- Michigan state at Rutgers : Sparty didn't look so good against Purdue, in fact I think they're play calling has been out of whack all season and they're still trying to find something consistent. They always have WR who consistently work well on the underneath routes and give cook a lot of options but eventually they're going to need to establish some sort of vertical passing game to compliment the run and dink and dunk passing attack...Rutgers is pretty bad as we all know and spartys defense should wrap them up easily but here's where it gets interesting.... Sparty goes to Rutgers and has Michigan at Michigan next week. The big house is going to be absolutely nuts and I'm certain both teams are already prepping in some ways for this game. Michigan will be focused on a good northwestern team and harbaugh will have them focused on that game first, because that's going to be a very physical game with little offense and a lot of defense. A fg could be the difference, and likely will, so I expect the wolverines to come ready to play. Sparty on the other hand could easily win this game by 30 and I think they know that, but I don't think they will play that way... The line is at -15 for Sparty and if drops to -14 then they are the play.... Should be interesting to see which way the line swings... Heavy action on Sparty could warrant a big play for Rutgers in a look ahead scenario.
- Tcu has already moved to -9 and they are headed to k state. I think this line may get to -10 or more and k state is definitely the play. The public and most bettors in general love favorites and love those who score a lot against bad teams. Tcu is flashy and will garner a lot of bets, but k state is the most physical big 12 team every year in my opinion, especially defensively. They are typically the most disciplined as well. After tcu killed a bad Texas team last week they should have a ton of money dumped on them and this line is looking VERY APPEALING if it keeps going against k state... Love me some home dogs who play good defense and are a consistent team week in and week out.
- Washington state at Oregon is intriguing indeed... Smart money jumped on the line at +18 or +17.5 because obviously wazoo is a passing attack that airs it out and the ducks are awful in the secondary. The ducks QB situation is a traveling circus at this point so they are going to lean on the running game HEAVIL. You should expect to see Oregon incorporate much more option play in their running scheme And wazoo is bad defensively so Oregon should have their way with them on the ground ... Here's where it gets fun.... The line is already down to -16.5 for Oregon and i would imagine that it will drop all the way down to -14 by the end of the week. This is perfect because the ducks own mike leach and know how to play against his scheme. They don't necessarily stop the coughs offense completely but they win every year. This game is back in the friendly confines of autzen and I'm POSITIVE the ducks are itching to redeem themselves in front of their home crowd and put on a show. I expect Oregon to basically drop 6-7 every play and still get a lot of pressure on their QB Faulk. Eventually he will turn the ball over at least once if not twice. That's all Oregon will need... People will love wazoo in this matchup but I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon handle the cougs and win by 21-24, although the I think they only win by 14-17... I'll let the public bet Oregon down and scoop them up again. Just waiting for the right line
- Temple and Toledo have both dropped to -15.... Very intriguing... Those are two to watch closely as well, especially Toledo
The Ducks barely won at Pullman last year, scoring the winning TD with 5 min. left- being heavily favored. 2 years ago, when WSU really sucked, Wazzu also covered at Autzen with a 2 TD back door cover. And both of these games were WITH Mariota and a much better secondary/ defense. I watched the Colorado game and was not that impressed. Oregon might WANT to redeem themselves, and no doubt they'll run effectively on the Cougs, but giving up even 14 in this game would be too much considering Oregon's issues.
All ll of your points are valid and you can't argue against them, but why did Vegas set the line at -18 in favor of Oregon? Factor in 3 points for home field advantage and they leads me to believe Vegas thinks Oregon is two touchdowns better than the cougs... Sometimes I look between the lines and at things like schedule, momentum, confidence, rivalry games, injuries etc.... These are how most of my plays are made. I've only been betting on sports for three years now but each of the first two seasons have been positive.... And so far this year I'm up a little more than where I started. Last two weeks have been much better and I'm starting to get a feel for teams.
Wazoo comes off a tough loss at cal and now is going to autzen. They've played a bunch of below average teams and lost to fcs Portland state. Their wins came against Rutgers by 3 and Wyoming lol.... This program is not good defensively and mentally are in a bad spot. Oregon has a little mojo back and the defense is getting pressure on the QB again while only rushing 3-4... Pressure on the QB with 6-8 guys in coverage spells trouble in my opinion... The ducks are the play of this line drops to -14 otherwise it's a wazoo cover in my opinion.
I'm a fan of certain teams, and I know I tend to overrate my teams due to my bias and hope. Both of us watch the Ducks, but I think you're a much bigger fan. Is it possible that the Ducks are just an average PAC 12 team? Mariota was beyond incredible, they miss Marshall, Tyner, Carrington, etc. and the defense looks very weak vs. the pass(at least in my observations). I agree that Freeman will give Wazzu trouble, but I also think the Coug passing attack gives Oregon's D trouble. Falk is passing at 72.6%, with 10 TDs and 1 int. Just my 2 cents.
