with a linebacker crew that has been very erratic. The thing you don't want to do, is drop back a pass all night especially if you let them play in nickel/dime defense. Nebraska's front 4 is very good in the pass rush and the secondary is pretty solid. MSU does have a nasty crew of WR's though, which should be a huge test for both sides. Something to look out for on Nebraska's defense, they have allow a team to score a td on it's opening possession 4/5 games before settling down. MSU prop to score first could be worth a shot.

The one time they did stop the opposition on it's opening drive was in their one road game, although that was against a pretty bad fresno team. No doubt this game has a chance to turn into a shootout, even with defensive minds at the helm for both teams. Neb has opened up a lot of holes for Abdullah and co. this year, and I think that will remain key for them to stay in this game. Tommy A. has a strong and accurate arm, but has proven to be prone to mistakes. Can't wait for this one. I'll take the points with Neb but clearly I am biased

 

[bones1980]

Miami -3, Virginia-5, and Baylor -14

 

[sportsfantatic44]

East Carolina now up to 40 at some shops.....wish I could have gotten this at 5 TDs when lines came out.

Baylor's offense looks unstoppable. Can Texas do anything on Baylor's D? I tend to think to lay the big number again w/Baylor. Would Briles call off the dogs like he did 4th Q vs. Iowa State again or stick it to Texas?

At first glance, NC State getting 14.5 at Clemson looks enticing. Was really impressed with State's QB vs. Florida State. Both defenses stink but think State can hang around this game for awhile. Just wonder if State is deflated after being up 24-7 in 1st Q on FSU and coming out flat here. Probably need to look at this more during the week.

On a side note, I can't believe that Rutgers is favored over Michigan. Never thought I would ever see that in my lifetime. Shows how bad Michigan is.

 

[mws]

Clemson's D is actually very good, and this is a big letdown spot for State.

 

[bobbyjones2]

Utah plus the points..not sure what happened against wash state .is the utah qb ok? nasty hit against michigan..regardless..ucla has oregon following week....

stanfords lack of imagination scares me here...shaw..not a good play caller imo...home field and coaching advantage for the irish

bama...u really going to back bo wallace vs saban with 2 weeks to prepare? ole miss secondary? filthy..aint going to be a uf game for the tide..but almost feel as if bama wins by dd here..game day..big game for ole miss..all the hype...distractions?

ut sucks..not sure how they will score points against the baylor d...someone posted the stats in the ut/kansas game..unreal..think briles may light this one up

 

[BernieVegas]

Texas is in for getting an ass whooping this week. BAYLOR will open a can of whoop ass and not let up...

Interesting opening line Oregon Ducks -23 vs Arizona...The same Oregon Ducks that beat an average Washington State team by 7pts. Are they fishing for Arizona money??? I think so....BernieV smells a ROUT!!!

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[alkimyst]

Mich st has certainly been impressive, even in their loss to Oregon.

 

[REDEYE]

Texas is in for getting an ass whooping this week. BAYLOR will open a can of whoop ass and not let up...

Interesting opening line Oregon Ducks -23 vs Arizona...The same Oregon Ducks that beat an average Washington State team by 7pts. Are they fishi


ng for Arizona money??? I think so....BernieV smells a ROUT!!!



Yours in Winners
BernieV

offensive line is still a major problem for Oregon.. AZ + 23 is a bargain

 

[GoSooners]

offensive line is still a major problem for Oregon.. AZ + 23 is a bargain

Agree

 

[tmader7]

Swore off this site hours ago, but can't pass up the first intelligent thread in I don't know how many days. Personally, and I think GS would agree since this was discussed what, about 3 months ago, only a fool would bet either the OU/TCU or Baylor/Texas games, although at this point, I'd be will to play Baylor, Texas is really not good. SINCE, the Texas State Fair is in full swing, and those of us from (ok, only lived in the area for 28 years) the SW know what is on deck, tough spot for either team. As GS pointed out and the country now knows, TCU IS a good team, unlike Texas. So I wouldn't be putting any greenbacks on the Sooners Saturday. I'm already tired of hearing SEC and have only been back in SEC country, albeit just North and East of true SEC country, for four months, but the guy above thinking Kentucky is a play.....GET OVER IT! They're best O player was suspended for the game, and one thing about Spermier (misspelling intended) is he comes back after a loss with a vengeance. I DO LOVE Sparty over the CornShuckers, And will be playing it, anyone with all the sports packages has been able to see Pelini's Po's play, and they aren't anything special. Yeah, one good RB, but guess what, Sparty got a good run D. Wish you all the best, I'll lurk for the rest of the season.

~T~

 

[jblonghorn]

personally i like to consult the GOY lines after 3-4 week to see how possibly the public perception (or vegas perception) has been influencing the lines

lots of public and board love for Ole Miss but what have they done to take the GOY line from +9 to +5.5? nothing. Vegas praying on Bama hate and ESPN's dramatization of the next big thing (ole miss)

talk about public perception....Stanford loses one game to SC and now is PK instead of -6? because the domers beat, ahemm, michigan?

well i think we all would have loved the Baylor -3 in GOY but texas has earned those extra 10 points this year....

another wild one is OU. 2 TD in GOY world and now just -6? what has tCU done so far to swing a TD in their favor? nothing

others:
nebraska was +8, not +7 ... why? cause they beat illinois? mich state undervalued i think


actually instead of me going down 1 by 1 i'll just post the GOY lines:
Week 6
Date Away Home
Thursday, Oct. 2 Arizona Oregon (-25)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Louisville (-1) Syracuse
Saturday, Oct. 4 LSU Auburn (-6 ½)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Arizona State USC (-11)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Miami, FL (-4) Georgia Tech
Saturday, Oct. 4 Vanderbilt Georgia (-24)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Wisconsin (-7) Northwestern
Saturday, Oct. 4 Alabama (-9) Mississippi
Saturday, Oct. 4 Virginia Tech North Carolina (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 4 N.C. State Clemson (-23)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Baylor (-3) Texas
Saturday, Oct. 4 Texas A&M Mississippi State (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Texas Tech Kansas State (-7)
Saturday, Oct. 4 Boise State (-6) Nevada
Saturday, Oct. 4 Oklahoma (-14) TCU
Saturday, Oct. 4 Florida (-4 ½) Tennessee
Saturday, Oct. 4 Stanford (-6) Notre Dame
Saturday, Oct. 4 Nebraska Michigan State (-8)

This is a great way to compare the lines. Genius actually. And proves our points. I love OU even though this is a classic look ahead spot. Don't think they'll be looking ahead on a road game in conference. I like BAYLOR too although reports are that Texas will be getting Daje Johnson back- our most explosive player on the team.