Week 6 insights and #'s

[THEGAME9000]

Once again I am working this weekend, so everything is going up early.
Usually I'll wait to get a little closer to the closing line, so be aware, I'm sure some lines will change by game time.
It just limits me a bit going early but better early than not at all...I guess
Here we go...

Week 6

Den(4.5) at cle 42.5...
Den 9-2 ats in 2nd of b2b rd games s 11
Den 8-3 over in 2nd of b2b rd games s 11
Den 14-4-1 over before a bye s 96

Cin(3) at buf 42.5...
Cin 10-2 ats before playing at Pitt s 03
Cin 5-0 over before playing at Pitt s 10
Buf 10-1-2 ats as a hm dog of 3pts or less s 03
Buf 14-5-1 ats as a non-div home dog s 06
Buf 32-14 ats off a su win of 3pts or less s 92

Kc at min(4) 44...
Kc 11-2 ats in game 6 of reg sea s 02
Min 0-5-1 ats off a bye s 09

Hou at jax(1) 43...
Jax 4-0 ats as a div home fav s 09
Series..road team is 5-1-2 ats last 4 years s 11

Chi at det(3) 43.5...
Chi 0-5 ats last 5 in det s 10
Chi 3-7 ats as div road dogs s 11
Chi 2-14-1 ats after playing afc s 11
Chi 3-11-1 ats off b2b su wins vs opp off b2b su losses s 04
Chi 10-1 over after playing a game decided by 1pt s 91
Det 7-3 ats as div home favs s 10
Det 14-4 over before playing min s 06
Series..det covered 8 of last 10 s 10
...........home team covered 7 of last 9 s 10
...........7 of last 9 in det have went over the total s 06

Was at nyj(7) 40.5...
Was 7-2 ats on the road off b2b ats wins s 07
Ny 4-24 ats before playing at ne s 86
Ny 3-16 under off a bye s 97

Ari(4) at Pitt 44.5...
Ari 0-4 under before playing on mnf s 08
Pitt 2-12 ats off a mnf road game s 98
**pit games vs nfc have averaged 60pts per game s 13, 2 of these 10 games have totaled under 51, and only 1 less than 47pts (this year vs st.l)

Mia at ten(1) 43.5...
Mia 15-4 ats as a road dog of less than 4pts s 08
Ten 4-0-1 over in 3rd straight home game s 07
Ten 17-4 over after scoring and allowing 14pts or less s 98

Car at sea(7) 41...
Car 3-9 under off a bye s 03
Sea 11-0 ats before playing sf s 08
Sea 16-3-1 ats at home before playing a div road game s 07

Sd at gb(10.5) 50.5...
Sd 7-3 ats off 3 straight ats losses s 03
Sd 12-3 ats after playing mnf s 05
Sd 13-5 ats before playing oak s 04
Gb 8-1 su in game 6 of reg sea s 06
Gb 7-0 over before a bye s 08
**home favs of 6.5-15pts before a bye are 34-10 ats s 02

Bal(2) at sf 44...
Bal 4-11 under before mnf s 01
Sf 6-2-1 ats at home vs Afc s 10
Sf 2-13-1 under as home dogs of 4pts or less s 03

Nyg at phi(5) 50...
Ny 7-3 su in game 6 of reg sea s 05
Ny 2-7-1 under before hosting dal s 04
Phi 8-2-1 over on mnf s 08
Series..road team covered 14 of last 20 s 06
..........phi has went 11-3 ats in last 14 games s 08
..........home favs of 3-6.5pts have went 2-10 ats s 01
..........pt totals have been lower in phi 5 of last 6 straight years averaging 38 a game

Week 6


Ari 128
Atl 125
Bal 120
Buf 121
Car 121
Chi 111
Cin 128
Cle 113
Dal 118
Den 127
Det 116
Gb 130
Hou 114
Ind 116
Jax 108
Kc 119
Mia 110
Min 121
Ne 134
No 112
Nyg 123
Nyj 120
Oak 113
Phi 122
Pit 125
Stl 120
Sd 117
Sf 114
Sea 127
Tb 112
Ten 110
Was 115

Cover chart
Pts....home favs.........................road favs.................................home picks
1.......wlp...................................lw.........................................
2.......wwwwww...........................w..........................................
3.......lw......................................l..........................................-3l
4.......wwlww...............................www.....................................-4l
5.......lw......................................l..........................................
6.......pww...................................wlwllw.............................
7.......wp.....................................l..........................................
8.......wlllllw.................................lwwwlw................................
9.......ll.......................................ww.......................................
10.....ll...................................................................................
11.....ll........................................llwwl....................................
12...............................................w...........................................
13...............................................l...........................................
14.....l.........................................l.........................................
15...............................................w........................................
16...............................................www......................................
17...............................................w............................................
18.....w..................................................................................
19.....w..................................................................................
20..........................................................................................
21..........................................................................................
22..........................................................................................
23..........................................................................................
24..........................................................................................
25..........................................................................................

GL


GAME.

 

[Green17]

Thanks Game.
GL this week.

 

[THEGAME9000]

 

[TomandJerry]

As many remember, when it is early in the season it would help to decide who was going to cover ats and fail to cover ats by breaking up categories like.....
All favorites of 2pts or less................8-2 ats
All favorites of 4pts..........................6-1 ats
All favorites of 15+pts......................5-0 ats
Home favorites of 2pts or less............6-1 ats
Home favorites of 7pts or less............14-4-2 ats
Home favorites of 8-10pts..................1-8 ats
Road favorites of 4pts........................3-0 ats
Road favorites of 15+pts....................3-0 ats

But seeing as it's week 5 with plenty of game results under its belt, the chart is already getting pretty specific so individual #'s should take priority.