I love that you're an Oregon fan first off lol. And yes, the ducks are average this season. They are average because of how incredibly young and inexperienced their secondary is. I still firmly believe that Oregon and USC possess the best skill players on offense in the conference and no other team is really close. Some people will try to argue for ASU or UCLA, some even talk about the cougs WR but I don't buy it... Oregon and USC are loaded with playmakers. The obvious difference is USC has a great QB; we have a good injured QB and inferior backups.
I love hearing other fans interpretations of our team and trying to see what they see thru their vantage point, so I value this conversation greatly. Mariota will never be replaced and that's just something that every Oregon fan will take a decade to get over lol. But this team is still decent. The offense alone is capable of beating quality teams if the defense can be opportunistic and force a couple turnovers a game. I'm not saying they are the best team in the pac 12 or that they will now easily win the conference. I've already eaten my crow for saying that earlier this year after Stanford laid an egg against northwestern, now look at them... Still don't entirely understand how they are scoring 50+ a game by running the football thru one guy and then throwing 40 yard play action bombs lol but oh well... Stanford will likely lose one more game this year, but who that's too I have zero clue. Oregon could do it, but it would take a monster defensive effort from them.
i expect the ducks to beat the cougs, Huskies, and the beavs... Beating cal would be great too but I don't expect them to beat Stanford... I don't think ASU is that good and the ducks have a great shot at beating them, although I see that being a very high scoring game
Michigan St only -14 to Rutgers.....What the fuck...LOL
Hahahah WOW! The only think I can think is that the sharps dropped some coin on them after seeing Purdue play them close and now expecting a look ahead scenario for next week at Michigan and the big house..... But I'll likely be dropping a fat one on that line in favor of Sparty ripping them apart. They tend to focus on each week, and don't typically make mistakes to look ahead.
They never cover though quack...0-5 ATS this season.....They should kill that team I agree.....But that line smells like shit.
Good luck!
Why would you expect it to be higher? Michigan State has played five games this year, and none of those performances was good enough to cover 14 at Rutgers. This line should be 9 or 10 before you factor in Rutgers coming off a bye and Michigan State possibly looking ahead to Michigan. A fair line is probably Michigan State -5.
The he only way Sparty would be a -5 favorite would be if cook was out. -17 is about right in my opinion. I believe Sparty is still trying to figure things out offensively like Ohio state. Eventually they should bust thru and start catching not stride. Rutgers isn't as good as Purdue so there's no reason to think the line should be under 14. Putting a line less than 10 would generate so much money on Sparty the books would be crushed if they covered.... Literally crushed
Kansas State's QB situation is up in the air. I agree they will likely slow down TCU, but with this many injuries, you might want to avoid the game.
Quarterback is the main area of concern. Snyder joked that defensive tackle Will Geary was getting a look, but if Cook is unable to play and Banks is still ill when the Wildcats play No. 2 TCU on Saturday the next man up behind Hubener would be Davidson, a redshirt freshman from Harrisonville, Mo.
“We have no options,” Snyder said. “That’s not going against anything Zach does, Zach is just young and inexperienced in the offense. He’s still got a lot to learn so we have to do a good job being able to define all the things he can do and does do well and has a good grasp of and make sure we don’t get out of that box.”
I'm leaning very strongly on doing this also.
The Michigan State - Rutgers game has mismatch written all over it. I think the line is at -14 because odds-makers and early bettors are overreacting to how the Spartans did against Purdue.
Michigan State will most likely NOT be looking ahead to Michigan. Coaches there will have their kids focused at the task at hand.
I realize the Spartans are 0-5 ATS this season, but I don't let technical stats sway my selection process. It's just one of many variables to consider. I focus more on fundamental handicapping. Huge talent disparity between these two teams. Technical stats are great, but they should be used as a guide post and not a hitching post.
I think MSU puts on a clinic and blast Rutgers by a minimum 21 to 24.
My goodness, You are in some dire straits when your best option at QB is a banged up Hubener and you are facing one of the best QBs in the country in Boykin. If anyone can pull this off it would be the old guru Snyder, but I think this might be too much to ask even for him although I have certainly considered that option.
I think the Michigan State line is pretty fair for the most part, I had it a tad under 14 but close enough imo. Spartans have had a bunch of injuries on their o-line three offensive tackles - Kodi Kieler, Jack Conklin and Dennis Finley - have been sidelined with injuries and All-America center Jack Allen has to swing out to play left tackle. Their retooled secondary has struggled as well, in that Central Michigan game it looked like there were open receivers all over the field. Sparty dropped from #4 to #2 in the polls so I wonder if that might motivate them some this week? Looks like this will be their first time leaving the state of Michigan this year, maybe that is a good thing, could be a little too fat and happy at home. Rutgers is really the only side I would consider here, but I'm just not sure they are playable as I have not seen them play this year. Their QB only has 3 TDs to 5 Picks and they still have a bunch of guys suspended including their coach although I heard their stud receiver has been re-instated so that should help. I'm tempted to fade Michigan State until they cover, but there are so many uncertainties in this game and Rutgers only scored 27 points against Kansas two weeks ago, although they did have close to 500 yards of offense.
