Week 6: Early Plays

[ofred]

Northwestern +8.5 In a defensive struggle, this is too many to give an improving offense like NW. Michigan benefitted from a quitting Md. team and an exhausted BYU team.

Washington St. +18 I doubt Adams plays again or is effective. The Cougs should have beat Cal(too many mistakes) and usually give the Ducks a tough game. Their passing attack should keep WSU in the game the whole game.

 

[REDEYE]

love NW in this spot.... Like Wash St too but wouldn't be surprised that this line goes to 20....

 

[RunLeeRun]

Id be tempted to take Wisconsin while they are a dog or pk, dont expect that for long. Their defense is very good. Nebraska is a mess, physically and mentally. They freeze when games are tight (coaches included) plus they have to deal with the past deamons of some very bad defeats to Wisconsin. It's close to teetering toward the path Texas is on. From there it's pile on time.

 

[BrewMan]

Id be tempted to take Wisconsin while they are a dog or pk, dont expect that for long. Their defense is very good. Nebraska is a mess, physically and mentally. They freeze when games are tight (coaches included) plus they have to deal with the past deamons of some very bad defeats to Wisconsin. It's close to teetering toward the path Texas is on. From there it's pile on time.

The thing to watch with Wisconsin is if WR Alex Erickson will play. He left yesterday's game with a concussion. Wisconsin's running game is nothing like it has been in the past without Corey Clement and Erickson is their only dependable receiver. If he doesn't play, Wisconsin will struggle to score (more than they already will without Clement).

 

[RunLeeRun]

How big of a loss is Traylor?

 

[ofred]

Northwestern and Michigan both have stellar defenses, though Michigan has the edge statistically. Both also have serviceable QBs that are a bit turnover prone. Running games are both decent. Very impressed by how NW rises to the occasion and to the level of who they're playing….Beat Stanford, a team that looks to be favored to win the PAC 12….on the road at Duke, a 9 point victory…. blows out Minnesota, a team that at least has a good D. Michigan lost to the best team they played (Utah) although first games on the road are always tough. They beat BYU impressively, but BYU was playing their 3rd road game and their 4th tough opponent in 4 weeks. Michigan, even with all of their defensive stops (a lot of 3 and outs), has not offensively clicked all that often. NW has the younger QB, but Thorson is the much better runner. NW is well coached, as is Michigan. NW can win, I'll take the points with a great D, and the smarter guys in purple.

 

[ofred]

Oregon recovered from their Utah shellacking, but don't be fooled. Colorado is that bad. Colorado has been the PAC 12 cellar dweller recruitment wise since joining the conference. They lost to a dreadful Hawaii team, a team that has been shutout 3 times, and gave up 500 yards to a mediocre CSU team. Really, the Buffs are more like an average Mt. West team, and their QB Liufau(who is pretty good) has been playing with an injured throwing shoulder. Oregon is NOT back. The Ducks are the Royce Freeman Show. He can knock over guys for the big yardage, but they no longer have the speed guy- like Byron Marshall, or worse- Mariota. Mariota was THAT good, beyond great, and this year's QB play is about 5 notches below where he was. They've also lost their swagger defensively and that will hurt them vs. a spread offense like Wazzu. Their secondary is young, tackles poorly in the open field, and is missing one of their experienced players- Chris Seisay. Wazzu spreads a D, catches short, and runs after the catches-a lot! 18 points is a gift in a game where WSU has an outside chance of winning.

 

[bigike]

NW starts a RFRESHMAN qb. Michigan's defense should ear him up. Mich starts a fifth year senior qb. There is a reason Vegas opened this line -12. Even us Michigan folks were floored with the line. I think Vegas knows something.

 

[ofred]

NW starts a RFRESHMAN qb. Michigan's defense should ear him up. Mich starts a fifth year senior qb. There is a reason Vegas opened this line -12. Even us Michigan folks were floored with the line. I think Vegas knows something.

Vegas knows that the public loves betting teams like Michigan. The line opened at 10 in most places, and the sharp money instantly bet it down to 8.5, now 8. Rudock transferred because he was going to lose his job at Iowa, and while he has regressed recently, Thorson has looked better of late. Anyways, Michigan also has MSU next week. Probably not a look ahead, but they know it's the BIG game.

 

[BlueRiot]

Great stuff Fred, thanks for the early takes... Not sure why someone started talking about Wiscy/Neb though... GL

 

[RunLeeRun]

Great stuff Fred, thanks for the early takes... Not sure why someone started talking about Wiscy/Neb though... GL

Oh, so sorry. I made the mistake thinking this was a general open thread. Didnt realize it was fred's pick thread. You part timers should be more articulate or a little cleaner with your sep-jan clutter.

 

[ofred]

Oh, so sorry. I made the mistake thinking this was a general open thread. Didnt realize it was fred's pick thread. You part timers should be more articulate or a little cleaner with your sep-jan clutter.

I'm fine with any input on any game. Got me looking at the Wisconsin game.

 

[varkeyboy]

Love the Northwestern play. Could be a homer play for me as well! FITZ always has this team ready to play. Perfect example of your players BELIEVING in your coach.

 

[Greenbacks]

Why in the world is N.W. catching 8.5 points???

Good luck fred!

 

[bigike]

Everybody loves NW, I mean everybody. I'm a season ticket holder to mich and have many many alums as friends. Everyone I talk to and everyone on this board thinks the line is crazy. That makes me think something is not right....this is a trap if I've ever seen one.

 

[SerfCap]

I like Michigan a lot in this spot and it will be a nice sized play for me, but I'm waiting for the line to drop some more.

With you on the Cougars though.

 

[ofred]

Write-ups to follow:

La.Tech -10 (-120)

Nebraska/ Wisconsin- under 49

 

[ofred]

La. Tech: This line will climb, I think. UTSA is down to their 4th string QB, although the 2 guys in front of him (both who quit the team) were nothing special. Dalton Sturm has good legs and I think that'll be a big part of UTSA's offense. He'll need them as UTSA's OL has been terrible. Their starting QB was beaten and battered last week by UTEP (yes, UTEP). The UTSA running game was fairly poor vs. the better teams they played, but good vs. UTEP and Col. St. UTSA only returns 5 starters total and is very young. Their offense might score a bit with a more mobile QB, but the main reason I like this game is…..

LT has a very dynamic offense. Jeff Driskel has reclaimed his career there and is a dual threat partly because RB Dixon is such a handful. This offense is a handful as in dropping 450 yards at Kansas State. They have a bevy of receivers, all experienced, that I think will give UTSA fits. These 2 teams had a very chippy game last year that will prevent LT from looking ahead. LT just has too much offense for UTSA to keep up. I can see a 40-17 type of game here.

And if Sturm gets hurt behind this OL, they'll rip off the redshirt on their 5th stringer.

 

[indiana]

Fred............solid looking card, nice write ups...........BOL with all your action this week..............indy

 

[ofred]

Fred............solid looking card, nice write ups...........BOL with all your action this week..............indy

Thanks Indy. I could use a solid week.