 

[TomandJerry]

thanks GAME; I just brought the total spread from last week in here to make a little more infor.

 

[TomandJerry]

only 2 plays MIN and SEA ????????

 

[THEGAME9000]

thanks GAME; I just brought the total spread from last week in here to make a little more infor.

Those figures need to be updated....
It's all good but people might take them literally, count the #'s, find they don't add up and make a big deal of it, especially if they're not reg readers...
But I get your helping....
Gl this week my friend.

GAME.

 

[TomandJerry]

only 2 plays MIN and SEA ????????

could adding New England.

Is it right?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Don't like Seattle or the Vikings this week.......I do like the Patriots!

Good luck Game......

So there are only 3 plays? Or are there more?

 

[THEGAME9000]

If you look absolutely at it you can see there are literally 7 + choices, it's just the strength of them that is in question, Thursday's game for instance had atl as a rd fav of 13...0-1 ats on the year, now 0-2.... If you just look for cherry picking there is only 1 play.
Some weeks there are 9 plays, some weeks 2....you never know until the adjustments are made at the end of each week.
To quote dre..."it is what it is"
Home team picks have yet to cover, no home favs between 9 and 14 pts have covered yet, you can make it anything you want, but I find once you start getting to week 6,7,8 it's better to be specific, or better yet let it be specific for you.
It's all about the strength of the past results based on amount of times it happened and the repetitive result.
Throw in trends, weather, injuries, etc...you should be able (with some luck) to make a decision on who has the best chance to cover.
Just my way of doing it, everybody's method differs...

Bottom line other than the mathematical end, it's all just guesswork.

GAME.

 

[TheSubstitute]

Would the Dolphins be a play?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

If you look absolutely at it you can see there are literally 7 + choices, it's just the strength of them that is in question, Thursday's game for instance had atl as a rd fav of 13...0-1 ats on the year, now 0-2.... If you just look for cherry picking there is only 1 play.
Some weeks there are 9 plays, some weeks 2....you never know until the adjustments are made at the end of each week.
To quote dre..."it is what it is"
Home team picks have yet to cover, no home favs between 9 and 14 pts have covered yet, you can make it anything you want, but I find once you start getting to week 6,7,8 it's better to be specific, or better yet let it be specific for you.
It's all about the strength of the past results based on amount of times it happened and the repetitive result.
Throw in trends, weather, injuries, etc...you should be able (with some luck) to make a decision on who has the best chance to cover.
Just my way of doing it, everybody's method differs...

Bottom line other than the mathematical end, it's all just guesswork.

GAME.

Thanks for the explanation Game......to me, from.what you've mentioned, the Chargers +10.5 is a strong play.......the Vikings look like a strong play as well.

 

[THEGAME9000]

#'s aside, there are some sick trends that go this week, you may remember my paycheck plays, that goes this week on the was/ny game with the jets covering in this spot 4 times in the last almost 30 years, or buff as a small home dog,(usually money), or Pitt off a Monday night road game...all plays that have paid consistently over long periods of time...just sayin...

 

[TheComputerGroup]

#'s aside, there are some sick trends that go this week, you may remember my paycheck plays, that goes this week on the was/ny game with the jets covering in this spot 4 times in the last almost 30 years, or buff as a small home dog,(usually money), or Pitt off a Monday night road game...all plays that have paid consistently over long periods of time...just sayin...

Good stuff Game, thanks man......& the Skins are a good play this week......I'm trying to middle that Bills game & the Cards should hammer the Steelers.

 

[pgcluu]

How about the Patriots this wk? next wk they host Jets at home, is it your annual paycheck? thanks

 

[THEGAME9000]

Good stuff Game, thanks man......& the Skins are a good play this week......I'm trying to middle that Bills game & the Cards should hammer the Steelers.

barring a 1st play from scrimmage catastrophic key injury or freak weather condition this 6-team parlay should click

Minnesota
Under Minnesota
Arizona
Over Arizona
New England
Over New England

GAME.

 

[predman]

Nice work GAME !!!
GLUCK to ALL

 

[RoughingThePasser]

Loving some of these stats this week! Detroit has so many in their favor its hard not to bet the mortgage on them, besides the fact they are the Lions. The Jets overlook teams to prepare for the Patriots, and then finally a high flying Cards team against a Steelers squad that hardly covers off of MNF game.

Wash
Az
Det


How about this bad boy O/U parlay. I follow to where history leads me:

U SF/Balt
O Den/Clev
O Ten/Mia
O Chi/Det

GL and thanks for the insights.(

 

[THEGAME9000]

RTP....

In 2007 the Ravens were beat by the Browns in Balt 33-30 and also went down to sf, gave them 3.5pts and came away with a monster win...9-7...like it
Last time den went down to Cleveland spread was 3, total was 46, score was 34-30
Last time Mia came back from London spread was 1.5, total was 46.5, score was 27-24
Last 3 times Detroit invited Chicago to come over to their house...52pts,72pts, and 50pts...this weeks game total..."42.5"...

Yeah...I think you got a little leading history in the o/u parlay...they say if you forget history, you're doomed to repeat it...no problem!
We'll take it.

GL

GAME.

 

[jaxfactor]

You are the man Game! Thanks for posting these- I will absolutely be on the Skins today - that trend is crazy!